The Riskiness of Trading Up in the First for a QB
The Riskiness of Trading Up in the First for a QB
While a few moves up the first round have gotten NFL teams their guy, there are far more that failed in that regard.
I've talked about trades for veteran quarterbacks the past couple of times and found that it wasn't often that the trades worked out as expected when they involved higher picks, but got good return with lower picks.
But trading for a veteran QB isn't the only bold move that a team can make. Another bold move a team can make is to trade up the NFL draft board for a quarterback.
Since the salary cap and true free agency were instituted in the years 1933 and 1994, there haven't been as many trades up the board for quarterbacks as one may think. We've seen more of them in recent years, though, likely because the rookie pay scale makes a drafted quarterback more attractive.
The ones I'm focusing on are trades in which teams moved up or back into the first round. Getting a QB in the first round is particularly desirable these days, because you get the fifth-year option for first-round picks. If the quarterback works out, you can keep him for a fifth season at a cost that's not cheap, but still below what you would normally pay for a QB.
Since 1993, there have been 26 trades up the board for quarterbacks in the first round. If you are looking for a QB in the first round, you really need that QB to be a long-term guy.
So the first criteria I set for a trade to work out is the QB needs to be around for at least six seasons. That means he's been around through the year in which the fifth-year option kicks in, plus an additional season.
The second criteria I set is that the team needs to have a winning record in at least 50 percent of the seasons the quarterback is the starter. That accounts for the fact that some QBs take a year to develop.
The third criteria is that the team needs to make the playoffs at least 40 percent of the seasons that the QB is the starter. That accounts for the fact that a team could play in a tough division and might miss out in a given year, despite posting a winning record.
Let's examine these trades, in chronological order, and see which trades worked out, which didn't and which are to be determined (and there are at least a couple because they are recent trades).
2001: Falcons trade up to No. 1 overall with Chargers for Michael Vick.
Vick was considered the best quarterback prospect in the draft in 2001 and the Chargers had the top pick. While it appeared the Chargers were going to take Vick, they agreed to send the No. 1 overall pick to the Falcons for the fifth overall pick, a third-round pick and a 2002 second-round pick.
Vick started just two games as a rookie (though he took a few snaps in six other games), then claimed the starting job outright in 2002. The Falcons got their first winning record under Vick (9-6-1) and made the playoffs.
However, Vick was injured in the 2003 preseason and missed 11 games. He came back in 2004 and the Falcons finished 11-5 and made the playoffs again. But the team then went 8-8 in 2005 and 7-9 in 2006, resulting in two playoff trips in six seasons.
Then, in 2007, Vick was arrested for his involvement in a dog fighting ring. He was suspended indefinitely by the NFL, then the Falcons released him in 2009 after failed attempts to trade away the rights to him while Vick awaited reinstatement.
Whether or not Vick would have found more success with the Falcons, were it not for his arrest for dog fighting, is a matter of debate. But given the results the Falcons got, their bold move didn't quite work out as expected.
2003: Ravens trade up with Patriots to select Kyle Boller.
The Ravens weren't far removed from a Super Bowl trip but were still searching for a quarterback. They saw one they liked in the 2003 draft in Kyle Boller, and moved into the first round to get the 19th overall pick from the Patriots. In doing so, they sent their second-round pick (41st overall) and a 2004 first-round pick.
This trade becomes our first true bust among draft-day deals to select a QB. The Ravens had just one winning season with Boller (2004, when they went 9-7) and never made the playoffs in Boller's five seasons with the teams. Injuries cost Boller a lot of games, but he never developed into a quality passer.
2004: Giants acquire Eli Manning in draft-day trade with Chargers.
The Chargers had the No. 1 pick in the 2004 NFL draft and Eli Manning was the top prospect among QBs. However, after Manning met with Chargers general manager AJ Smith, he announced he didn't want to play for the Chargers. Apparently, that meeting didn't go well.
On draft day, the Chargers took Manning, but informed him they were completing a trade, and that was done after the Giants took Phillip Rivers. The Giants sent Rivers, along with a third-round pick that year, plus first and third-round pics in 2005, to acquire Manning. It was the equivalent of a trade up the draft board, even if it took place after the players were drafted.
How did it work out for the Giants? Well, considering that the Giants won two Super Bowls with Manning, one would say it worked out pretty well. Overall, Manning played 16 seasons with the team, 15 seasons in which he started at least eight games, and the Giants had seven seasons with a winning record and made the playoffs in six of those seasons.
