The NFL Draft: How Have Trades Up the Board Worked Out?
Let's examine recent moves up the draft board to see what the evidence says about justifying a trade up.
The 2023 NFL Draft is just days away. Along with the intrigue about which players will be selected in the first round comes the interest sparked when a team trades up the draft board to select a player.
We've already seen one move up the board happen, in which the Panthers sent multiple picks and wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears to acquire the No. 1 overall pick. Interest has now turned to the Cardinals, who have the No. 3 overall pick and might trade out of that spot with a team who wants to draft a quarterback.
There's a theory that trading up the draft board only makes sense for a quarterback. However, I wondered if that was really the case. Could it be that it makes sense to trade up for other positions? Does it make sense to do it one round and not another?
I examined every trade up the board from 2011 to 2019 to see what success NFL teams had with the players they acquired. I defined a trade up the board as swapping either current-year or future-year picks with the intent of acquiring a particular player. I didn't include trades that were more about moving a player.
For example, while I didn't look at 2023 trades, the swap between the Bears and Panthers would count as a "trade up the board" because the Panthers were mainly interested in the No. 1 overall pick, even when they included a player in the trade. However, I would not include the recent swap of Allen Robinson from the Rams to the Steelers because, even though the Rams moved up in the seventh round, their intent was to move Robinson.
Let's look at the trades up the board by year and round. With each player, I listed their position, the Pro Football Reference Approximate Value and the PFR Drafted Approximate Value (the former scores a player for his overall career, the latter scores his contributions to the team who drafted him):
2011
First round
Falcons trade up for Julio Jones, WR 100/97
Jaguars trade up for Blaine Gabbert QB 16/7
Browns traded up for Phil Taylor, ID 19/19
Saints trade up for Mark Ingram, RB 66/51
Second round
Colts traded up for Ben Ijalana, OT 6/0
Bears trade up for Stephen Paea, ID 19/15
Lions traded up for Mikel Leshoure, RB 5/5
Texans trade up for Brandon Harris, CB 3/2
Dolphins trade up for Daniel Thomas, RB 11/1
Third round
Jaguars trade up for Will Rackley, IOL 8/8
Ravens trade up for Jah Reid, OT 10/5
Raiders trade up for Joe Barksdale, OT 35/1
Fourth round
Buccaneers trade up for Luke Stocker, TE 5/3
Commanders trade up for Roy Helu, RB 13/13
Broncos trade up for Julius Thomas, TE 21/13
Fifth round
Falcons trade up for Jacquizz Rodgers, RB 24/17
Browns trade up for Jason Pinkston, IOL 10/10
Jets trade up for Jeremy Kerley, WR 23/19
Niners trade up for Daniel Kilgore, IOL 26/17
Sixth round
Dolphins trade up for Charles Clay, TE 29/13
There were 20 trades up the board in the first year that the rookie pay scale took effect. Of those trades, Julio Jones worked out for the Falcons and you might give the Saints credit for Mark Ingram. In the later round, there are a few players who had decent contributions to their teams.
But the earlier rounds had a number of trades up that clearly failed, one of them the first failed QB prospect (Gabbert). If you go with just Jones and Ingram as your trades up that worked out, you have a success rate of just 10 percent.
2012
First round
Commanders trade up for Robert Griffin III, QB 36/31
Browns trade up for Trent Richardson, RB 17/7
Jaguars trade up for Justin Blackmon, WR 9/9
Cowboys trade up for Morris Claiborne, CB 25/13
Eagles trade up for Fletcher Cox, ID 92/92
Patriots trade up for Chandler Jones, EDGE 77/25
Patriots trade up for Donta Hightower, LB 65/65
Vikings trade up for Harrison Smith, S 65/65
Buccaneers trade up for Doug Martin, RB 39/35
Second round
Jets trade up for Stephen Hill, WR 4/4
Bears trade up for Alshon Jeffery, WR 48/33
Packers trade up for Jerel Worthy, ID 4/3
Buccaneers trade up for Lavonte David, LB 83/83
Packers trade up for Casey Hayward, CB 49/7
Third round
Broncos trade up for Ronnie Hillman, RB 17/15
Bills trade up for TJ Graham, WR 7/6
Chargers trade up for Brandon Taylor, S 1/1
Ravens trade up for Bernard Pierce, RB 10/10
Colts trade up for TY Hilton, WR 72/71
Fourth round
Dolphins trade up for Lamar Miller, RB 42/22
Panthers trade up for Frank Alexander, EDGE 6/6
Steelers trade up for Alameda Ta’amu, ID 3/0
Niners trade up for Joe Looney, OG 21/3
Fifth round
Lions trade up for Tahir Whitehead, EDGE 41/26
Lions trade up for Chris Greenwood, CB 0/0
Packers trade up for Terrell Manning, EDGE 0/0
There were 26 trades up the board in 2012 but you had more in which you can say the player was worth acquiring. Cox, Jones, Hightower and Smith were all taken in the first round and all have had quality careers. The same holds true for David (a second-rond pick) and Hilton (a third-round pick).
