The Saints Need to Rebuild, Even If They Can't 'Blow It Up'
It's time for the Saints to stop pretending they are just a few players away from the playoffs.
For the past few seasons, the New Orleans Saints have approached their situation as if they were just a few players away from a deep playoff run. It has led to general manager Mickey Loomis repeatedly restructuring contracts to get more cap space, then turning around and signing players in free agency in hopes the Saints get over the hump.
But after a 2-0 start to the 2024 season, which was followed by the Saints losing multiple players to injury, then struggling in every aspect of the game, head coach Dennis Allen was fired after nine games. They are projected to be $62.7M over the cap for 2025, assuming a base cap of $272.5M. And yet we hear reports that the Saints don't intend to rebuild this coming offseason.
With that said, some people might think "rebuild" means that you strip everything down on the current roster and replenish through the draft. While that is one way to think about it, it's not the only way and, more importantly, it's not the way to think of it in general.
Generally speaking, a "rebuild" means you stop building the team as though you were just a few players away from a deep playoff run and start the process of identifying younger players on the roster who can be building blocks, preparing to move on from older players when it is possible to do so, and focusing on acquiring draft capital as much as you can.
In the Saints' case, they won't be gutting the roster because it's not going to help in the way people think it will. They have restructured so many contracts that they get little or no help from a cap standpoint if they do a straight cut.
And because teams may only use the post-June 1 designation on two players -- and they must carry the full cap hit until June 1 -- that designation is not going to get the Saints out of their predicament. The reality is, they will have to keep a lot of the aging players on the roster because they can't get cap relief by cutting them.
What the Saints instead need to do is be prepared to make some tough choices when it comes to the players who they will be able to cut or trade and get some cap relief. From there, they will have to do a final round of restructures, then sit out free agency aside from cheap players who will likely have to take veteran minimum deals. They can then focus on the draft, knowing that any post-June 1 cuts they make will give them space to sign those draft picks.
How exactly are the Saints going to do this? Let's start by noting that the Saints currently have 49 players under contract. Once the offseason starts, only the top 51 cap hits count toward the cap, so they only need to add two players to get the cutoff point. In this case, the Saints should sign 10 players to futures contracts, which gives them 59 players under contract.
The Saints currently have about $3.7M in cap space, which can be carried over into 2025. That would get them to about $59M above the cap. Let's assume that's what they're looking at and we'll figure out how the Saints might be able to get under the cap.
Try to trade Derek Carr, but failing that, cut him: This may seem to some people to be exactly what you don't do, but the Saints need to swallow their pride and move on from Carr. Because Carr has $10M in fully guaranteed salary, it's not likely he'd sign for the veteran minimum elsewhere, so if he is cut, the Saints will likely get some of that money offset.
However, the Saints should first try to trade Carr because a team that is built for the playoffs, but needs a quarterback and may not be happy with the QBs currently on the roster, might be willing to do so. I wouldn't ask for a lot in return -- a fifth-round pick in 2025 and a conditional pick in 2026, which increases by round based on the acquiring team's playoff success in 2025, may be what the Saints have to settle for.
I'll operate under the assumption that the Saints are able to trade Carr. Doing so frees up $11.3M in cap space.
Part ways with OT Ryan Ramczyk: The 2017 first-round pick missed the season with a significant injury and has been contemplating retirement. The Saints, however, can't afford to wait on a decision and should just cut him outright. If he does notify them that he will retire, ask him to file it immediately. That frees another $6M in cap space and doesn't require the Saints to use a post-June 1 designation and carry his cap hit until June 1.
Trade WR Chris Olave: Though Olave has missed multiple games because of concussions, there's still the possibility that somebody would trade for him at the cost of a day three pick. The Saints should thus explore the trade market. If Olave indicates he's going to stop playing football, the Saints could get the same cap relief as if he was traded, which would be $3.3M.
Assuming the Saints get to 59 players under contract with futures contracts signed, the Saints would now be at 56 players under contract. The Saints also have two exclusive rights free agents (Nephi Sewell and Millard Bradford) who can be tendered and get the Saints up to 58 players. Now let's look at the next moves to make.
Cut Khalen Saunders, Foster Moreau and J.T. Gray: This is mostly to help the Saints make some progress toward getting under the cap before restructures start. They can always bring these players back on lower-cost salaries if necessary. This frees $7.2M in cap space and puts the Saints at $36.5M above the cap.
Restructure players for the final time: Now we come to the players whose contracts will have to be restructured in order to get the Saints under the cap. In some cases, these are aging players but they need to be kept for one more year, then allowed to move on. In other cases, they are players who were recently extended but can be kept as part of the core moving forward.
I'm going to start with the younger players first, then work my way to older players.
Pete Werner: He was extended earlier this year and is the first who can be restructured, though it won't give them a lot of room. I restructured $3M of his base salary. The Saints are $34.1M above the cap.
Cesar Ruiz: Another player who was recently extended. I restructured nearly $8M of his base salary. The Saints are $27.7M above the cap.
Carl Granderson: He's 29 years old so it should be fine to restructure him for one more season. I restructured $6.5M of his base salary. The Saints are $22.4M above the cap.
Erik McCoy: He's 28 years old and it should be fine to do a restructure here. I restructured $8.4M of his base salary. The Saints are $17.9M above the cap.
Now comes the part I don't want to do but have to, and that's restructure contracts for older players. It's the only way to get the Saints cap relief. Here we go.
Tyrann Mathieu: Trading him won't do anything to give the Saints cap relief. Thus, I had to restructure nearly $5M in base salary and his $1M roster bonus. The Saints are $13.4M above the cap.
Demario Davis: Another player in which the Saints can't get cap relief by trading or cutting him. I had to restructure $5.2M of his base salary and $1.75M in roster bonuses. The Saints are $7.8M above the cap.
Cameron Jordan: Cutting or trading him won't help with cap relief so a restructure is the only option. I restructured $11.2M of his base salary. Finally, the Saints are below the cap, but with $1.1M in cap space.
We thus have a little more work to do to give the Saints additional wiggle room under the cap. That can be accomplished by doing extensions for Trevor Penning and Rashid Shaheed. Penning is a player the Saints can build around, while with Shaheed, I would do a short-term extension to get his cap number lowered. The Saints could get to about $5M under the cap with these moves.
From there, they can then utilize the post-June 1 designation on Taysom Hill and cut him. That would give the Saints enough room to sign their draft picks. They could also cut Cedrick Wilson Jr. for additional wiggle room. The Saints will also have to keep an eye on certain 2022 draft picks who could see proven performance escalators trigger on their contracts and consider who may be worth extending or who they might have to trade.
Regardless of other moves the Saints make, they cannot go into free agency to pursue big-ticket names. They need to focus on younger, cheaper players and concentrate on building through the draft, which might include looking at a quarterback.
By avoiding free agency in 2025, the Saints can get their cap position to a proper point in 2026. At that time, they can figure out if they need to draft a QB in 2026 but will need to be selective in free agency, given they will still have a lot of dead money from expiring contracts.
The Saints can get out of the hole if they simply don't act like they are just a few players away. They are not and need to plan accordingly.
For another opinion on how the Saints could address their cap situation, you may read what Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap had to say.