While the Giants didn't quite hit the criteria -- perhaps because they stuck it out with Manning longer than they should have -- I would call this a trade that worked out reasonably well. It's one trade in which you may feel free to debate how strict my criteria should be.
2004: Bills trade into the first round for J.P. Losman.
Though the Bills already had Drew Bledsoe under contract, they liked what they saw in Losman and made a deal with the Cowboys to move back into the first roiund. The Cowboys sent the 22nd overall pick to the Bills, who sent back their 2004 second-round pick (43rd overall), a fifth-round pick and a 2005 first-round pick.
Losman took over as the starter in 2005, but struggled and was benched for Kelly Holcomb. He showed some improvement in 2005, starting all 16 games, but that was the only season he started 16 games for the Bills. The team never had a winning record under Losman and he was gone after the 2008 season. Thus, this is another trade that goes down as a clear bust.
2005: Washington makes a move for Jason Campbell.
Washington had Mark Brunell as its starter, but he wasn't getting any younger, and the team decided to move back into the first round to select Campbell. The team got the 25th overall pick from the Broncos, who sent back a third-round pick (76th overall) and what became a first and fourth-round picks in 2006.
Campbell started seven games in 2006, then took over as the starter in 2007. However, in his four seasons with the team, Washington never finished better than 8-8. He was traded to the Raiders in 2010 for a fourth-round pick in 2012, making this another move up the draft board that went down as a bust.
2006: Broncos trade up with Rams for Jay Cutler.
Though the Broncos had success with Jake Plummer as the starter, the Broncos decided to move toward the future and traded up the board to select Cutler. They got the 11th overall pick from the Rams for the 15th overall pick and a third-round pick.
Cutler took over as the starter for the Broncos' final five games, but they went 2-3 in those games. The Broncos then went 7-9 in 2007 and 8-8 in 2008, even as Cutler threw for 4,500-plus yards in 2008. That's when the Broncos fired Mike Shanahan, hired Josh McDaniels, and the latter and Cutler butted heads, leading to Cutler's eventual trade to the Bears.
While Cutler had a better career than the likes of Losman, Boller and Campbell, the move up the board still goes down as a bust because he lasted just three seasons with the Broncos.
2007: Browns move back into the first round for Brady Quinn.
The Browns had been looking for a quarterback for some time and, when Quinn fell down the board, they figured it was worth trading into the first round to get him. They got the 22nd overall pick from the Cowboys, in exchange for a second-round pick and a 2008 first-round pick.
However, Quinn failed to be the quarterback the Browns could build around. He only attempted eight passes in 2007, then started just three games in 2008. The most starts he had for the team was 2009, in which he had nine. He was then traded to the Broncos before the 2010 season, and thus the move up the board went down as a bust.
2008: Ravens wheel and deal, then take Joe Flacco.
The Ravens had the No. 8 overall pick in the draft and needed a quarterback, but with Matt Ryan off the board, the next best QB prospect was Flacco. Not everyone thought he was worth a top 10 pick, but some had linked Flacco to the Ravens.
The Ravens opted to trade down from No. 8, sending that pick to the Jaguars for the 26th overall pick, two thirds and a fourth. Then they came back up the board, getting the No. 18 overall pick for the 26th overall pick, one of the thirds they got from the Jaguars and a sixth-round pick. The Ravens then took Flacco No. 18 overall.
Flacco may not be an elite QB, but the Ravens had a winning record in seven of Flacco's 11 seasons as the starter (though he was replaced by Lamar Jackson in 2018 after an injury), reached the playoffs in six of those seasons and won a Super Bowl. Say what you want about Flacco, but this trade is a clear winner for the Ravens, particularly in how Ozzie Newsome worked the draft board, picked up additional capital and still got his guy.
2009: Jets move up the board for Mark Sanchez.
After the Jets didn't get a playoff trip with Brett Favre as the starter in 2008, they decided to trade up in the first round to select Sanchez. They got the fifth overall pick from the Browns in exchange for the 17th overall pick, a second-round pick (52nd overall) and three players: defensive lineman Kenyon Coleman, safety Abram Elam and backup quarterback Brett Ratliff.
