The NFL Draft: Does More Picks Mean More Success?
Let's look at whether the evidence shows that the more draft picks you have, the more likely you are to get a good return.
There's a theory that it's better to have more picks in an NFL draft than to not have enough. The theory goes like this: Draft picks are like lottery tickets, in which you aren't guaranteed a winner, so get more tickets to increase your chances.
A couple of months ago, somebody inquired why I would trade down in a mock draft for the Denver Broncos and that it would be better to stay put and take the best player available. This person pointed to the Broncos 2022 draft class as a reason to consider that.
I will say that just grabbing one draft class to prove a point isn't a good take, because it's citing one example and a recent one at that, in which the players have just one year of experience and the jury is still out as to how good they'll be.
However, it did get me wondering if it made sense to teams did a better job of drafting if they had more draft capital or less. So I examined each team to see how much validity there was to that theory.
I examined each team's draft record from 2010 to 2019. I scored their drafts based on the Pro Football Reference's method of rating players, but used the Drafted Approximate Value, which only looks at what the player contributed while with the team that drafted him.
The DAV gives a better idea about what the team got out of the player it picked, rather than using the full AV when considering whether a particular position is worth taking in a particular round. DAV tells us what a team got out of its draft, rather than what the player did over an entire career.
I took the DAV for each team's drafted players, added them up, then divided each year's tally by the number of picks the team had in that draft. That gives us an average per pick for the draft class and gives a rough idea about whether or not more picks gave the team more value overall and per pick.
Let's look at each team, listed by total DAV score and average score per pick for each year from 2010 to 2019.
Arizona Cardinals
2011: Eight picks, 129 - 16.13
2012: Seven picks, 63 - 9
2013: Nine picks, 94 - 10.44
2014: Seven picks, 63 - 9
2015: Seven picks, 125 - 17.86
2016: Six picks, 17 - 2.83
2017: Seven picks, 68 - 9.71
2018: Six picks, 56 - 9.3
2019: 11 picks, 106 - 9.63
The Cardinals had a couple of drafts (2011 and 2015) from which they got a good return. 2011 was headlined by Patrick Peterson and Sam Acho, while 2015 had DJ Humphries, Markus Golden and David Johnson. They had a terrible 2016 draft with just six picks, but their 2019 draft had 11 picks and hasn't delivered that much in return, aside from Kyler Murray.
Atlanta Falcons
2011: Six picks, 140 - 23.3
2012: Six picks, 34 - 5.67
2013: Eight picks, 71 - 8.875
2014: Nine picks, 145 - 16.11
2015: Seven picks, 118 - 16.86
2016: Six picks, 113 - 18.83
2017: Six picks, 40 - 6.67
2018: Six picks, 82 - 13.67
2019: Seven picks, 65 - 9.29
The Falcons have drafted well in multiple years but there are a handful in which they didn't get much in return. They traded away multiple picks to get Julio Jones in 2011, a move that paid off, but their 2012 draft class (in which they had no first-round pick) netted little in return. A similar pattern emerged in 2016 and 2017, in which they had six picks each year, got a good return in the first year but little in the second.
Baltimore Ravens
2011: Eight picks, 93 - 11.625
2012: Eight picks, 71 - 8.875
2013: 10 picks, 114 - 11.4
2014: Nine picks, 106 - 11.78
2015: Nine picks, 50 - 5.56
2016: 11 picks, 113 - 10.27
2017: Seven picks, 105 - 15
2018: 12 picks, 191 - 15.91
2019: Eight picks, 58 - 7.25
The Ravens had their best success with a 12-pick draft in 2018, which netted them Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown and Mark Andrews. But it's worth nothing they got a good return a year earlier with just seven picks in 2017, with Marquise Brown and Ben Powers delivering. Of course, some of those players are now gone, but they did perform well during their time with the team. But while the Ravens have typically been a team that accumulates picks, the scores show that hasn't always paid off.
