The Seahawks and the Salary Cap Decisions Ahead
It's not just quarterback where the Seahawks will have to think about for the long term.
During the 2022 offseason, the Seattle Seahawks surprised some people when they traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks received first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, second-round picks in both years and several players.
The Seahawks went with Geno Smith as their starting quarterback and came out on the better end of the trade. They made the playoffs in 2022, had a winning record in 2023 (though they missed the playoffs) and could finish with a winning record this season.
Their past couple of drafts have gone reasonably well, with Charles Cross a quality offensive tackle, Kenneth Walker III performing well at running back and Jaxon Smith-Nijgba coming along in his second year. Devon Witherspoon isn't quite an impact player but has shown he can do good things.
However, despite the Seahawks coming out on the better end of the Wilson trade, they are now at a crossroads. Entering 2024, they are going to have to make some tough decisions.
The main reason is the Seahawks are going to be over the cap for 2025. They are projected to be $6.1M over the cap, assuming a base cap of $272.5M. That's with 44 players currently under contract — once they sign some players to futures contracts, they're more likely to be $11M over the cap.
The good news is the Seahawks are not in the position that the Saints and Browns are in. They haven't kept kicking the cap can down the road like the Saints, nor are they tied down to a massive contract like the Browns. The Seahawks do have ways to get under the cap and address team needs this offseason. It also helps that the Seahawks have eight draft picks, so they aren't lacking resources there.
The flipside is that some of the moves the Seahawks may need to make might not be popular with the fanbase. In at least one case, the Seahawks might have to part ways with certain players who have been part of the franchise for some time.
The biggest decision the Seahawks will have to make is at quarterback. Geno Smith enters the final year of his contract and is due a base salary of $14.8M and a $10M roster bonus, the latter due on March 20, 2025. He will carry a cap charge of $38.5M.
This is a reasonable cap charge for a QB of Smith's talents. He's proven to be a good starter but not an elite one. However, he will be 35 next year and isn't the long-term answer.
Keeping Smith for 2025 is reasonable, because it would allow the Seahawks to not have to explore free agency for another QB, nor have to be quicker to start a QB that they might draft. But when it comes to the 2025 draft, they need to be draft a QB at some point, to at least give them somebody who could be developed.
But that's not the only thing the Seahawks need to do this offseason. Cross is a good left tackle but the Seahawks don't have much elsewhere on the offensive line. They've committed a lot of resources to other positions and some of these players are getting older, too.
The QB question is an obvious one the Seahawks have, but here are other considerations they'll need to examine this offseason to become cap compliant.
DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, pick one to move: Metcalf and Lockett will combine for about $62M in cap charges. That's too much money to commit to two wide receivers, neither of whom is having their best season.
On the surface, cutting or trading Lockett would make the most sense. He'll be 33 years old in 2025 and his release would save $17M in cash and cap space. However, Metcalf is younger (he'll be 28) and would draw more interest in the trade market. Cutting or trading him saves $18M in cash and $10.8M (his contract structures means less cap space cleared).
My preference would be to see if there are trade offers for Lockett, for whom a team might give a sixth-round pick for, but if there are no offers, then cut him. But if the Seahawks want to allow Lockett the chance to finish his career with the team and want a higher draft pick, then trading Metcalf becomes the option. I would expect Metcalf to get at least a fourth-round pick in return, perhaps higher, or the Seahawks could get a 2026 conditional pick in addition to a 2025 pick.
Renegotiate IDL Dre'Mont Jones' contract or cut him: Jones was signed in 2023 to give the Seahawks a promising interior defender but he hasn't quite lived up to the deal e signed. He's due $16M in base salary for 2025.
The Seahawks could free $11.5M in cap space and the $16M in cash by cutting Jones. I would first attempt to renegotiate his salary, converting some of the money into incentives in exchange for guaranteeing the remainder. That allows the Seahawks to keep him but get some cap space freed in the process.
Cut OT George Fant: I don't blame the Seahawks for taking a chance on Fant, who was coming off a solid season with the Texans, but he injured his knee early in the season and has played in just two games. It's better for the Seahawks to let him move on. Cutting him frees $3.8M in cap space.
Cut IDL Roy Robertson-Harris if you keep Jones: If the Seahawks can get Jones to renegotiate his contract, they can move from Robertson-Harris, who will be 31 next year. If the Seahawks do cut Jones, though, they can keep Robertson-Harris. Cutting Robertson-Harris would save $6.6M in cap space.
These moves would give the Seahawks enough space to explore free agency. After the draft, their next task will be to extend Cross and maybe Walker — and in Walker's case, they could get him for a reasonable deal, given that the running back market may be more active but hasn't gotten out of hand.
Ultimately, though, the Seahawks' long-term picture comes down to what happens at quarterback. But if the front office makes the right decisions, the Seahawks could be in a good position to get to the next level once they find their long-term QB.