None of those players in question are quarterbacks. The only one involved in a move up the board was Robert Griffin III, which is reportedly a case of the coaching staff not wanting him but ownership insisting upon it. That trade, along with those for Richardson and Blackmon, were among the notable failures.
I scored 10 trades up the board that worked out to some degree for the teams in question, which gives a success rate of 38 percent.
2013
First round
Rams trade up for Tavon Austin, WR 26/22
Niners trade up for Eric Reid, S 33/26
Falcons trade up for Desmond Trufant, CB 37/35
Vikings trade up for Cordarrelle Patterson, WR 40/16
Second round
Titans trade up for Justin Hunter, WR 9/7
Chargers trade up for Manti Te’o, LB 20/14
Niners trade up for Vance McDonald, TE 14/5
Ravens trade up for Arthur Brown, EDGE 3/2
Third round
Niners tried up for Corey Lemonier, EDGE 4/3
Dolphins trade up for Will Davis, CB 0/0
Fourth round
Dolphins trade up for Jelani Jenkins, EDGE 15/14
Eagles trade up for Matt Barkley, QB 5/1
Buccaneers trade up for Akeem Spence, ID 27/14
Giants trade up for Ryan Nassib, QB 0/0
Steelers trade future pick for Shamarko Thomas, S 5/4
Fifth round
Seahawks trade up for Jesse Williams, ID 0/0
Colts trade future pick for Montori Hughes, ID 2/2
Rams trade up for Zac Stacy, RB 11/10
Sixth round
Texans trade up for David Quessenberry, OT 16/0
Buccaneers trade up for Mike James, RB 2/2
The 2013 draft class wasn't a strong overall class and some of the evidence can be seen in the trades up the board. You could argue that Eric Reid and Desmond Trufant worked out, but others are harder to justify.
If we accept those two as trades that worked out, then out of the 20 trades up the board, we have a success rate of just 10 percent.
2014
First round
Bills trade up for Sammy Watkins, WR 43/20
Vikings trade up for Anthony Barr, LB 56/52
Saints trade up for Brandin Cooks WR 66/21
Browns trade up for Johnny Manziel, QB 4/4
Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater, QB 49/22
Second round
Eagles trade up for Jordan Matthews, WR 23/21
Chargers trade up for Jeremiah Attaochu, EDGE 15/9
Broncos trade up for Cody Latimer, WR 6/3
Niners trade up for Carlos Hyde, RB 32/18
Jaguars trade up for Allen Robinson, WR 47/18
Third round
Dolphins trade up for Billy Turner, OT 34/5
Texans trade up for Louis Nix, ID 0/0
Jaguars trade up for Brandon Linder, IOL 31/31
Browns trade up for Terrance West, RB 11/3
Fourth round
Bengals trade up for Russell Bodine, IOL 30/28
Bears trade up for Brock Vereen, S 2/2
Fifth round
Cowboys trade up for Devin Street, WR 1/1
Panthers trade up for Bene Benwikere, CB 10/6
Buccaneers trade up for Kevin Pamphile, OT 16/15
Falcons trade up for Marquis Spruill, LB 0/0
Sixth round
Titans trade up for Zach Mettenberger, QB 1/1
I have five trades up the board in which you could make the case that the player worked out: Barr, Cooks, Robinson, Linder and Bodine. You might argue that some of these trades weren't that good, though.
But if we stick with those five, out of the 21 trades up the board, the success rate is 24 percent. Obviously, that goes lower if you exclude a player or two. For example, I can see the argument for excluding Cooks, who the Saints moved after just three seasons and has been traded multiple times in his career. However, there’s arguably more evidence that Cooks worked out than Watkins and clearly more that favors Cooks over Manziel.
I should add that certain trades I would say worked out happened in the later rounds, which may support the argument that it's probably better, in some cases, to wait until those rounds to trade up for particular positions.
