The NFL Draft: The Expected Floor for Each Round
Not every draft pick will become a quality starter, but the round in which the player is taken affects the expectation.
It's difficult for NFL teams to hit on every draft pick. Regardless of how you evaluate draft picks, the majority don't become significant contributors.
However, how one defines a hit or a bust depends on what analysts consider. There are those that take a "hit or bust" approach to every pick, while others recognize that plenty of factors can come into play, such as how elite players are rare and that unexpected injuries happen.
I'm not the type who thinks that every pick has to be called "hit or bust" because no team is going to get it right with every pick. However, I do believe it's important for teams to "hit" on earlier picks, while it's not as important to do so in the later rounds.
Because not every pick will turn into a top player, I don't believe people should set their expectations high for every pick. Instead, they should increase expectations for the rounds in which there is more risk and, thus, more should be expected in return.
Since the implementation of the rookie pay scale, salaries for draft picks have come down but there's still risk involved. First-round picks get a four-year, fully guaranteed contract that comes with a fifth-year option. Second- and third-round picks get the first two years fully guaranteed while other drafted players get the first year fully guaranteed.
Furthermore, the earlier a player is drafted, the more money he will get in the rookie contract. Thus, teams take on greater risk with a player drafted earlier than a player drafted later. That means that, the earlier a player is drafted, the more a team should expect in return.
Knowing the money that comes with drafted players and that not every pick is going to excel, here’s the minimal expectation teams should set for each round of the NFL draft.
First-round picks: Long-term starter.
For players taken in the first round, they need to become a starter by the beginning of year two and develop into someone worthy of being part of the team's long-term plans. He should get a second contract at some point after he's eligible and remain a starter.
If the player is a top 10 pick, he needs to become an elite player who is unquestionably a cornerstone player. Picks 11 through 20 should ideally become elite, but a quality starter is fine. Picks 21 through 32 may not become elite, given that such players are rare, but they do need to become quality starters.
These players come with a fifth-year option and should at least demonstrate they are worth exercising that option. Sometimes a player may not get it exercised because the team decides to extend the player once he's eligible. Drafted players are automatically eligible for extensions after they complete their third accrued seasons, so it's possible to extend a first-round pick before the decision on his option comes due.
In a few cases, a team might decline the fifth-year option but extend the player, anyway. That's fine, though, because it demonstrates the player was worth keeping as a starter. Of course, such cases will be rare, particularly now that salaries have increased at every position and that the formula for fifth-year options has changed.
The main thing you are looking for from a first-round pick is a player you expect to have for the long term and to be a player who is vital to the roster. The earlier the pick comes in the round, the greater the importance of finding an elite player.
Second-round picks: Short-term starter.
In the second round, you want to find players that become quality starters, but they might not always be part of the long-term picture. But you still want to these players to start for at least three seasons.
Whether they get extended or not may depend on your overall draft. If you find a steal in the later rounds, for example, you may want to extend that player instead.
However, for a second-round pick to pay off, the player should at least demonstrate he's worth consideration for an extension.
Ideally, you find players in the second round who can be part of the team for the long term. But the main thing you are looking for is somebody who is an important part of the team for the short term and, when it comes time for an extension, to have a case for one, with the only time you don't extend him is when another player proves more worthy.
Third-round picks: Contributor who might not get extended.
When you get to the third round, you want players who offer significant contributions in their time with the team. Ideally, they would start for a season or two, but finding somebody like a No. 3 receiver or No. 3 cornerback is fine.
In this case, you might not be in a position to extend the player because you have to make choices about who to extend. If your first- and second-round picks in a given year prove worthy of extensions and you extend them, you might have to let your third-round pick depart, even if he shows he's worth extending.
Fourth-round picks: Quality depths who might be extended as such.
When you get to the fourth round, this is the point in which you are thinking more about depth than starters. Not every player you draft will become a starter, so in this round, it's about shoring up your depth.
Players who prove to be quality depth players can be worth extending. If a fourth-round pick turns into a quality starter, you have a value pick.
Fifth through seventh rounds: Depth but some might not make the roster.
Because the first four rounds are the ones in which the best talent is often taken, it's harder to find starters at this point. Thus, you set your expectations lower for the final three rounds.
In these rounds, it's fine to take chances on players. There could be players with health issues or, in some cases, an off-field issue that the player appears to have under control. Rolling the dice on such players is acceptable because of the lowered expectations.
Any time you find a quality starter in these rounds, you have a draft-day steal. If you are fortunate enough to find an elite player in these rounds, you have an all-time steal.
A Note About Draft Busts
For the first three rounds, any player who fails to finish his rookie contract for skill-related reasons or off-field issues is a clear bust. In the first three rounds, the floor is at least "contribute for four seasons" and failure to get past that floor means a missed pick.
When it comes to injuries, this depends on the nature of the injury. Ryan Shazier, for example, suffered a significant neck/spinal injury, the type that rarely happens and should never be held against the player. Thus, he shouldn't be considered a bust.
On the other hand, players who had injuries throughout college, but are still taken in the earlier rounds, might be fairly called "busts" because teams chose to risk an earlier pick on the player in question.
How This Impacts Draft Strategy
With the floor set for each round, teams now have a better idea about what to expect. While they certainly need to keep team needs in mind, they should remember that there are cases in which a talented player may be too good to pass up.
That's why it's still a good idea to think about the best player available even if it's not the position of greatest need in the earlier rounds. If you need a cornerback but none are available, but there are plenty of talented wide receivers, go ahead and take the receiver. You have a better chance of getting a return on your investment than reaching for need.
When you get into the later rounds, you may be better off focusing on needs. While it's true you may have a harder time finding starters then, you at least have a shot at filling a need.
If you trade up in the draft, expectations for the pick are likely to rise, but the floor will always be the same. If you trade into the top 10, you need to get an impact player, even if your original pick was between 21 and 32.
If you trade down, expectations for the pick might be lower. However, the floor still doesn't change. The point to remember is that, regardless of whether you stay with your original pick, trade up or trade down, the floor for each round remains the same.
The expectations for each round tie into considerations for when it's best to target a particular position. I'll look at those considerations in the next installment.