The NFL Quarterback Dominoes Start to Fall
Looking at the Geno Smith trade, the Sam Darnold situation and other QBs who are expected to hit free agency.
For NFL fans, Monday is the day.
Or to put it another way: Monday will be the start of the two-day "legal tampering" period in which teams may negotiate with all pending unrestricted free agents. While deals cannot be officially signed in that two-day period, players and teams may agree to terms.
In the past, we've seen most of the free agency dominoes fall in those first two days, to the point that once the new NFL league year officially starts, there's not as much activity that gets people buzzing.
Of course, we've had plenty of seasons in which a number of trades are agreed upon. Again, the trades can't be processed until the start of the league year, but that's where buzz can happen before even the "legal tampering" period starts.
And it turns out we have one trade that's started the process of how the quarterback landscape will unfold during free agency. That's the Raiders sending a third-round pick to the Seahawks for quarterback Geno Smith.
I will admit I did not have the Raiders trading for Geno Smith on my offseason scorecard. While I wasn't convinced that the Raiders would sign free agent Russell Wilson, I had that one down as a possibility. But I didn't consider Smith one.
Smith does provide an upgrade over Gardner Minshew, who the Raiders plan to release. Acquiring Smith doesn't rule out the Raiders drafting a quarterback, though it may indicate they aren't interested in trading up from No. 6 overall to get one.
As for the Seahawks, they have now been linked to Sam Darnold. It remains to be seen if that happens, but if it does, the question becomes how much he gets versus what Smith gets in an extension.
Smith isn't an elite quarterback but he's been effective the past few seasons. Darnold had his best season as a pro in 2024 but the question is whether he can have similar success in 2025, particularly with a new coaching staff.
When it comes to Darnold, I would use Baker Mayfield as the comp. Mayfield signed for three years at $100M. When you account for the salary cap increase and what is likely to be a bump for the position, I'd put Darnold at three years for $110M.
Meanwhile, when it comes to Smith, he certainly has a case to get a raise over his previous three-year, $75M. I would put him down for a three-year extension but give him more than Darnold. That could mean a three-year, $120M extension.
If Smith does get more than Darnold, it's understandable why the Seahawks would want to move on. If not, I'm not sure I understand the strategy unless the Seahawks believe Darnold is a good fit for their offense.
The other question, of course, is whether either team truly believes it's rebuilding. The Seahawks cutting several players isn't surprising because they needed to clear cap space. But if they are truly preparing for a rebuild, they need to be careful how much they commit to Darnold beyond 2025.
As for the Raiders, I'm not convinced they are a QB away from being a playoff contender, but Smith does make their team better. The question now is how long they commit to Smith. Though he has played well, he's not getting any younger and, at some point, the Raiders will have to think about their quarterback for the long term.
Meanwhile, what about quarterback moves? Let's consider who else is on the move and where they might be headed.
Aaron Rodgers: The Jets are expected to release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation. I'm not sure I buy into the claims that he'll go to the Vikings. After all, you could repeat the situation with the Packers, only replacing Jordan Love with JJ McCarthy. Do the Vikings really want to go through with that?
If Rodgers wants a shot at the playoffs without controversy, the Steelers are his best option. Whether that's the best option for the Steelers is another question, but the Steelers have a roster in place that could give Rodgers the best chance for success. But if the Steelers are thinking about possibly targeting a QB in the 2026 draft, Rodgers might not be the direction they want to go.
Russell Wilson: I would imagine that Wilson will want a chance to start. However, he's likely at the point that he's going to have accept being a bridge quarterback, though he could be in position to argue for a contract similar to Kirk Cousins, with the only exception that he won't get all his 2026 money fully guaranteed.
As for the team he's most likely to play for, I'm not certain it will be for a playoff contender. That means a team like the Titans may come into play here. The Titans could at least sell it as the hope that Wilson can make them competitive but, if it doesn't work out, they will be in position to draft a QB in 2026. And if the Titans do trade down from No. 1 overall, as some have speculated, that could give them the draft capital to ensure they get their QB in 2026.
Justin Fields: If any quarterback should be signing with the Vikings, it's this guy. Fields would be a better option for the Vikings because, while he has starting experience, he's more likely to know that he'll have to compete for a starting job.
For the Vikings, Fields gives them a younger QB to take a chance on in case things don't work out with JJ McCarthy. For Fields, it's a chance to learn from coaches who got the most out of Darnold and just might get the most out of him, thus potentially raising his stock for 2026.
Kirk Cousins: I'm not sure I understand why the Falcons would keep Cousins around. Michael Penix Jr. showed enough last season that he should be the starter for 2025. I know Cousins is due $27.5M in 2025, but the Falcons really need to avoid that $10M roster bonus in 2026 becoming fully guaranteed.
The Falcons need to just cut Cousins with the post-June 1 designation before the roster bonus in 2026 gets locked in. As for another team, Cousins will likely have to accept a situation in which he can compete for the starting job but nothing is guaranteed. The Browns would make sense here because Cousins could sign for the veteran minimum.
Note on other teams: I think the Giants will draft a quarterback early, so they will likely focus on top backup options. I don't think it would hurt for them to look at Zach Wilson or Mac Jones but not promise them anything. The Jets might look at a QB in the draft as well, but I suspect they'll look for an older veteran, meaning somebody like Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz or Jameis Winston could be the guy.
There will also be teams who will look for a backup to either push a young QB who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations (Colts) or simply need a veteran behind a younger QB who has earned his starting job (Commanders, Broncos, Patriots). In the latter case, it’s possible they retain a backup QB they had last year.