2015
First round
Chargers trade up for Melvin Gordon, RB 50/38
Broncos trade up for Shane Ray, EDGE 12/12
Second round
Giants trade up for Landon Collins, S 42/32
Panthers trade up for Devin Funchess, WR 20/20
Texans trade up for Benardrick McKinney, LB 44/42
Eagles trade up for Eric Rowe, CB 21/2
Ravens trade up for Maxx Williams, TE 8/4
Buccaneers trade up for Ali Marpet, IOL 43/43
Third round
Seahawks trade up for Tyler Lockett, WR 59/59
Texans trade up for Jaelen Strong, WR 2/2
Chiefs trade up for Chris Conley, WR 21/11
Lions trade up for Alex Carter, CB 0/0
Browns trade up for Xavier Cooper, ID 4/3
Fourth round
Panthers trade up for Daryl Williams, OT 39/22
Jets trade up for Bryce Petty, QB 4/4
Lions trade future pick for Gabe Wright, ID 1/1
Cardinals trade up for Rodney Gunter, DT/DE 18/18
Buccaneers trade up for Kwon Alexander, LB 40/22
Fifth round
Falcons trade up for Grady Jarrett, ID 49/49
Packers trade up for Brett Hundley, QB 5/5
Colts trade up for David Parry, DT 13/13
Saints trade up for Damian Swann, CB 1/1
There were 22 trades up the board in 2015 and you have some in which you might argue whether or not the trade really worked out or not.
There will be debates about the likes of Melvin Gordon, Landon Collins and Kwon Alexander, for example. Other trades up the board are clear wins, though, such as Tyler Lockett and Grady Jarrett. Of course, there are clear failures such as Shane Ray and Eric Rowe.
I scored eight trades that worked out, giving us a success rate of 36 percent. You might have fewer that you would say were worth the move up.
2016
First round
Rams trade up for Jared Goff, QB 71/48
Eagles trade up for Carson Wentz, QB 59/43
Titans trade up for Jack Conklin, OT 53/30
Bears trade up for Leonard Floyd, EDGE 48/22
Texans trade up for Will Fuller, WR 24/24
Broncos trade up for Paxton Lynch, QB 2/2
Niners trade up for Joshua Garrett, IOL 5/5
Second round
Jaguars trade up for Myles Jack, LB 41/36
Dolphins trade up for Xavien Howard, CB 54/54
Bills trade up for Reggie Ragland, LB 22/0
Packers trade up for Jason Spriggs, OT 9/8
Seahawks trade up for Jarran Reed, LB 39/28
Texans trade up for Nick Martin, IOL 29/27
Buccaneers trade up for Roberto Aguayo, K 0/0
Saints trade up for Vonn Bell, S 32/13
Third round
Panthers trade up for Daryl Worley, CB 19/11
Dolphins trade up for Leonte Carroo, WR 2/2
Fourth round
Raiders trade up for Connor Cook, QB 0/0
Bears trade up for Nick Kwiatkoski, LB 20/14
Saints trade up for David Onyemata, ID 33/33
Fifth round
Seahawks trade up for Quinton Jefferson, ID 22/13
Titans trade up for LeShaun Sims, CB 11/7
Jets trade future pick for Brandon Shell, OT 29/13
Sixth round
Dolphins trade up for Jakeem Grant, WR 14/12
Vikings trade up for David Morgan, TE 1/1
We hit an all-time high for trades up the board to this point of the "rookie pay scale" era with 25 such moves. These include the moves to select Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Goff is debatable and I imagine the majority of people will say that Wentz didn't work out. With that said, Wentz has demonstrated quality play at times, which is more than can be said for Paxton Lynch, a clear failed move up the board.
Goff, Conklin, Jack, Howard and Onyemata were the ones I scored as working out to some degree. If you go with those five, you have a success rate of 20 percent.
This draft is notable for perhaps the most infamous trade up the board, that for kicker Roberto Aguayo. While Lynch failed as a prospect, you could at least justify moving up the board for a QB, but it's much harder to justify moving up the board for a kicker.
