The Impact of Kyler Murray's Extension
While the Cardinals QB didn't get every penny guaranteed, he raised the bar for QB contracts in other aspects.
The eventful NFL offseason continued this past week with the Arizona Cardinals signing quarterback Kyler Murray to a five-year extension.
Murray, in terms of APY salary, will be the second-highest paid quarterback in the NFL, just surpassing DeShaun Watson. On the other hand, he didn't get the full $230.5M guaranteed upon signing (though, from a practical standpoint, he could collect the full amount).
Murray's full guarantees, however, surpass Aaron Rodgers by about $3M and his total guarantees surpass Rodgers by about $11M.
As for cash flow and new money, I will let you read Jason Fitzgerald's excellent breakdown of Murray's contract. Murray comes just behind Dak Prescott in terms of the first new year of money. Remember that Murray was under contract with the Cardinals for 2022 and 2023, so the new money is important.
The Cardinals were able to structure the signing bonus so that, in 2028, they would have no dead money if they choose to move on. However, it's likely that the Cardinals could restructure his deal at some point.
That's because Murray will see his cap hit jump to $51.8M in 2024. That's the point at which the NFL is expected to see more money come in from its TV deals, plus should be past the effects of negotiations amid COVID, in which the NFL and NFLPA agreed to borrow a bit against future cap years to keep the 2021 cap from dropping too much.
If the Cardinals were to do a restructure, 2024 might be the best year to do it, once they know how high the cap will be. Or they could wait until 2025, when Murray will have an $11.9M roster bonus due.
As far as the impact goes for the Cardinals, they have been a team that typically doesn't spend a lot of money. Before the Murray deal was completed, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of cash spending. They'll come a bit up the rankings with the Murray deal, but it will be future years when they will have more money to pay to Murray.
The deal turned out to be good for Murray overall, even if he didn't get every penny fully guaranteed. I believe it does indicate that teams are not going to give every quarterback a fully guaranteed contract unless that QB manages to get to free agency, or we have another situation in which a team trades a QB and lets that QB pick his team.
However, the APY salary effect is clear. It means that my belief that Lamar Jackson might come in just below the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen isn't going to be realized. While Jackson may not be better than Mahomes or Allen, I would put him ahead of Murray. Jackson is thus in clear position to get a higher APY salary.
Also, because the full guarantees exceeded what Rodgers got, it's hard to see Jackson taking less in full guarantees. While I don't expect a big jump, Jackson has every reason to try for $47M APY with at least $105M fully guaranteed and close to $165M in total guarantees.
The Ravens are the team that all eyes will be upon, because it's going to be harder to argue against raising the bar in certain aspects. They are free to say that Jackson shouldn't get every penny guaranteed, but they can't hold the line so easily on other contract elements.