The Saints' Path Now That Derek Carr Has Retired
It's clear the Saints need to rebuild but they do have a path to get there and resolve their future cap situation.
If the Saints expected to have Derek Carr back for the 2025 season, those expectations have changed after the quarterback announced his retirement after 11 seasons.
Carr was recovering from a shoulder injury and, per reports, he tried different treatments that didn’t help him get healthy and needed surgery that would cause him to miss the 2025 season. He thus decided to retire rather than try to come back.
As a result, Carr will forfeit $30M in guaranteed salary for the 2025 season. Per Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap, it's likely that the Saints will hold off on an official announcement until June 2. That will allow them to spread out dead money charges over two seasons, like any cut, trade or retirement takes effect when the actual move is made after June 2. The Saints may also get a cap credit of $5.749M in 2026.
Carr's retirement means that it's clear the Saints need to enter a rebuild, if they hadn't already started approaching things that way. To their credit, they did draft a quarterback early, taking Tyler Shough in the second round, and were a little more judicious with free agency this offseason.
The Saints will still have some work ahead for them, though. They are already projected to be $42.8M over the cap in 2026, assuming a base cap of $295.5M. However, that figure isn't as bad as it may first appear.
First, the projection is based on 47 players under contract for 2026, so they wouldn't have to add a lot of players to reach the top 51 cutoff for the offseason. Second, they are currently projected to have $27M in cap space and the 2026 figure does not include carryover.
The Saints are still in the process of signing their draft picks, so they'll have a better idea about current and future cap space once that is done. But if they do a good job of making roster decisions in the coming months, they should get themselves into a position in which they don't have to do a lot of work to become cap compliant.
Once June 2 arrives, the Saints could still release a couple of players. The obvious one is Taysom Hill, who is due $10M in 2025. The Saints didn't touch his contract while becoming cap compliant for 2025, which gives them the flexibility to move on from Hill after June 2. In doing so, they will gain $10M in cap space.
The Saints could also opt to cut Demario Davis after June 2, though it wouldn't give them any cap benefit. In this case, it depends on whether or not they think Davis can contribute to the team this season.
Another move they could make is with Trevor Penning. The Saints chose to decline his fifth-year option and he is currently projected to be the swing tackle. However, there might be teams willing to take a chance on him this season. If the Saints decide to trade him, they could pick up a 2026 draft pick, which would give them eight total, and free some cash as well.
If the Saints can keep themselves at between $15M and $20M in cap space this year, that would do a lot to help their 2026 situation. They would still be above the cap, but it would not be as bad as it has been in past seasons.
The Saints did pick up the fifth-year option for Chris Olave, which surprised me given Olave's health issues. But if he stays healthy and plays well, the Saints could extend him after the season to lower his cap number for 2026.
They will likely have to restructure a few deals, but they shouldn't have to do as many as in the past. The Saints could pick four to five deals to restructure but need to stick with younger players. The one contract they need to leave alone is Alvin Kamara, who will be 31 years old in 2026.
If Tyler Shough proves himself in 2025, the Saints wouldn't need to draft a quarterback in 2026. If not, it would not surprise me if the Saints finish with a high first rounder for 2026 and, thus, be in position to draft a QB in what is said to be a good class.
The main thing the Saints need to avoid is the quick fix and the temptation to chase after the NFC South title. It would not surprise me if someone starts the talk about Aaron Rodgers going to the Saints but that is the last thing the Saints should be doing.
I will give the Saints credit for how they approached the offseason for the most part. If they can stick to a judicious path, they should get themselves into a more manageable situation in the future.