Things started off well for the Jets, who posted back-to-back winning seasons with playoff trips in 2009 and 2010. In 2011, though, the Jets finished 8-8, then in 2012, things fell apart, with the Jets going 7-9, at which point they decided to move on, given that Sanchez couldn't avoid turning the ball over. We are now on our eighth trade up the first round for a QB and our sixth clear bust.
2009: Bucs trade up to select Josh Freeman.
The Buccaneers moved two spots up the draft board, from 19th overall to 17th overall, to select Freeman. In the trade up the board with the Browns, the Bucs included a sixth-round pick as part of the trade.
Though the Bucs didn't give up much to move up two spots, they didn't get much in return. They did go 10-6 in 2010 with Freeman starting all 16 games, but then had back-to-back losing seasons, then cut him after four games in 2013. Even though it didn't cost much for the Bucs to move up to get Freeman, this goes down as our seventh clear bust out of 10 trades up the first round for a QB.
2010: Broncos trade back into the first round for Tim Tebow.
NFL scouts and draft pundits debated about whether or not Tebow had a future as an NFL passer. The Broncos took a chance on Tebow, sending a second-round pick (43rd overall) along with third and fourth-round picks to the Ravens for the 25th overall pick.
Tebow started just three games in 2010, in which the Broncos went 1-2. Then came 2011, in which the Broncos went 7-4 with a playoff trip despite Tebow's erratic performance on the field. That's when the Colts cut Peyton Manning and the Broncos lured him into the fold, after which they traded Tebow to the Jets. And that makes this our eighth move up the first round for a QB that failed to work out.
2011: Jaguars move up a few spots for Blaine Gabbert.
This draft took place while the NFL players were locked out, but all signs pointed to a rookie pay scale taking effect -- which it did when the owners and players association reached a collective bargaining agreement a few months later.
Thus, one could argue it was even better to get a QB in the first round, and that brings us to the Jaguars, who got the 10th overall pick from Washington in exchange for the 16th overall pick and a second-round pick. The Jaguars took Gabbert with the 10th overall pick.
Gabbert started 14 games that year and the Jaguars won just four. They won just one of the 10 games he started in 2012, and in 2013, he was benched after three games. He was traded to the Niners in 2014, making this our ninth trade up the first round that didn't work out.
2012: Washington gives up a lot for the No. 2 overall pick and Robert Griffin III.
Andrew Luck was the "can't miss" prospect among quarterbacks in the 2012 draft, but RG3 showed the potential to be a franchise guy, too. The Rams had the No. 2 overall pick, but sent the pick to Washington for the sixth overall pick, a second-round pick and first-round picks in 2013 and 2014 -- a staggering haul to move up from sixth to second.
RG3 had a good rookie season and Washington made the playoffs. Unfortunately RG3 tore his ACL near the end of the season, but played through the injury. He never got back to form and Washington never have a winning record with him. The team still exercised his fifth-year option in 2015, but he lost the starting job to Kirk Cousins and never took a snap that year, then was released.
Our count of trades up the first round is now at 10 that failed to work out.
2014: Browns move up the board for Johnny Manziel.
The Browns, for many years, were a running joke in the NFL for their lengthy list of starting quarterbacks who didn't last. Along came 2014, and there was hype surrounding Manziel, though he also had off-field issues. But the Browns sent the 26th overall pick and a third-round pick to the Eagles to get the 22nd overall pick, which they used on Manziel.
He started just eight games in two seasons, before his off-field issues were such a problem that the Browns parted ways with him. Thus, we have our 14th trade up the first round for a QB and the 11th such trade that failed.
2014: Vikings move back into first round for Teddy Bridgewater.
Bridgewater fell down the first round so much, the Vikings saw a chance to get a starting quarterback and got the 32nd overall pick from the Seahawks, sending a second-round pick (40th overall) and a fourth-round pick to get Bridgewater.
The Vikings went 6-6 in Bridgewater's 12 starts in his rookie season, then went 11-5 the next season and made the playoffs. Unfortunately, a freak injury in training camp the next season sidelined Bridgewater and put his future into question.
Bridgewater eventually returned to the field, but not as a starter for the Vikings. Given the circumstances, I'm not putting this down as a clear bust, but describe it more as "what might have been" given that Bridgewater was showing improvement prior to that injury.
2016: Rams send a major haul for the No. 1 overall pick and Jared Goff.