Buffalo Bills
2011: Nine picks, 132 - 14.67
2012: Nine picks, 76 - 8.44
2013: Eight picks, 51 - 6.375
2014: Seven picks, 70 - 10
2015: Six picks, 37 - 6.17
2016: Seven picks, 25 - 3.57
2017: Six picks, 152 - 25.33
2018: Eight picks, 148 - 18.6
2019: Eight picks, 95 - 11.875
The Bills are a perfect example that, sometimes, the way to get better at drafting is to bring in a new regime. They did fine in 2011 but got less in return in the following years, until Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott took over the franchise. It's worth noting that the Bills did accumulate picks going into the 2018 draft, then made a move up the board to draft Josh Allen. That would suggest it's a good idea to accumulate picks before a draft to allow you to make a move up the board to get a player, particularly a quarterback.
Carolina Panthers
2011: Eight picks, 110 - 13.75
2012: Seven picks, 146 - 20.86
2013: Five picks, 75 - 15
2014: Six picks, 92 - 15.33
2015: Five picks, 91 - 18.2
2016: Five picks, 36 - 7.2
2017: Seven picks, 101 - 14.43
2018: Eight picks, 89 - 11.125
2019: Seven picks, 42 - 6
The Panthers did quite well for themselves in the years 2011 to 2015, even the years in which they had just five or six picks. However, things didn't go well in 2016 and that was the point when Cam Newton got injured and his play declined. The Panthers did do better with their 2017 draft class, but with no QB, they struggled. When Newton was healthy, though, the Panthers were a top team. They may be an example of a team who can afford to go with fewer draft picks if they have built a good roster overall.
Chicago Bears
2011: Five picks, 40 - 8
2012: Six picks, 49 - 8.17
2013: Six picks, 71 - 11.83
2014: Eight picks, 112 - 14
2015: Six picks, 66 - 11
2016: Nine picks, 121 - 13.44
2017: Five picks, 98 - 19.6
2018: Seven picks, 97 - 13.86
2019: Five picks, 32 - 6.4
The Bears made just 11 picks in 2011 and 2012 and got little in return. However, they did better in the following years, though some might quibble with 2017, given that PFR tends to give a lot of weight to even average QBs like Mitchell Trubisky. However, then came the trade for Khalil Mack, fewer picks in 2019 as a result and the Bears got a poor return. If you don't consider Trubisky a pick that got enough in return, the Bears would be an example of why it's better to have more picks than fewer.
Cincinnati Bengals
2011: Eight picks, 199 - 24.875
2012: 10 picks, 229 - 22.9
2013: 10 picks, 95 - 9.5
2014: Eight picks, 74 - 9.25
2015: Nine picks, 49 - 5.44
2016: Seven picks, 100 - 14.29
2017: 11 picks, 80 - 7.27
2018: 11 picks, 86 - 7.81
2019: 10 picks, 68 - 6.8
Here is another team that likes to accumulate draft capital. The Bengals got results from strong 2011 and 2012 draft classes, but then stagnated. They fared better in 2016, but stagnated again. Zac Taylor took over as head coach in 2019, which signaled a new direction for the franchise. Of course, the Bengals later added Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, among others, so their scores are likely to be high after 2019. But the Bengals are an example that your drafting success may have less to do with number of picks and more to do with the coaching staff and/or front office.
Cleveland Browns
2011: Eight picks, 91 - 11.375
2012: 11 picks, 74 - 6.73
2013: Five picks, 16 - 3.2
2014: Six picks, 101 - 16.83
2015: 12 picks, 55 - 4.58
2016: 14 picks, 98 - 7
2017: 10 picks, 121 - 12.1
2018: Nine picks, 131 - 14.56
2019: Seven picks, 43 - 6.14
If anyone was going to argue against acquiring more draft capital to have better success in a draft, the Browns are a prime example. They had six picks in 2014 and got a good return (Joel Bitonio and Christian Kirksey drove the team's score up) but then had a lot of picks the next two years and got nothing to show for it. With that said, the Browns were pretty bad at drafting in most of the years I examined. Again, this is a team in which the argument about having a good regime in place to ensure quality drafts is strengthened.
