The NFL Draft: Position Priorities
Which NFL positions should be drafted earlier or later? Let's consider what some data suggests
Each year, you hear the debates about which positions teams should prioritize in an NFL draft. Some will point to drafting based on need while others will try to maximize their return on the picks they make, which may lead to "best player available" arguments.
There are draft analysts who will argue that you can afford to wait on particular positions, because look who emerged in later rounds. In other cases, you have analysts who look at the rookie pay scale, the money you commit to players drafted early and suggest that it's better to prioritize positions based on that.
The method I use about when to draft particular positions is to look at the order of importance of each position. The way I have viewed the importance of each position is, in order of importance:
Quarterback: By far, the most important position. If you have a quality quarterback, you are more likely than not to be a regular playoff contender.
Pass rusher: The most important position on the defense. Having a quality pass rusher (usually an edge rusher but sometimes an interior defender) is important to disrupting the passing game.
Offensive tackle: Because the best pass rusher are usually edge rusher, the offensive tackle carries a lot of importance. Left tackle tends to carry greater weight because that player protects the QB's blindside, but the right tackle carries more importance now that more defensive coordinators will line up their top edge rusher against the right tackle on more snaps.
Wide receiver and cornerback: Because the passing game is emphasized, wide receivers are an important part of the offense. The cornerback, then, becomes the best means of counteracting a wide receiver.
Interior offensive line and safety: Some defensive coordinators will put their best pass rushers up against the guards and centers, so those players do carry some importance, though not as much as the tackles. As for safeties, they can be valuable in aiding the cornerbacks and being a field general who can see what develops on offense.
Tight end and off-ball linebacker: Some people put more importance on these positions than they really deserve. While a quality tight end is useful, the tight ends who can actually replace a No. 1 wide receiver are rare. Meanwhile, the off-ball linebackers serve as a counter to tight ends and pass-catching running backs, but those who can cover receivers are rare, too. Thus, one needs to be careful about overrating these positions.
Running back: This position does not carry the importance it once held. The days of the every-down back are fading. However, finding a back who excels as a pass catcher and does a good job with pass protection is a good idea. You just don't want to fixate on them.
Run-defending interior defenders: The nose tackle holds the least importance among defensive players. They are not a priority to pursue in a draft.
Kicker, punter, long snapper: These positions don't transform a team into a playoff contender and, thus, have the lowest priority.
What It Means In A Draft
If we look at the drafts since 2011, there are patterns you will notice in terms of the likelihood of finding a quality player at a particular position. Let's consider each position and note which rounds quality players at each position have been found.
I'll use Pro Football Reference's approximate value metric. While it's not a perfect metric, you will usually find that the players PFR ranks high are either Hall of Fame worthy or at least had a period in which they were a key player on a team's roster.
How would we define a qualty starter? Let's use the cutoff of 50 for a quality starter, but make exceptions for players drafted in 2017 or later who I imagine most people would consider quality starters. I also did not include any players taken in the 2021 and 2022 drafts because those players haven't been in the NFL that long. Finally, I didn't include specialists (kicker, punter, long snapper) because they don't transform a team into a playoff contender.
Here's what this admittedly simple data method shows about each position.
Quarterback: There have been 20 quarterbacks taken between the years 2011 and 2020 who had a PFR approximate value (AV) of at least 50. Of those QBs, 14 were taken in the first round.
In some cases, you might debate whether the QB in question is that good. Among QBs whos scored at least 50, Carson Wentz peaked early while Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have been inconsistent. Others might include somebody like Colin Kaepernick, whose AV was just below 50.
However, if you remove Wentz, Winston and Mariota, then add Kaepernick, you still have 11 out of 18 quarterbacks taken in the first round who became quality starters. Once you get past the second round, you are left with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. And given how things look thus far with the 2021 draft class, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Mac Jones have the best chance at becoming quality starters and all three were first-round picks.
In other words, with a QB, taking one early is your best bet at finding a quality starter.
Pass rusher: Among edge rushers and interior defenders who excel at rushing the passer, there are 35 who would be considered at some point to have been quality starters. Of those 35, 26 were taken in the first round.
Of those 35, five were taken in the third round, but just two were taken on day three: Maxx Crosby and Matt Judon. The evidence is strong that, if you want a quality pass rusher, you need to select one early.
Offensive tackle: There were 18 offensive tackles who either scored 50 or higher in AV or are more recent picks considered quality starters. Of those 18, 10 are former first-round picks.
If you include players who haven't hit 50 in AV, such as Garett Bolles and Andrew Thomas, you are likely to include former first-round picks. Therefore, the evidence is strong for taking an offensive tackle early if you want a quality starter.
There is an argument for taking an offensive tackle on day two, but if you get to day three, you're counting on somebody like David Bakhtiari or Kelvin Beachum coming along -- and in these cases, you really need a good offensive line coach who can get the best ouf of the player.
