The Team's Opinion of Draft Prospects Matters the Most

Every draft analyst can say what they believe about draft prospects, but it's the teams that have to live with the players they select.

Let's say you're planning to buy a new house. There are all kinds of people you can talk to for advice or opinions on what makes the most sense.

A real estate agent will suggest which houses are the best deals. A person with expertise in building design will talk about what to look for in terms of space, floor plans and other aspects. Friends will give advice based on what they like in a home, whether it's the size of the kitchen, the number of bedrooms or the neighborhood in which it's located.

You can look up information about how recently the house was built, the features available, the size of the yard and what appliances are included.

All these people have an opinion and all these factors can be considered when making a decision. But whose opinion matters the most?

The correct answer is always: Yours.

That's because you are the one who is buying the house and needs to decide if the house is right for you. You may also include any people who are going to live with you in the house (though you might not include children too young to understand the process), because they have to live in the house.

Ultimately, it's the people who buy the house and live there to determine if the house is right for them. Everybody else may have an opinion on the house, but unless they are going to live there, their opinions shouldn't carry more weight.

It's the same thing when it comes to the NFL draft. Year after year, you see draft analysts, NFL pundits and mock simulators alike ranking players based on the opinions of one or more people, but none of them actually work for a team. They are certainly allowed their opinions on the players, but they aren't the ones actually drafting the players to be part of a team.

The opinion that matters the most is the opinion of those who select the players and coach them.

Those who are making the decisions about the teams need to consider whether or not those players will fit with their organization. It's their opinions that matter, because those running the teams are the ones who have to build around those players.

The general managers are the ones who sign the contracts, the coaching staff are the ones who work with the players, and both set the tone for how everyone approaches the season. If they do things well overall, they will win more often than not.

Therefore, when a general manager meets with scouts and coaches to determine how a draft board will take shape, the general manager takes all input before putting together that board. Once the board is set, the team needs to stick by its board and go with the players it believes are the right fit for the organization.

Sometimes this means passing on a prospect at one position because they have a player ranked higher on their final board at a different position, even if that position isn't a premium position. They can't second guess themselves once they've set their draft boards.

Will they always get it right? Of course not. But if they don't, the proper measure is to evaluate where they didn't get it right, then adjust the next time around, rather than dwelling on what they missed.

However, the one thing they must always do is settle on who are the players they believe best fit the organization and go from there. When they see a player they like at one position get selected, then chase after another player at that position when that player isn't ranked as high on the board, they have second guessed themselves and are more likely to fail.

It's a similar thing when you go looking for a house, you find one you like, but somebody else comes to a deal on the house, or you can't come to a deal you believe works. Your next step is to go to the next house on your list, not look for a house further down the list because you want a particular feature of the house you didn’t get.

This is why I don't blame teams when they pass on quarterbacks. It's true this QB class has been highly touted, but we are coming off an unusual college football season and it's not clear how good these QBs will be when they get to the pros.

I'm not entirely convinced that Zack Wilson is going to be a good QB. I believe Trey Lance needs a lot of time to get to where he needs to be, which means he needs to have a consistent coaching regime in place. I believe Justin Fields has a lot of talent, but needs to go to a team that keeps a consistent regime and builds well around him. And I believe Mac Jones was not worth a first-round pick.

Wilson went to the Jets, who I think had a pretty good draft overall and have generally been good in free agency. The question with Wilson is how he will develop in the years to come. I think it will help that the Jets are putting good pieces into place, which should at least keep them competitive, even if Wilson doesn't turn out to be the guy.

The only question I have with the Jets is whether ownership will be patient and, if they think a change needs to be made, they change both the general manager and the head coach at the same time, rather than removing one but not the other, only to find out the two don't get along.

Lance certainly will be under a good head coach, and I do believe the Niners will allow the current regime beyond 2021 to get back on track. However, I also believe that, if the Niners don't win in 2021, they will be told "win or else" in 2022. Therefore, the Niners regime needs to be patient this year with Lance to ensure long-term success. Also, they need to do better with building the team, because they can't afford to have too many misses in free agency or the draft if they want to ensure success.

Fields is going to a regime in which both the general manager and the head coach could have their jobs on the line. I'm not convinced the Bears have done the best job of building their team, either. If the Bears miss the playoffs and the regime is gone, what is that going to mean for Fields if the next regime decides he's not their guy?

As for Jones, I don't think the Patriots have done the best job of drafting players as of late. Their draft class overall looks pretty good, but I question why they spent so much in free agency and whether that's going to lead to success. It's not because the Patriots never spend big on a free agent (they have a couple of times in the past), but because the Patriots have been known to look for value. Is this shift in philosophy going to get them back to the playoffs, or did they panic?

With all that said, for each team in question, it was their decision to take the quarterback that matters the most. They are the ones that have to determine if the QB is right for them. I may hold a different opinion, but I'm not the one who is building the team.

The same holds true for teams who passed on a QB, whether that team has an aging QB (Falcons) or a QB who is average at best (Lions, Broncos). Those teams made the decisions they believed were best, and it's their opinions that matter the most, even if I hold a different opinion.

The key, as always, is how you continue to build the team overall. Those who build their teams well will find some success, even if they don't have an elite QB. Those who don't build them well might have one or two good years, but the rest will be lacking, and that failure to build the team well will have as much of an impact as what becomes of their quarterbacks.

In the end, though, it's the team's decision that matters the most. After all, the team is the one that has to figure out if the players are the right fit, because the team is the one that has to live with those players.