Dallas Cowboys
2011: Eight picks, 146 - 18.25
2012: Seven picks, 61 - 8.71
2013: Seven picks, 127 - 18.14
2014: Nine picks, 174 - 19.33
2015: Eight picks, 57 - 7.125
2016: Nine picks, 224 - 24.89
2017: Nine picks, 65 - 7.22
2018: Nine picks, 117 - 13
2019: Eight picks, 56 - 7
The Cowboys have been pretty consistent in terms of the number of picks they've had, staying between seven and nine. They had their share of good and bad drafts and, when their drafts didn't net much in return, there was just one in which they didn't have a first-round pick, that being 2019. The Cowboys would strengthen the argument that scouting players well is the key to draft success.
Denver Broncos
2011: Nine picks, 178 - 19.78
2012: Seven picks, 105 - 15
2013: Seven picks, 34 - 4.85
2014: Six picks, 58 - 9.67
2015: Nine picks, 52 - 5.78
2016: Eight picks, 106 - 13.25
2017: Eight picks, 42 - 5.25
2018: 10 picks, 95 - 9.5
2019: Six picks, 66 - 11
The Broncos' first two drafts in this sample were one reason why they won Super Bowl 50. However, they then went through a dry spell, save for 2016, which was a good draft class overall even if first-round pick Paxton Lynch flopped. The other issue is that the Broncos had four different head coaches in this span and said coaches likely looked at different things when scouting players. As for the argument about more picks equals more success, the Broncos weren't consistent in that regard.
Detroit Lions
2011: Five picks, 30 - 6
2012: Eight picks, 68 - 8.5
2013: Nine picks, 154 - 17.11
2014: Eight picks, 68 - 8.5
2015: Seven picks, 39 - 5.57
2016: 10 picks, 112 - 11.2
2017: Nine picks, 70 - 7.78
2018: Six picks, 72 - 12
2019: Nine picks, 52 - 5.78
Here's another team that had more bad draft years than good. Two of the years in which the Lions got at least a solid return came when they had at least nine picks, but two other years in which they had at least nine didn't net much. Again, this is a team that one would use to show it's the regime, not the total number of picks, that makes the difference in drafting.
Green Bay Packers
2011: 10 picks, 78 - 7.8
2012: Eight picks, 70 - 8.75
2013: 11 picks, 161 - 14.63
2014: Nine picks, 152 - 16.89
2015: Eight picks, 53 - 6.625
2016: Seven picks, 131 - 18.71
2017: 10 picks, 95 - 9.5
2018: 11 picks, 75 - 6.81
2019: Eight picks, 80 - 10
In most years, the Packers have preferred to accumulate draft capital. The results have been mixed, with their best class coming in 2016 when they had seven picks, the lowest number in this sample. That draft class included Kenny Clark, Blake Martinez and Dean Lowry, all who played well in their time with the Packers. Overall, though, there's nothing here that clearly shows that number of picks affects draft success.
Houston Texans
2011: Eight picks, 171 - 21.375
2012: Eight picks, 110 - 13.75
2013: Nine picks, 73 - 8.11
2014: 10 picks, 101 - 10.1
2015: Seven picks, 62 - 8.86
2016: Six picks, 76 - 12.67
2017: Seven picks, 104 - 14.86
2018: Eight picks, 46 - 5.75
2019: Seven picks, 52 - 7.43
The Texans had two quality drafts in the first two years of this sample, got less in return the next three years, then fared better the next two. It's the last two years that really hurt the franchise. Once again, the evidence points to having a good regime in place to ensure draft success, rather than simply having more draft capital.
