The NFL Trade Game: Examining Four Cases
Let's consider what would be involved in trades for four NFL players who are in that conversation.
Every NFL offseason, you're bound to hear the talk about what NFL players might be traded. Whether it's the player who is not happy with his current situation or the team who decides it no longer wants to keep a name player, the buzz starts about who might get traded and what the compensation will be.
In recent offseasons, we've seen plenty of trades involving high-profile players. There was the 2022 offseason that featured Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Tyreek Hill, Khalil Mack, Matt Ryan and Davante Adams in March alone. Jump ahead to 2023 and the most notable offseason trades would include Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey and DJ Moore (though in Moore's case, it may have been more noteworthy for the Panthers getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft).
Last season's offseason trade market started with a bunch of quarterbacks that teams drafted in years prior, then decided to move. A couple other trades involved players who got the franchise tag, then were later dealt (Brian Burns and La'Jarius Sneed). There were trades involving the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jerry Jeudy but no trade arguably had the notoriety of those involving veteran QBs like Wilson and Rodgers.
Already, we have a few names getting tossed around as possible trade candidates. While no trade possibility can ever be ruled out, not every trade possibility is as simple to execute as it may first appear.
Let's look at some of the players who have been mentioned as potential trade candidates.
Myles Garrett: We already heard from Garrett about wanting the chance to play for a Super Bowl and not wanting to stay with a team that has a lot of work to do to get there (namely solving its issues at quarterback). Trading Garrett isn't that simple for the Browns, though.
To trade Garrett, the Browns would lose cap space. This is even after accounting for the $13.4M option bonus due in September, which is treated as a signing bonus if exercised. Given that the Browns are already projected to be $30.2M over the cap, assuming a base cap of $272.5M, trading Garrett does complicate matters a bit.
This does not mean it's impossible to trade Garrett, though. A trade could be pulled off if the Browns find other ways to clear cap space. One possible way to do this is to do a maximum restructure of cornerback Denzel Ward, cut offensive tackle Jack Conklin and include cornerback Greg Newsome II in a trade for Garrett or just trade him to another team.
As far as compensation goes, the Bears trade for Khalil Mack is not a good comparison because Mack was younger when that trade happened. It's still possible a first-round pick is included in a trade for Garrett but multiple firsts aren't likely.
One other possibility is the Browns wait until after June 1 to trade Garrett, which allows them to gain cap space. However, they might not get as much for Garrett at that point because teams will have filled other roster needs. More importantly, if the Browns do decide to deal Garrett, they would likely want 2025 draft capital as compensation. Therefore, they may not consider it worth waiting until after June 1.
Cooper Kupp: The Rams have already made it known that they intend to trade Kupp. In this case, the Rams would gain cap space, though to gain the maximum amount, they need to complete a trade before March 17 when Kupp is due a $7.5M roster bonus.
Cutting Kupp to avoid paying the roster bonus isn't necessarily out of the question. It's true that Kupp is due $5M in fully guaranteed salary but it's not likely he'd sign for less than that if he were to join another team.
Still, the Rams would likely prefer to get some draft capital in return. However, they probably won't get much. A fifth-round pick in 2025 is likely what they would get, though they might be able to get a 2026 conditional pick included. With that said, the Rams have been pretty good at finding contributors on Day 3 of the draft, so they won't necessarily be disappointed with a fifth rounder.
A team who acquires Kupp would have him under contract for two seasons, though he has no guaranteed money left in 2026. However, he does have a $5M roster bonus due March 17, 2026, so an acquiring team would have to decide whether or not to keep or cut him before that date.
Deebo Samuel: If the Niners were to trade Samuel, they would have to do so before March 22 because he due an option bonus of nearly $16M. If that option is exercised, it converts into a signing bonus and means the Niners would lose cap space in a trade done before June 1.
Though the Niners are projected to have $44.2M in cap space, it doesn't make sense for them to trade him at a cost of cap space. Therefore, they couldn't wait too long after the March 12 start to the 2025 league year to agree to trade terms.
A team who acquires Samuel could decide whether or not to exercise the option bonus or just treat it as a base salary. Teams could certainly treat him as a player to try out for one year, then decide if he's worth extending. The Niners have used Samuel as a gadget player, though the receiver has said he wants to be utilized more often as a typical receiver.
Samuel might net better draft pick compensation than Kupp but it won't necessarily be a lot. He's a player who might stand a better chance for the Niners to get a conditional pick in 2026 because he'll be just 29 years old.
Matthew Stafford: More recently, the rumors started about the Rams possibly trading their quarterback. Stafford has been linked to the Giants, though who knows if a trade to the Giants would actually happen.
But let's consider what would happen should Stafford be traded. The Rams wouldn't gain a lot of cap space by doing so and would certainly need to add another quarterback, though they are projected to be $38.3M under the cap and would have space to sign another veteran.
A team acquiring Stafford would have him under contract for the next two seasons. He's due a $23M base salary and a $4M roster bonus, the latter which is fully guaranteed. Still, $27M is a reasonable salary to pay for him and he has no guaranteed money in 2026.
If a trade goes down, it's certainly not going to involve multiple firsts, given that Stafford is 37 years old. A third-round pick is more likely to be the highest pick involved as compensation.
And while it doesn't appear that Stafford has a no-trade clause in his current contract, it still makes more sense for a team that is truly a quarterback away from making a deep playoff run than one which is further away. There are plenty of teams needing QB help, but the ones who are drafting in the top 10 aren't the ones who should be trading for a 37-year-old QB in hopes of an instant turnaround.