The Lamar Jackson Saga and Other Thoughts
As the NFL free agency period is about to begin, plenty of developments happened in the past few days. Let's review some of them.
Monday is the day when NFL free agency more or less begins. Though the actual start day is Wednesday, we get the so-called "legal tampering" period in which teams are allowed to negotiate with agents for all players, regardless of which team the player was on in 2022.
As we near that day, we've already had multiple moves take place that have been the subject of much discussion. It may very well be that these moves are the ones that headline free agency because some may say the current crop of players isn't particularly strong.
Setting that aside, let's look at what has happened thus far and what else we may expect in the coming days:
Lamar Jackson Gets The Non-Exclusive Tag
A lot of people wondered what the Ravens were doing when they decided to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. After all, now a team can sign him to an offer sheet that, if the Ravens don't match it, all they can get is two first-round picks, when if they used the exclusive tag, they could have received more in a trade.
Then some raised their eyebrows when multiple teams declared that they had no interest in Jackson. Some even believe this must be a sign of collusion.
On one hand, you can't rule out collusion. On the other hand, it's difficult to prove collusion even if some think otherwise. But regardless of what one believes, we do need to ask ourselves if Jackson's reported insistence on a five-year, fully guaranteed contract like DeShaun Watson received is realistic and, just as importantly, if there's a better way for Jackson to come out ahead on the business side of football.
First of all, we all need to remember about how the Watson contract went down. The Texans, once they decided to trade Watson, gave Watson permission to visit with interested teams and choose where to go while the Texans negotiated trade compensation.
The Browns, Falcons, Panthers and Saints all had interest. Watson talked with the teams, ruled out the Browns first, then the Panthers. As he decided between the Falcons and Saints, the Browns made the five-year, fully guaranteed contract offer. Neither the Falcons nor Saints would do the same, so Watson took what the Browns offered.
It's easy to say that the Falcons and Saints weren't willing to give Watson that deal because of the sexual assault lawsuits filed against him. However, if that was a concern about a fully guaranteed deal, why was it not a concern about giving up multiple draft picks (including multiple firsts) and having to rework the contract to some degree to fit it under the cap?
There was no chance that the Texans would just trade him for a conditional 2023 pick, nor that Watson would agree to renegotiate his deal so the acquiring team could move on after one or two seasons. Teams would have to risk a lot to get Watson, so if the sexual assault lawsuits were a concern, that concern applies in all instances, not just when it comes to the contract the Browns offered.
In other words, with the Falcons and Saints, their issue was simply about not wanting to offer that five-year, fully guaranteed deal. Therefore, it's not hard to figure out they wouldn't do the same thing with Jackson. Watson's legal issues had nothing to do with it.
With that said, there are ways for Jackson to win the business side of football without having to get the Watson deal. Other quarterbacks have shown ways to work the business side to their favor.
Kyler Murray's contract favors him more than the team, because the language means the team will either have to guarantee more money to him over time or let him go at the start of free agency when he's in a better position to find another team.
Dak Prescott's contract was for four years, an important aspect for him because it would allow him to negotiate a better contract down the road, thus giving him a chance to capitalize on rising salaries for QBs.
Finally, there's Kirk Cousins, who won the business side of football by getting a three-year deal that had almost every dollar fully guaranteed, then took advantage of the cap hits to get even more money along the way. Cousins has netted himself $215M over five years, averaging $43M per year, despite never being an elite QB.
Now imagine what happens if Jackson instead decides to push for three years, fully guaranteed. Not only might be in position to get $150M over three years, he could take advantage of what happens when other QBs come up for extensions.
There's Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, possibly Tua Tagovailoa, possibly Justin Fields, maybe even Trey Lance if he comes back strong from injury. Then there's Prescott with his deal expiring in 2025. All of these are potential situations that could further drive up the cost for keeping a quarterback — and that, in turn, drives up the cost for future contracts handed out.
In other words, the smart thing for Jackson to do is utilize the Cousins strategy. Yes, there's risk involved, and yes, Jackson's past two seasons ended early because of injury. But we also saw that the Ravens had more trouble winning games when Jackson was out of the lineup than they did when he was playing. Furthermore, Jackson is younger than Cousins and a better quarterback overall.