2017
First round
Bears trade up for Mitchell Trubisky, QB 36/33
Chiefs trade up for Patrick Mahomes, QB 85/85
Texans trade up for DeShaun Watson, QB 55/52
Falcons trade up for Takkarist McKinley, ID 15/13
Browns trade up for David Njoku, TE 18/18
Niners trade up for Reuben Foster, LB 8/8
Second round
Jaguars trade up for Cam Robinson, OT 31/31
Cardinals trade up for Budda Baker, S 47/47
Bills trade up for Zay Jones, WR 22/8
Vikings trade up for Dalvin Cook, RB 52/52
Bills trade up for Dion Dawkins, OT 45/45
Third round
Saints trade up for Alvin Kamara, RB 65/65
Vikings trade up for Pat Elfein, IOL 27/21
Titans trade up for Taywan Taylor, WR 6/6
Panthers trade up for Daeshon Hill, EDGE 1/0
Patriots trade up for Antonio Garcia, OT 0/0
Chiefs trade up for Kareem Hunt, RB 43/25
Niners trade up for CJ Beathard, QB 8/8
Buccaneers trade up for Kendall Beckwith, LB 5/5
Fourth round
Bears trade up for Eddie Jackson, S 42/42
Niners trade up for Joe Williams, RB 0/0
Rams trade up for Samson Ebukam, EDGE 31/20
Browns trade up for Howard Wilson, CB 0/0
Chiefs trade up for Donnel Pumphrey, RB 0/0
Fifth round
Chiefs trade up for Ukeme Eligwe, EDGE 2/1
Titans trade up for Jayon Brown, LB 26/23
Browns trade up for Roderick Johnson, OT 5/0
Dolphins trade up for Isaac Asiata, IOL 0/0
Broncos trade up for Isaiah McKenzie, WR 14/0
Sixth round
Cowboys trade future pick for Xavier Woods, S 27/16
Commanders trade up for Chase Rouiller, C 24/24
Giants trade up for Adam Bisnowaty, OT 0/0
Bengals trade up for Brandon Wilson, CB 6/6
Cardinals trade up for Rudy Ford, S 8/2
Patriots trade up for Conor McDermott, OT 6/3
We have 35 trades up the board, the highest yet for this sample. Also, we have three trades up the board for quarterbacks, most notably Patrick Mahomes. His impact on the NFL and the Chiefs is no doubt a reason why some advocate for only trading up for a QB.
The trade up for Trubisky, though, didn't work out as expected. Only time will tell if Watson gets back on track this season. But as for other moves up the board, some in the later rounds have worked out pretty well, such as Cook, Baker Dawkins and Kamara.
I scored nine trades that worked out, which yields a success rate of 26 percent. Again, you might argue some didn't meet the criteria. I didn't see Kareem Hunt as a clear miss, for example, but you may view that one differently. Clear misses would include Takkarist McKinley and Reuben Foster.
2018
First round
Jets trade up for Sam Darnold, QB 25/16
Bills trade up for Josh Allen, QB 68/68
Cardinals trade up for Josh Rosen, QB 3/2
Saints trade up for Marcus Davenport, EDGE 18/18
Bills trade up for Tremaine Edmunds, LB 45/45
Packers trade up for Jaire Alexander, CB 30/30
Titans trade up for Rashaan Evans, LB 31/25
Ravens trade up for Lamar Jackson, QB 69/69
Second round
Lions trade up for Kerryon Johnson, RB 11/11
Niners trade up for Dante Pettis, WR 9/5
Chiefs trade up for Breeland Speaks, ID 3/3
Eagles trade up for Dallas Goedert, TE 25/25
Bears trade up for Anthony Miller, WR 12/12
Patriots trade up for Duke Dawson, S 3/0
Colts trade up for Tyquan Lewis, EDGE 10/10
Third round
Raiders trade up for Brandon Parker, OT 14/14
Chiefs trade up for Derrick Nnadi, DT 27/27
Steelers trade up for Mason Rudolph, QB 5/5
Raiders trade up for Arden Key, EDGE 10/6
Packers trade up for Oren Burks, LB 8/7
Buccaneers trade up for Alex Cappa, IOL 31/22
Niners trade up for Tarvarius Moore, S 8/8
Fourth round
Browns trade up for Antonio Callaway, WR 5/5
Lions trade future pick for Da’Shawn Hand, EDGE 7/7
Panthers trade up for Marquis Haynes, EDGE 7/7
Fifth round
Raiders trade up for Maurice Hurst, ID 9/9
Titans trade up for Dane Cruikshank, CB 4/4
Vikings trade up for Tyler Conklin, TE 12/8
Rams trade up for Ogonnia Okoronkwo, EDGE 8/3
Vikings trade up for Daniel Carlson, K 17/-1
Falcons trade up for Russell Gage, WR 20/17
Commanders trade up for Trevon Young, ID 0/0
Chiefs trade up for Kahlil McKenzie, ID 0/0
This was another year in which there was a lot of draft board movement, with 32 trades up the board. Again, we see two moves up the board for QBs that worked out well (Allen and Jackson) but there are two other moves for QBs that failed (Darnold and Rosen).