The Titans had the No. 1 overall pick but had taken Marcus Mariota the year before and didn't want another quarterback. The Rams needed a QB and made a bold move to get the No. 1 overall pick, sending to the Titans the 15th overall pick, their two second-round picks in 2016, a third in 2016, and a first and a third in 2017. The Titans sent fourth and sixth-round picks in 2016 back to the Rams to complete the trade.
Goff was bad as a rookie, but after a coaching change, the Rams went 11-5 (11-4 in Goff's 15 starts) and made the playoffs. In 2016, the Rams reached the Super Bowl and things were looking pretty good.
The Rams finished with a winning record in Goff's next two seasons and made the playoffs again in 2020, but Goff had regressed since 2018 and the Rams decided to move on, trading him to the Lions in a blockbuster deal for Matthew Stafford.
While I wouldn't call this move up the board an outright bust, the fact that the Rams have already moved on doesn't make this trade a winner, either.
2016: Eagles trade a lot for No. 2 overall and Carson Wentz.
The Rams weren't the only team who made a bold move up the first round for a QB. The Browns, who reportedly had their sights set on Goff, opted to trade out of the No. 2 overall spot with the Eagles. In doing so, the Eagles sent the eighth overall pick, third and fourth-round picks in 2016, a 2017 first and a 2018 second, while the Browns sent back a 2017 fourth.
The Eagles took Wentz, who was named the starter after they traded Sam Bradford to the Vikings prior to the start of the season. Philly went 7-9 his rookie season, but then had an 11-2 start to the 2017 season, when Wentz tore his ACL. The Eagles moved forward with Nick Foles as the starter and won the Super Bowl.
Wentz played just 11 games in 2018, with the Eagles going 5-6 in those games, but things looked better in 2019 when the Eagles went 9-7 and made the playoffs. Then the wheels came off in 2020, with Wentz playing poorly and being benched for Jalen Hurts after 12 games.
The Eagles traded Wentz to the Colts, and it's harder to defend their move up the first round in 2016, though one could argue the Eagles still might have won the Super Bowl in 2017 if Wentz hadn't been injured. But it still serves as a cautionary tale about making a bold move up the board.
2016: Broncos move up in the first for Paxton Lynch.
Lynch wasn't as highly touted as Goff and Wentz were, so there was no bold move up the board for the third overall pick. There was, however, a move up the board to draft Lynch, in which the Seahawks sent the 26th overall pick to the Broncos for the 31st overall pick and a third-round pick.
Lynch didn't even come close the success that Goff and Wentz managed in their careers, starting just four games in two seasons and being waived before the 2018 season began. This is a clear bust among trades up the first round for QBs and makes it the 12th such trade.
2017: Bears give up a lot to move one spot up for Mitchell Trubisky.
There were three quarterback prospects who some speculated would be first-round picks, with Trubisky among them. Nobody could have predicted the trade up the board to get him, though.
The Niners had the second overall pick and the Bears had the third. The Niners were in need of a quarterback, and that seemed to put the Bears in panic mode, because they included third and fourth round picks in 2017, plus a third in 2018, to move from third to second so they could select Trubisky.
The Bears did go 12-4 in Trubisky's second season with the team, but I imagine most people will credit that to a strong defense. Trubisky regressed in his third season, prompting the Bears to trade for Nick Foles, who eventually took over the starting job, but lost it back to Trubisky, with the Bears slipping into the playoffs.
But the Bears decided not to exercise his fifth-year option and he has yet to be extended. Given that the Bears don't seem enthused about keeping him around, I lean toward bust here, but won't put it down as such until we know what happens in 2021.
2017: Chiefs deal with Bills to draft Patrick Mahomes.
The Bills were rebuilding and rebuilding teams often need quarterbacks, but they opted to trade down with the Chiefs, who wanted Mahomes. The Chiefs got the 10th overall pick in exchange for the 27th overall pick, a 2017 third and an 2018 first.
We know what's happened since: The Chiefs have reached the AFC title game three straight seasons with Mahomes as the start, reached two Super Bowls and won one. Though Mahomes has just finished his fourth season in the NFL, it's pretty clear that this trade has worked out.
It's worth noting that, while the Chiefs made a bold move, it wasn't as bold as the moves for RG3, Goff and Wentz. Perhaps that's a sign of what it means to be "aggressive but not reckless" when pursuing a quarterback.
2017: Texans jump up the board to draft DeShaun Watson.