Indianapolis Colts
2011: Five picks, 66 - 13.2
2012: 10 picks, 187 - 18.7
2013: Seven picks, 32 - 4.57
2014: Five picks, 42 - 8.4
2015: Eight picks, 51 - 6.375
2016: Eight picks, 96 - 12
2017: Eight picks, 92 - 11.5
2018: 11 picks, 205 - 18.63
2019: 10 picks, 65 - 6.5
After a strong 2012 draft, the Colts went downhill. It's clear they wasted the prime years of Andrew Luck. Not until 2016 did they get back on track. As for number of picks, the Colts have had success with two drafts in which they had at least 10 picks, but not much with the third. We have another example in which you don't have strong evidence bolstering the argument for having more picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2011: Five picks, 35 - 7
2012: Six picks, 34 - 5.67
2013: Eight picks, 79 - 9.875
2014: Nine picks, 173 - 19.22
2015: Eight picks, 65 - 8.125
2016: Seven picks, 99 - 14.14
2017: Seven picks, 81 - 11.57
2018: Seven picks, 57 - 8.14
2019: Seven picks, 71 - 10.14
We now come to a team that seldom made more than seven picks in a draft in this nine-year period. The 2014 draft class looks better than it might be, given that PFR weighed average-QB-at-best Blake Bortles favorably. The Jaguars are another team that has gone through multiple regime changes, so that may have more to do with its success in the draft, or lack thereof, than the amount of capital.
Kansas City Chiefs
2011: Nine picks, 102 - 11.33
2012: Eight picks, 75 - 9.375
2013: Eight picks, 151 - 18.875
2014: Six picks, 82 - 13.67
2015: Nine picks, 101 - 11.22
2016: Nine picks, 150 - 16.67
2017: Six picks, 125 - 20.83
2018: Six picks, 39 - 6.5
2019: Six picks, 63 - 10.5
You can see that the Chiefs have done quite well for themselves in drafts since Andy Reid took over as head coach, save for 2018, which didn't net much in return. Of course, the Chiefs gave up their first-round pick in 2018 in the move up the board in the 2017 draft to select Patrick Mahomes. One might argue the Chiefs probably should have traded down in 2018 to acquire more picks because they didn't have their first-round pick that year.
Las Vegas Raiders
2011: Eight picks, 45 - 5.625
2012: Six picks, 20 - 3.33
2013: 10 picks, 64 - 6.4
2014: Eight picks, 197 - 24.625
2015: 10 picks, 51 - 5.1
2016: Seven picks, 46 - 6.57
2017: Nine picks, 27 - 3
2018: Nine picks, 76 - 8.44
2019: Nine picks, 132 - 14.67
It's not hard to figure out that the Raiders' lack of success came because of a mostly poor drafting record. The 2014 draft class was bolstered by Derek Carr and Khalil Mack (the latter who was traded amid a regime change), while the 2019 draft class is bolstered by Hunter Renfrow, Maxx Crosby and Josh Jacobs. Otherwise, the Raiders were bad at drafting regardless of how many picks they had.
Los Angeles Chargers
2011: Eight picks, 84 - 10.5
2012: Seven picks, 97 - 13.86
2013: Six picks, 119 - 19.83
2014: Six picks, 29 - 4.83
2015: Five picks, 93 - 18.6
2016: Eight picks, 87 - 10.875
2017: Seven picks, 130 - 18.57
2018: Seven picks, 88 - 12.57
2019: Seven picks, 59 - 8.43
It was interesting to see how well the Chargers have drafted, which would explain why Tom Telesco has kept his job for so long despite not having much in terms of playoff success. Their 2015 draft class had good returns despite having just five picks, though it's worth noting that it's bolstered by Melvin Gordon and Denzel Perryman, with the latter player the only one who stayed beyond his rookie deal.
Los Angeles Rams
2011: Eight picks, 65 - 8.125
2012: 10 picks, 149 - 14.9
2013: Seven picks, 94 - 13.43
2014: 11 picks, 173 - 15.73
2015: Nine picks, 128 - 14.22
2016: Six picks, 79 - 13.17
2017: Eight picks, 112 - 14
2018: 11 picks, 63 - 5.72
2019: Eight picks, 88 -11
Of course, the Rams haven't had a first-round pick since 2016, but in recent years, they followed the template of trying to get more picks in the later rounds. They did have success with the 2017 draft with eight picks, but not so much in 2018 when they made 11 picks. Perhaps you could argue here that you want to have a good number of picks but not too many.
