The Lamar Jackson Saga Ends, Then The NFL Draft Saga Follows
Thoughts about the Jackson deal, the Texans bold draft move and other NFL draft headlines.
There's never a shortage of storylines coming out of the NFL draft and 2023 is no exception. And one of the big storylines came out before the draft got underway, as Lamar Jackson signed a new contract with the Ravens.
I'll get to the draft later, but let's talk about Jackson first. He has agreed to terms on a five-year, $260M contract. As some will say, he's now the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. As others will say, thought, the details are what matter.
We don't know the details yet about Jackson's contract, but we do have details about the five-year, $255M contract extension that Jalen Hurts signed.
Regarding Hurts, I'll let you read Jason Fitzgerald's breakdown of that contract. Again, we don't know the terms of Jackson's contract, but it wouldn't surprise me if the contract might have a similar structure to Hurts.
Hurts didn't get every dollar fully guaranteed but he got a contract structure that gives him a lot of protection. As Fitzgerald wrote, Hurts got $153M virtually guaranteed and $179M guaranteed for injury, plus the contract is structured in a way that makes it difficult for the Eagles to move on from Hurts early in the deal.
Additionally, while the no-trade clause doesn't guarantee that the Eagles never trade Hurts, it does give Hurts control in that he has to approve a trade the Eagles want to make. He thus has some control over where he goes if the Eagles do want to trade him.
It won't surprise me if Jackson got a contract structure that protects him, in that it becomes difficult for the Ravens to move on from him early in the deal. And while there have been no reports about him getting a no-trade clause, it's possible he received that.
In other words, Jackson ultimately got a deal that, while it didn't give him every dollar fully guaranteed, likely is favorable to him in certain aspects. I would be surprised if the contract details all favor the Ravens.
And while I can understand that a player agent can be helpful in contract negotiations, it's fair to ask if an agent's role is overstated. Jackson got a deal done well before the deadline to sign franchised players to new contracts. The Hurts deal no doubt pushed him to get a deal done, but he likely saw some of the details in the Hurts deal and used that to guide him in his own negotiations.
Now with Jackson having come to terms. all eyes turn to Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. We are just days away from when teams must decide on exercising fifth-year options. Doing so for Burrow and Herbert is a no-brainer, but will their current teams get a deal done before that deadline?
The Texans' Bold Draft Day Move
I didn't follow the draft as closely this year, mainly because I'm a Broncos fan and they didn't draft until day two. But I do have a few thoughts about some of the bold moves that happened on draft day.
First, there's the Texans, who not only took quarterback CJ Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick, then sent a lot of draft capital to get the No. 3 overall pick so they could add pass rusher Will Anderson.
Fitzgerald wrote that it seemed that the Texans front office and coaching staff were divided on who they wanted. While the Texans front office has seemed to lack direction the past couple of seasons, I disagree with Fitzgerald on this one.
What I see is a team that had a quarterback they loved and a pass rusher they also loved. Or to put it another way: If quarterbacks move the needle the most for a team, pass rushers move the needle the most for a defense, and if you have a chance to draft players you love at both positions, you should do so.
I understand why we talk about draft value charts and positional value, but ask yourself this: What is the probability that the draft capital the Texans sends goes higher if they take Anderson No. 2, then trade up for Stroud? It's possible more teams would have been interested in moving up for Stroud than Anthony Richardson and the Texans might not get Stroud.
But even after the Texans took Stroud, there were likely teams who wanted to move to No. 3 to get Richardson before the Colts took him. Therefore, it's not surprising the price to pay for the third overall pick was likely to remain high, but perhaps not as high if Stroud was still on the board.
It's true the Texans need Anderson to become a dominant pass rusher. However, if he does turn out to be like Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa -- and Stroud turns into a QB the Texans can build around -- then the Texans are set well for the future. They'll have their long-term players at the two most important positions in the NFL and could become a more attractive team for free agents.
As for the Texans' upcoming season, while I don't expect them to reach the playoffs right away, I could see the Texans push for an 8-9 overall record. As for the division, the Texans are likely in the same position as the Colts (a rebuilding team with a new coach) and the Titans (same coach but starting a rebuild). If they do approach 8-9, plus Stroud and Anderson show their potential to transform their respective units, the pain of giving up that 2024 first-round pick will be lessened.
And while the AFC does look pretty stacked — again — we saw last year that certain teams we thought were going to make a playoff push didn't come close to expectations. Who knows if Aaron Rodgers will keep playing at a high level or if DeShaun Watson will get back to prominence? Or if teams like the Chargers or Dolphins take a step back? Or if maybe this is Bill Belichick's last stand or the Steelers don't get back on track?
If anything was learned from 2022, it's this: Take nothing during the offseason for granted, whether it's putting a team immediately into the playoffs or immediately into a top-five pick next year. Most of all, know that while analytics and value charts may be useful, they aren't the be-all, end-all measure any more than conventional wisdom that still prevails on some NFL teams.
Other Draft Day Thoughts
* While I can understand the Texans' reasoning to go get a pass rusher they liked, I don't understand the Lions' reasoning for taking a running back 12th overall. As I've previously discussed, you can find productive running backs on day two of the draft, so it pays to wait.
You might be able to persuade me about taking Bijan Robinson in the first if you really think he's the next Adrian Peterson and you didn't like the QB prospects available at that point. But does that mean, once Robinson is gone, you have to get the next running back on the board?
Yes, the Lions traded down from No. 6 overall but still took a running back not named Robinson much sooner than I would have. They also took an off-ball linebacker at No. 18 overall, which I'm not as down on as some people, but may raise more questions after their running back pick at No. 12.
I will give the Lions credit, though, for taking Hendon Hooker in the third round. While Jared Goff has been solid for them, taking Hooker gives them an option to consider at some point in case Goff regresses.
* Speaking of Robinson, the Falcons have shown they are not necessarily interested in what analytics and positional value charts have to say. They had no qualms with taking tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021 in what was considered a deep QB draft class, then they took Robinson this year in the top 10.
I do believe that teams should only draft a QB if teams say "that's our guy" but this is the second time in the past three years that the Falcons took a position in the top 10 of the draft, in which you can often find quality players on day two.
Perhaps it works out and the Falcons make me reconsider, but while I can understand them passing on QBs to some degree, I remain skeptical about how Pitts and Robinson move the needle for them in the long term.
* Meanwhile, the Cardinals did well for themselves in their draft board moves. I can't blame them for taking the deal with the Texans to move down, then they found a way to move back up the board to get offensive tackle Paris Johnson.
* The Jaguars also did a good job in working the draft board, moving down twice in the first to pick up additional picks, then still get an offensive tackle who could start for them. I'm not a big fan of what Trent Baalke did in his final years with the 49ers, but who knows — he might have learned a few things and will do better over time with the Jaguars.
* I suspect that Will Levis' fall down the draft board is not just because of his toe injury. There were questions raised about his overall play and how much development he would need in the NFL. But kudos to the Titans for moving up in the second round to get him, where he'll get some time to develop behind Ryan Tannehill.