Therefore, instead of Jackson chasing after the Watson deal, he should try a different strategy: Give me three years, fully guaranteed, equal to at least the non-exclusive franchise tag over that period and dare to tell me you would never use three straight tags on a quarterback who has proven he makes his team better and has won an MVP award on top of that.
It's easy to go for the biggest prize, but sometimes you want the prize that, while smaller at first, becomes bigger down the road. Jackson has a chance to set the tone for future QB negotiations in a way that ensures he and other QBs can truly maximize their earnings. That may be a bigger victory than getting the Watson deal.
Bears Trade The No. 1 Overall Pick
The Bears made their decision with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, sending it to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for multiple picks over the next three seasons, plus wide receiver DJ Moore.
The trade means that the Bears intend to move forward with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. They also got a proven wide receiver in the trade, can still add a potential impact player this year and be in position to add more next year. And if things don't work out with Fields, they are in a good position to get another quarterback in the 2024 draft.
The Panthers, meanwhile, can get the quarterback they want in 2023. They also cleared some cap space so they can utilize free agency as needed. They still have a second-round pick this year, along with four other picks, so they have enough draft capital to add talent.
I do consider this a trade that worked out well for both teams. The only question that remains is what each team does moving forward. That will really tell the tale about how things work out for both teams.
Three Quarterbacks Sign New Contracts
Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Geno Smith all agreed to new contracts. Carr, who the Raiders released, signed with the Saints, while Jones will stay with the Giants and Smith will stay with the Seahawks.
Carr joins a team that has been doing as much as it can to "keep the band together" following Drew Brees' retirement. Some of the restructures the Saints have done have been out of necessity, but in other cases, they've been hanging onto players for probably longer than they should have.
But the Saints did well by keeping Carr at the low-end for starting quarterbacks in terms of salary. Carr is a good-but-not-great quarterback and he'll get less money than other QBs who would be in that second tier.
The Saints have made a clear two-year commitment to Carr and he does have some money protected in 2025, but still an amount that would make it practical for the Saints to cut him if they don't think he's performing as expected.
I think the Saints did well here. The fact that they didn't have to trade for Carr is a plus because they still have draft capital to fill out the roster. They still need to make a couple of moves to get under the cap and will have to watch where things go in the future.
Smith, meanwhile, took a contract that Over the Cap's Jason Fitzgerald described as a bridge between thanking Smith for his performance in 2022 and a low-end starting QB contract. I would agree with that assessment because the Saints, while rewarding Smith to an extent, didn't pay him as a low-end starter.
The contract does provide some protection for Smith in 2024. Either the Seahawks will have to guarantee him money that year or release him before the 2024 league year starts. Though the Seahawks would likely release Smith if he doesn't play well in 2023, he at least gets a better chance to find another team at a salary for a top backup.
The Seahawks could still think about drafting a quarterback, given that they have the No. 5 overall pick from the Russell Wilson trade. However, if they are unable to find one they like at No. 5 overall, they could still go the route of drafting a QB in 2024.
As for Jones, the Giants treated him more like the quarterback they intend to build around for at least the next couple of seasons. I'm not sure that is what they intended to do going into 2022, but that's how things have evolved.
I imagine the Giants were thinking about the 2023 QB draft class but, after making the playoffs, they had to rethink their approach. They do have 11 total picks but perhaps not enough capital to make a big jump up the board. And though a QB could slide down the board, the Giants may not have found a QB they thought was worth taking a chance.
While I wasn't an advocate for using the franchise tag on Jones, if the Giants truly believed that better options weren't out there, I could understand why they'd tag him. Instead, we have what is a clear cash commitment for Jones for the next two seasons.
As Fitzgerald notes, the Giants paid him more than the tag over the next two seasons. And while it's true the Giants have an out after 2024, to avoid paying the injury-only guaranteed salary, they would have to bench Jones in 2024 if he struggles early.
The question to be answered is how well Jones plays in 2023. He did some good things this past season but, when I watched him in the playoffs, I saw him as a tier three QB who may not be as good as Cousins, Ryan Tannehill or even Jimmy Garoppolo in their primes. If he doesn't develop further, the Giants could have a problem, particularly if other NFC teams improve and become, at least, legitimate wild card contenders.
Brian Daboll certainly deserves credit for getting the most out of his players in 2022. But now comes the task of demonstrating he can keep the Giants in the playoff hunt. And to do that, he'll have to find more ways to get the most out of a limited QB.