Again, some might quibble about what trades truly worked out, but I scored seven that did to some degree. That gives us a success rate of about 22 percent. Whether you consider, say, Tremaine Edmunds one that worked out is up to you, but he had a bigger impact than, say, Marcus Davenport.
2019
First round
Steelers trade up for Devin Bush, LB 23/23
Packers trade up for Darnell Savage, S 19/19
Eagles trade up for Andre Dillard, OT 7/7
Commanders trade up for Montez Sweat, EDGE 27/27
Giants trade up for DeAndre Baker, CB 6/5
Falcons trade up for Kaleb McGary, OT 28/28
Second round
Jaguars trade up for Jawaan Taylor, OT 26/26
Panthers trade up for Greg Little, OT 8/3
Bills trade up for Cody Ford, OG 15/13
Broncos trade up for Drew Lock, QB 12/12
Patriots trade up for Joejuan Williams, CB 3/3
Browns trade up for Greedy Williams, CB 8/8
Saints trade up for Erik McCoy, IOL 24/24
Chiefs trade up for Mecole Hardman, WR 22/22
Cardinals trade up for Andy Isabella, WR 4/4
Seahawks trade up for DK Metcalf, WR 37/37
Third round
Rams trade up for Darrell Henderson, RB 13/13
Bears trade up for David Montgomery, RB 28/28
Lions trade up for Will Harris, S 10/10
Seahawks trade up for Cody Barton, LB 10/10
Jets trade up for Chuma Edoga, OT 6/5
Ravens trade up for Miles Boykin, WR 6/6
Bills trade up for Dawson Knox, TE 16/16
Rams trade up for Bobby Evans, IOL 7/7
Fourth round
Bengals trade up for Ryan Finley, QB 2/2
Saints trade up for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S 16/11
Colts trade up for Khari Willis, S 12/12
Vikings trade up for Dru Samia, OG 3/3
Titans trade up for Amani Hooker, S 10/10
Rams trade up for Greg Gaines, ID 13/13
Falcons trade up for John Cominsky, EDGE 7/3
Bengals trade up for Michael Jordan, OG 11/8
Fifth round
Niners trade up for Dre Greenlaw, LB 22/22
Raiders trade up for Hunter Renfrow, WR 20/20
Patriots trade up for Byron Cowart, ID 10/9
Patriots trade up for Jake Bailey, P 7/7
Sixth round
Broncos trade up for Juwann Winfree, WR 1/0
The 2019 draft had the most trades up the board of this sample with 37. I scored seven that have worked out to some degree, which gives a success rate of about 19 percent.
Notably, there were two trades up the draft board for wide receivers that worked out pretty well, those being DK Metcalf and Hunter Renfrow. There's also a trade up the draft board for a punter, but that's a position I don't think justifies a move up.
Darnell Savage, Andre Dillard and DeAndre Baker are among the clear misses here and Devin Bush arguably so. Montez Sweat and Kaleb McGary are two I’d lean towards as hits, though I could see the reasons for not including McGary as a hit.
What It All Means
I think the rationale for only trading up to get a QB is based more on recent years, in which Mahomes, Watson, Allen and Jackson have all played well. I can understand the point, though, because QB is the position that impacts a team more than any other.
However, I would modify that to say that trading up the board in the first round should only happen for a QB. That's because you find plenty of instances of trades up for other positions working out well in the later rounds. Few would argue that recent picks like Xavien Howard, Dion Dawkins. Budda Baker and DK Metcalf haven't worked out.
Something else one should consider is if a team already has its QB, particularly if that QB is on his rookie contract. It may be worth trading up for certain positions if you have your QB and believe a particular player can further elevate your team.
Who wouldn't want, for example, to have not only a quality QB on a cheap contract, but have an edge rusher or offensive tackle on one as well? Thus, if you have such a QB, you have plenty of draft capital and there's an edge rusher or offensive tackle you really like, trade up for him.
And in the later rounds, that may be the time to think more about trading up, particularly if you have a lot of draft capital. I can see the logic about moving up if you have multiple picks in the sixth and seventh rounds and you have a deep roster already.
In other words, I think teams need to look at moving up the draft board as not just about the position in question, but about the amount of picks they have and the state of their roster. If you don't have a good QB, I can see the argument for only trading up for that position. But if you have a quality QB and a good roster in place, you have better justification for a move up the board.