The Packers and the Cap: Time to Make A QB Decision
With the Packers needing to clear cap space in 2022, they'll have to decide who will be their QB for the foreseeable future.
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The Green Bay Packers are likely going to win the NFC North again and they have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs as of this writing.
The Packers are also a team that will have some tough decisions to make during the 2022 offseason -- namely about the quarterback.
That's because the Packers are projected to be $38.7M over the cap for 2022, assuming a base cap of $208.2M. And that's with 42 players currently under contract -- get up to 51 and they have $46.5M of effective cap space.
There's a chance that the Packers could win the Super Bowl this year, so it would seem hard to believe they would start parting ways with certain players after the season. However, given their cap situation, they might not have a choice.
Let's go over the Packers and consider the moves they will need to make if they are going to get under the cap.
Either extend or trade QB Aaron Rodgers: The Packers quarterback made it no secret he wasn't happy with his situation and, while the Packers didn't move forward with a trade this past offseason, they did renegotiate his contract and now he'll count for a $46.1M cap charge. Even for a QB of Rodgers' talents, that's too high.
Because the Packers voided his deal after the 2022 season, they will now have to decide whether they will commit to Rodgers not just for 2022, but beyond, or if they will just move on. Trading Rodgers frees $19.2M in cap space, while with an extension, the cap space acquired depends on how that extension is structured.
But either an extension or a trade must happen -- and if it's an extension, the Packers need to act as though they are committed to him for the remainder of his career, however long he decides to play.
Now, let's look at moves the Packers should make, regardless of whether or not they stick with Rodgers.
Cut edge rusher Za'Darius Smith: He's missed the bulk of the season because of back surgery, but is expected to be activated from injured reserve before season’s end. Still, the question is how effective he'll be once he returns to the lineup. The 2022 NFL draft is deep in terms of edge rusher talent, so the Packers can always draft his replacement. Cutting Smith frees $15.75M in cap space.
Restructure OT David Bakhtiari: Though Bakhtiari has missed time with injuries this season, the Packers won't get any cap relief by cutting him. Even then, that’s probably not ideal. The best bet for the Packers is to restructure his $9.5M roster bonus into a signing bonus and hope he stays healthy in 2022.
Restructure IDL Kenny Clark: Clark continues to play well and has three years left on his deal. The Packers can save some cap space by restructuring his $6.4M roster bonus and a portion of his $8M base salary for 2022.
Extend S Adrian Amos: While Amos isn't an elite safety, he's still playing at a level that justifies keeping him around. He'll be just 29 years old in 2022, so it would make sense to extend him to lower his cap hit.
Extend CB Jaire Alexander: He's missed time with a shoulder injury but didn't require surgery. Alexander has played at a high level prior to his injury, so it makes sense to keep him for the long term. Doing so would lower the $13.2M salary he's due on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal.
Extend WR Davante Adams: The franchise tag is likely coming for Adams and the other moves I've mentioned would make it possible to do that. However, the Packers would be well served to extend him and keep a core player around.
The last two moves I mention are ones to make depending on what happens with Rodgers.
If Rodgers is traded, cut WR Randall Cobb: The main reason Cobb was acquired was to pacify Rodgers, but if the Packers trade him, there's no reason to keep Cobb. Some might argue the move should be done regardless of what happens with Rodgers, but if he's extended, you may as well let Cobb stick around.
If Rodgers is extended, trade QB Jordan Love: This is less about cap space and more about making it clear that you are committing to Rodgers. The Packers would be better off trading Love while they still can, to at least recoup something after their move up the board in the 2020 draft to take him. I could see teams willing to give up a 2022 third-round pick to see if Love can be their guy. The Packers might be able to get a conditional pick in 2023 that's dependent on Love's performance in 2022.