Miami Dolphins
2011: Six picks, 73 - 12.17
2012: Nine picks, 108 - 12
2013: Nine picks, 45 - 5
2014: Eight picks, 71 - 8.875
2015: Seven picks, 82 - 11.71
2016: Eight picks, 98 - 12.25
2017: Seven picks, 38 - 5.43
2018: Eight picks, 80 - 10
2019: Six picks, 71 - 11.83
The Dolphins have had some solid returns in their drafts but nothing that turned the franchise around. There's not much that I can really add to that, though in 2020 and 2021, they tried to accumulate picks to rebuild the team, then switched tactics in 2022 and traded away players once they believed pieces were in place. It will be interesting to see how the next few years of draft classes ultimately score.
Minnesota Vikings
2011: 10 picks, 67 - 6.7
2012: 10 picks, 155 - 15.5
2013: Nine picks, 87 - 9.67
2014: 10 picks, 127 - 12.7
2015: 10 picks, 197 - 19.7
2016: Eight picks, 30 - 3.75
2017: 11 picks, 109 - 9.91
2018: Eight picks, 55 - 6.875
2019: 11 picks, 69 - 6.27
The Vikings are another team that tried to accumulate more picks, though you can see it didn't always lead to results. In both years in which the Vikings had 11 picks, the return wasn't good. However, when they had 10 picks, they did a better job most years. Still, the Vikings don’t represent a team that had more draft success by having more draft picks.
New England Patriots
2011: Nine picks, 131 - 14.56
2012: Seven picks, 115 - 16.43
2013: Seven picks, 81 - 11.57
2014: Nine picks, 68 - 7.56
2015: 11 picks, 115 - 10.45
2016: Nine picks, 84 - 9.33
2017: Four picks, 35 - 8.75
2018: Nine picks, 66 - 7.33
2019: 10 picks, 55 - 5.5
Bill Belichick is somebody who likes to accumulate picks most years, but as you can see, it hasn't always paid dividends. It's worth noting that 2017 was the only year in which the Patriots had fewer than seven picks, and in that case, they didn't get much in return. However, the Patriots fared worse in the next two years despite having 19 total picks. Therefore, this is less a question about how many picks they have and more about how well they are doing in scouting talent.
New Orleans Saints
2011: Six picks, 153 - 25.5
2012: Five picks, 36 - 7.2
2013: Five picks, 96 - 19.2
2014: Six picks, 22 - 3.67
2015: Nine picks, 100 - 11.1
2016: Five picks, 120 - 24
2017: Seven picks, 208 - 29.71
2018: Seven picks, 37 - 5.29
2019: Five picks, 44 - 8.8
The Saints are often aggressive in moving up the draft board to select players, hence why they usually make fewer than seven picks in the draft. The strategy worked in 2011 and 2013, but in other years, it wasn't enough. The 2016 and 2017 draft classes were what got them back on track, but in the following two years, things went downhill again. Of course, the Saints have other issues with team building beyond their drafts, but as far as total picks go, there isn't anything here that suggests either way whether more or fewer is better.
New York Giants
2011: Eight picks, 40 - 5
2012: Seven picks, 42 - 6
2013: Seven picks, 44 - 6.29
2014: Seven picks, 89 - 12.71
2015: Six picks, 59 - 9.83
2016: Six picks, 58 - 9.67
2017: Six picks, 58 - 9.67
2018: Six picks, 86 - 14.33
2019: 10 picks, 114 - 11.4
The Giants were bad at drafting the first three years of this sample. They got back on track in 2014 but then got worse again, before they got some decent returns in 2018 and 2019. Of course, some of that goes back to Saquon Barkley, their 2018 first-round pick, staying healthy in 2022 and Daniel Jones, their first pick in 2019, playing better (though he was still average at best). As far as number of picks goes, the Giants had more than seven picks in just two years of this sample, but the evidence suggests draft success or lack thereof has more to do with scouting than with number of picks.