Wide receiver: I had 27 such players who had an AV of at least 50 or who are more recent picks considered quality starters. There were 11 taken in the first round, but 12 were taken on day two while four were taken on day three.
Here, we have a position that carries plenty of value in today's NFL but it's possible to find a quality starter later in the draft. This might suggest that if you are deciding between a pass rusher or a wide receiver, it's better to go with the pass rusher, because you can probably find a wide receiver later.
But once you get past day two, it may be harder to find a quality starter, unless somebody like Tyreek Hill slides down the board -- and in that case, you're taking a chance on a player with off-field issues. Had Hill not been convicted of domestic violence while in college, he likely would have been drafted earlier.
Cornerback: This one was more difficult to evaluate because some of the players considered to be the best at this position are more recent draft picks. However, I did find 10 players with AV of 50 or higher and six were taken in the first round.
Chances are we'll find some recent draft picks, such as Patrick Surtain II and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, cement their positions as top cornerbacks. However, if those two players do so, note that they are former first-round picks. Thus, we may find the case for taken a cornerback early gets stronger, unless we see more late-round players like Richard Sherman emerge.
Interior offensive line: There are 18 offensive guards and centers who scored at least 50 in AV, with seven of thsoe taken in the first round, while eight were taken on day two. An exception to the "50 in AV" rule is Creed Humphrey, a former second-round pick.
The limited data I have does suggest that taking an interior offensive lineman early is a good idea, but it also suggests it's fine to wait until day two to select one. Along with Humphrey, the likes of Dion Dawkins, Joel Bitonio, Trai Turner, Rodney Hudston, Brandon Brooks and Larry Worford have done well for themselves.
Do note that this sample includes Brandon Scherff, a former first-round pick who entered the NFL as an offensive tackle was moved to guard.
Safety: The sample size here was small with just 10 players who one may consider quality starters. What did become evident is that it's possible to find such a starter on day two.
Harrison Smith and Minkah Fitzpatrick are former first-round picks who have been considered top safeties at some point of their careers. Some might argue for Jamal Adams, another former first-round picks.
But consider the case of others who would be considered a top safety at some point in their careers. Jeremy Chinn and Budda Baker were taken in the second round, while Tyrann Mathieu, Kevin Yard and Justin Simmons were taken in the third round.
Off-ball linebacker: I went in here thinking the evidence would support waiting until day two, beyond a shadow of a doubt. However, out of 19 players who would be considered quality starters, nine are former first-round picks.
But before you get tuned up, the evidence didn't show that you have to take the position in the first round. Six second-round picks have turned into quality starters. One of them, Shaq Leonard, is considered one of the best at the position. Fred Warner, a former third-round pick, would be another example.
I would say the evidence here suggests that waiting to draft an off-ball linebacker until day two isn't strong, but it's definitely a better idea to wait on this position than the likes of pass rusher and cornerback. If you have a choice between, say, a top cornerback and a top off-ball linebacker, take the cornerback.
Tight end: Travis Kelce is the only player who had an AV of 50 or higher. George Kittle and Darren Waller haven't hit 50 AV yet. However, these three have something in common: None were former first-round picks.
Kelce, arguably the best tight end in the NFL, was taken in the third round. Kittle, who has emerged into a top-five player, was taken in the fifth. Waller, who broke out in 2019, was taken in the sixth.
And if you add somebody like Zach Ertz, you have added a second-round pick. In fact, you have to go to more recent drafts to look for first-round tight ends who look like top guys, such as TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts.
Perhaps Hockenson and Pitts will change my thinking on this subject, but based on what's out there, I would wait until day two before I take a tight end.
Running back: Of the 16 running backs who have AV of 50 or higher, or more recent picks considered qualty starters, six were taken in the first round, six in the second and three in the third.
Your chances of getting a quality running back on day two are just as good, if not better, than taking one in the first round. Therefore, as with tight ends, it's better to wait.
As for run-defending interior defenders, just three had an AV of 50 or higher: Lawrence Guy, Brandon Williams and Da'Quan Jones. The one taken earliest was Williams in the third round. It goes without saying you shouldn't take a nose tackle early in the draft.
In looking at the samples above, I would categorize the position as follows:
* Take the player in the first round, particularly if he has the talent: Quarterback, pass rusher, offensive tackle, cornerback.
* Consider the player early, but it's OK to wait until day two: Wide receiver, off-ball linebacker, interior offensive line.
* Wait until day two to take the player: Safety, tight end, running back.
* Day three pick only: Run-defending interior defender.
In other words, I found some evidence that I may need to put more of an emphasis on off-ball linebacker than safety and lower the priority for wide receiver. I don't believe the evidence puts off-ball linebacker ahead of wide receiver, but there's a better argument for taking an off-ball linebacker earlier when compared to a safety.
In the next segment, I'll look at the success teams have had since 2011 depending on the number of total picks they have made.