The Browns needed a quarterback, but after taking Myles Garrett No. 1 overall, they had reportedly hoped to get Mahomes. When the Chiefs traded up to take him, the Browns opted to trade down, sending the 12th overall pick to the Texans for the 25th overall pick and a first-round pick in 2018.
The Texans selected Watson, who missed most of his rookie season because of a torn ACL, but returned strong in 2018 and the Texans made the playoffs in 2018 and 2019. Things fell apart in 2020, though, and now Watson wants out after his fourth season in the NFL.
If Watson is traded, this goes down as another failed move up the board -- not because of Watson himself, but because of the Texans deciding to move on. Remember, the purpose of moving up the board is to get your long-term QB, and if you move on too early, even from a top QB such as Watson, you didn't get your long-term guy.
2018: Jets give up multiple seconds to get Sam Darnold.
The 2018 quarterback class had five prospects who entered the discussion about being worth a first-round pick. Darnold led the way, with some projecting he would be the No. 1 overall pick.
The Colts had the No. 3 overall pick but still had Andrew Luck, so they were open to trading down. Along came the Jets, who sent the No. 6 overall pick, two second-round picks in 2018 and a second-round pick in 2019, to move three spots up the board. After Baker Mayfield went to the Browns at No. 1 overall, the Jets took Darnold.
The Jets haven't gotten any playoff trips out of the move -- the best they have done is 7-9 in 2019 in Darnold's three seasons with the team. It appears they will take a quarterback at No. 2 overall, and if they move on from Darnold after doing so, then the trade will go down as a bust.
2018: Bills move up the draft board for Josh Allen.
After passing on the quarterback class of 2017, the Bills took more interest in the 2018 prospects. They made two moves up the first round -- the first saw Cordy Glenn go to the Bengals, along with the 21st overall pick and a fifth-round pick, while getting back the 12th overall pick and a sixth-round pick, about a month before the draft.
Next came a draft-day trade, with the Bills sending the 12th overall pick, plus two second-round picks, to the Buccaneers for the seventh overall pick. The Bills took Allen, who many debated as to whether or not he would succeed in the NFL.
After three seasons, it's been so far, so good for the Bills, who have winning seasons in 2019 and 2020 with playoff trips, both seasons in which Allen has started all 16 games. If this keeps up, the trade will be a success.
2018: Cardinals move up the board for Josh Rosen.
Some had pegged Rosen the second-best quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft, but his stock fell prior to draft day. But the Cardinals needed a QB and, when Rosen fell down the board, they made a deal with the Raiders, getting the 10th overall pick for the 15th overall pick, plus third and fifth-round picks, to select Rosen.
Things didn't work out at all, with the Cardinals finishing with the No. 1 overall pick, changing head coaches and deciding to take Kyler Murray with that pick in 2019. Rosen was sent to the Dolphins for a second-round pick and made this the 13th clear bust among draft day trades for quarterbacks in the first round.
2018: Ravens move back into the first round for Lamar Jackson.
Jackson was considered a good QB prospect but not everyone was convinced that he was a first-round prospect. But when he was still on the board late in the first, the Ravens made a move back into the first, getting the 32nd overall pick from the Eagles for their second-round pick (52nd overall), a fourth and a 2019 second, so they could select Jackson.
Jackson started seven games in 2018 after Joe Flacco was injured, and while he wasn't that good as a rookie, he broke out big time in 2019, with the Ravens going 14-2 and Jackson winning MVP. While Jackson wasn't as good in 2020, the Ravens finished 11-5 and made the playoffs again.
As with Allen, the trade for Jackson has worked out well so far for the Ravens, and if they continue to make the playoffs, the trade will continue to pay off.
Thus, out of 25 trades up the first round or back into the first round for quarterbacks, we have 13 clear busts, or more than half the trades. Five more trades (Vick, Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Darnold) would lean toward that direction. Two trades are clear successes (Manning and Flacco) and one definitely trending that way (Mahomes). Two more trades are "so far, so good (Allen and Jackson), while the Bridgewater trade depends on how you look at it, and the Watson trade will depend on whether or not the Texans keep him and build a good team around him.
Still, we have just three trades out of 25 that are clearly winners, and if the two "so far, so good" trades join them, that makes for a 20-percent success rate. That's not bad, but not great, either. And when you consider that 72 percent of the trades would be considered a disappointment or worse, it's clear you have to be careful with moving up in the first round, or back into it, to get your quarterback.
That will leave us with free agency, which I'll cover in the next installment.