New York Jets
2011: Six picks, 113 - 18.83
2012: Eight picks, 58 - 7.25
2013: Seven picks, 85 - 12.14
2014: 12 picks, 36 - 3
2015: Six picks, 43 - 7.17
2016: Seven picks, 71 - 7.89
2017: Nine picks, 59 - 6.56
2018: Six picks, 44 - 7.33
2019: Six picks, 46 - 7.67
The Jets had one of the worst draft classes in this sample, that being 2014 in which they made 12 picks and got almost nothing in return. If you were going to argue about more picks equaling more success, you don't want to cite the Jets, that's for sure. The 2011 draft class is bolstered by Muhammad Wilkerson, Bilal Powell and Jeremy Kerley, but most of the other drafts were bad, regardless of how many picks the Jets had. With the Jets, it's clear that this has more do with the regime than it has to do with number of draft picks.
Philadelphia Eagles
2011: 11 picks, 133 - 12.09
2012: Nine picks, 186 - 20.67
2013: Eight picks, 139 - 17.38
2014: Seven picks, 43 - 6.14
2015: Six picks, 39 - 6.5
2016: Eight picks, 109 - 13.625
2017: Eight picks, 56 - 7
2018: Five picks, 84 - 16.8
2019: Five picks, 38 - 7.6
The Eagles have been one of the best teams when it comes to drafting and is one example of a team that appeared to do better with more picks. On the other hand, they had just five picks in 2018 after some trades, but got a good return overall, even if not every player has been retained. But that's sandwiched between two drafts in which they combined for 13 picks and didn't get much in return. Again, though, the argument that's favored here may be more about the regime than about the number of picks the team made.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2011: Six picks, 53 - 8.83
2012: Nine picks, 106 - 11.78
2013: Nine picks, 129 - 14.33
2014: Nine picks, 88 - 9.78
2015: Eight picks, 48 - 6
2016: Seven picks, 62 - 8.86
2017: Eight picks, 132 - 16.5
2018: Seven picks, 75 - 10.71
2019: Nine picks, 71 - 7.89
In most of these years, the Steelers made nine picks, though the returns were mixed. The 2013 class, headlined by Le'Veon Bell and Nick Williams had the best return, while the 2019 class was the second worst ever for the team, with only the 2015 class (eight picks) generating less. There is some evidence that suggests having nine picks is a good number, but it’s not a clear-cut case.
San Francisco 49ers
2011: 10 picks, 131 - 13.1
2012: Seven picks, 5 - 0.71
2013: 11 picks, 62 - 5.63
2014: 12 picks, 95 - 7.92
2015: 10 picks, 88 - 8.8
2016: 11 picks, 54 - 4.91
2017: 10 picks, 118 - 11.8
2018: Nine picks, 126 - 14
2019: Eight picks, 111 - 13.875
From 2012 to 2016, the Niners were awful at drafting, regardless of how many picks they stockpiled. The 2012 draft class number is mind bogglingly bad — that one is easily the worst draft class from 2011 to 2019 for any team. The Niners got back on track under John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan and that draft track record is likely a reason why they made that move up the draft board in 2020 to select Trey Lance. But getting back to those bad years, it doesn't help the argument that having more picks equals more success, though it does raise the question about why Trent Baalke got another general manager job in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks
2011: Nine picks, 191 - 21.22
2012: 10 picks, 311 - 31.1
2013: 11 picks, 32 - 2.91
2014: Nine picks, 61 - 6.78
2015: Eight picks, 88 - 11
2016: 10 picks, 95 - 9.5
2017: 11 picks, 99 - 9
2018: Nine picks, 77 - 8.56
2019: 11 picks, 77 - 7
We just looked at the worst draft class from 2011 to 2019, but now we have the best, that being the Seahawks' 2012 draft haul. Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner were two of the reasons why the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl twice and, while Bruce Irvin and J.R. Sweezy weren't great, they contributed plenty to the team. The Seahawks haven't reached those heights since, though they got solid value in 2015. It will be interesting to look at future classes, both because they made just three picks in 2021 and because the 2022 draft class showed promise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011: Eight picks, 47 - 5.875
2012: Seven picks, 137 - 19.57
2013: Six picks, 74 - 12.33
2014: Six picks, 99 - 16.5
2015: Seven picks, 172 - 24.57
2016: Seven picks, 39 - 5.57
2017: Six picks, 65 - 10.83
2018: Eight picks, 116 - 14.5
2019: Eight picks, 104 - 13
The Buccaneers are another team that hasn't made a large number of selections from year to year. The 2015 number is inflated by how PFR measured Jameis Winston, who is best described as an average-to-good quarterback. Again, we don't have clear evidence that having fewer picks is a reason for less success in a draft, given that the Bucs have had plenty of years in which they got at least a solid return.
Tennessee Titans
2011: Nine picks, 136 - 15.11
2012: Seven picks, 59 - 8.43
2013: Eight picks, 58 - 7.25
2014: Six picks, 118 - 19.67
2015: Nine picks, 56 - 6.22
2016: 10 picks, 168 - 16.8
2017: Nine picks, 84 - 9.33
2018: Four picks, 57 - 14.25
2019: Six picks, 112 - 18.67
The Titans are notable because they made just four picks in 2018 but got a solid return out of Harold Landry (who is still with the team) and Rashaan Evans. With that said, I've looked at enough teams to know that you shouldn't rely on getting a good return out of a small number of picks. On the other hand, that doesn't mean that more capital equals more success, as you can see with the Titans' 2013 and 2017 draft classes.
Washington Commanders
2011: 12 picks, 147 - 12.25
2012: Nine picks, 124 - 13.78
2013: Seven picks, 51 - 7.29
2014: Eight picks, 93 - 11.625
2015: 10 picks, 111 - 11.1
2016: Seven picks, 54 - 7.72
2017: 10 picks, 104 - 10.4
2018: Eight picks, 68 - 8.5
2019: 10 picks, 97 - 9.7
The Commanders have made more picks than I realized — they actually made more than seven selections in 2012 when they made their trade up the board for Robert Griffin III. In 2016 through 2019, Washington's draft success wasn't as good, which played a part in the team's decline. The 2019 example shows that having more picks doesn't equal more success, even with good returns coming from other years.
Conclusion
I found some, but not strong, evidence that having more draft picks equals more draft success. But while I found a few instances in which teams did well with having a smaller number of picks, there were just as many instances in which teams did poorly with a smaller number.
In other words, draft success isn't really affected by the total number of picks a team has. Drafting well is more about scouting and finding the right players, meaning you need a good general manager and head coach in place to identify talent.
However, there may be something said for strategizing when to accumulate draft capital and when to trade picks away. Consider, for example, what happens when a team finds a quarterback it can build around.
If this team drafts a quarterback and he turns out to be a keeper, a team should think about trading away late-round picks to acquire veteran players and take advantage of several years of cheap QB play. Once it comes time to extend the QB, the team can change course, move on from those acquired veterans, then accumulate additional picks so it has more chances to find players on cheap contracts to add around the QB.
Another theory: Because it's harder to hit in the later rounds of a draft, a team that doesn't have a first- or second-round pick may want to think about trading down in later rounds to get more picks. While that doesn't ensure success, it may be better to try the “more picks” strategy when you don’t have those earlier picks. But that thinking wouldn't apply as much if the team still has a first and second at its disposal.
Thus, when it comes to the Broncos in the example I opened with, I would be more inclined to trade down, particularly because they have a QB with an expensive contract. In 2024, when the Broncos will have a first-round pick, I would be less inclined to trade down and, instead, will want the scouting department to identify the player who will help the team the most.
In summary, it's best not to think about drafts simply in terms of the number of picks. Instead, we should think about how teams have built their roster and how to do a better job of scouting talent to maximize draft success.
But there is one other question to ask: What if a team trades up in a draft to acquire a player? I'll look at the success rate for that in my next article.