The Vikings and Their Kirk Cousins Problem
As the Vikings continue winning on the field in 2022, will the team keep letting their QB win the business side of football?
Going into the 2022 NFL season, how many people projected that the Minnesota Vikings were going to win the NFC North?
I didn't believe it would happen and I suspect a lot of analysts figured it would be another year with the Packers on top (though it's possible some thought the Packers would regress given the departure of Davante Adams). These same analysts may have thought the Vikings could finish second, given that the Bears are in a clear rebuild and that the Lions still didn't have their quarterback.
Instead, the Packers have not only regressed but might finish behind the Lions in the NFC North, even if the Lions don't finish above .500. And the Vikings not only have won the division, but on Saturday, they pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history, overcoming a 33-0 deficit early in the third quarter to beat the Colts 39-36 in overtime.
The Vikings are certainly a great story. They've found ways to win multiple close games. First-year head coach Kevin O'Connell is a Coach of the Year candidate. Justin Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, a favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year and might enter the MVP conversation. First-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will no doubt enter discussions for Executive of the Year awards.
But all this success comes with a question: How much longer will the Vikings keep moving forward with Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, particularly given how he's been able to leverage his situation to make it difficult for the Vikings to move on from him?
To be sure, Cousins isn't a bad quarterback. He's shown he can be successful given the right circumstances. Depending on how he's playing, he can be viewed as a Tier Two quarterback (good QB capable of great games) or as a Tier Three quarterback (average-to-good QB). Going back to the Colts game, there are those who will note how he rallied in the second half, but that came after a sloppy first half which featured Cousins in a moment that resembled Mark Sanchez.
However, since Cousins has signed with the Vikings, he's been able to get himself favorable deals, to the point that Andrew Brandt has put Cousins into his Pro Football Business Hall of Fame. Brandt gives this distinction to players who have been able to capitalize on the NFL players market to the point that they get contracts that many would argue pay them more than the players are actually worth.
We've seen how this has worked with how Cousins leveraged himself into a favorable position after playing two straight years on the franchise tag when he was with Washington. That team chose not to use the tag for a third year and Cousins got what surprised a lot of people (myself included): A three-year, fully guaranteed contract.
Cousins got $84M in that contract he signed in 2018. Then, in 2020, when the Vikings needed cap space, Cousins got an extension that lowered his 2020 cap number, but gave him an additional two years at $66M, with $61M fully guaranteed.
In Cousins' first four years with the Vikings, they went 33-31-1 with one playoff trip in 2019. Former general manager Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer were both fired in 2021.
The Vikings then hired Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell, who were tasked with taking a team that had some success under the previous regime, but were stuck in what some would call ".500 purgatory," in that the team could win enough games to give it playoff hopes, but lose enough to ensure they missed out in most seasons.
Adofo-Mensah had to sort out the team's cap situation and opted to give Cousins a one-year extension to lower his cap hit. In doing so, he gave Cousins an additional $35M in fully guaranteed salary. He has a $20M roster bonus and a $10M base salary due in 2023, all which fall under that $35M in full guarantees.
The Vikings would be able to let Cousins' contract run out after the 2023 season and find another quarterback if they wish. However, if they leave his contract alone, they will have to figure out other ways to address their cap situation.
The Vikings are projected to be $4.9M over the cap for 2023, assuming a base cap of $225M. That's with 44 players currently under contract -- once they get to 51 players, the Vikings are projected to be $12.4M over the cap.
Cousins carries a cap hit of $36.25M for 2023. Certainly the Vikings could lower his cap number to get themselves some space. However, given that Cousins has been able to get favorable deals that ensure he gets a lot of guaranteed money in future years and, thus, tie himself to the franchise for a longer period of time, is that really the right move to make?
The Vikings could always make other moves to get under the cap. If they opted to cut players, they could do that with Eric Kendricks ($9.15M savings), Dalvin Cook ($7.8M savings) and Jordan Hicks ($5M savings). That would allow the Vikings enough space to add other players to get the roster to 51, then focus on low-cost signings in free agency.
However, when a team wins a division title, some front offices may not want to move from players too quickly. That's especially true if that team has a deep playoff run. With the Vikings in position to claim the No. 2 seed, it wouldn't surprise if they manage to at least reach the NFC championship.
Regarding the players I've suggested cutting, we'll start with Kendricks, who has one year left on his deal and has played reasonably well. But he'll be 31 years old in 2023. Is he worth extending to lower his cap number?
Cook is due $10.4M in base salary with $2M becoming fully guaranteed on March 20, 2023. Cook is still a productive player, having surpassed 1,000 yards rushing for the fourth straight season. However, with running backs, there's always the question about when decline sets in, even if the player hasn't turned 30 years old.
Hicks got a two-year, $10M deal from the Vikings this past offseason and is performing well above that contract. He's probably not a player the Vikings should cut, particularly when he'll earn just $5M in 2023.
The Vikings could always extend or restructure players other than Cousins. I've already mentioned Hendricks, though the fact he'll be 31 next year puts that into question.
Harrison Smith has two years left on his deal, so a restructure with void years to lower his $19M cap hit might be considered. However, Smith's play hasn't been as good as in past years. Because he'll be 34 years old, it may not be worth doing a restructure that makes it harder to move on from him in future seasons.
Some might advocate for doing a post-June 1 cut with Smith. That would free up $15.3M, but there's a catch: If that's done in March, the Vikings would have to carry him at his full cap hit until June 1, when they'd realize the savings. To get immediate cap savings, they'd have to do a straight cut in March, which means just $7.4M freed.
Finally, there's the question about what the Vikings will do regarding a couple of players who are candidates for extensions. Danielle Hunter continues to play at a level that exceeds the money he's received. He's due just $5M in 2023 (though signing bonuses he previously received will put his cap number at $13.1M) and will likely want a big payday before it passes him by (he’ll turn 30 next season).
The problem is that an extension for Hunter wouldn't do that much to lower his cap number, given that so much of his cap hit comes from previous pro-rated bonuses. Trading him won't help the Vikings' cap situation, unless they do a trade after June 1. But while trading him after June 1, 2023, is an option, it's going to make some people wonder why, even if the Vikings draft a pass rusher in 2023.
And then there's Jefferson. Given his level of play and the fact that he'll be just 24 years old in 2023, it's clear the Vikings need to extend him. He'll be eligible for an extension in 2023, though the Vikings do have the fifth-year option that would ensure he stays with the team in 2024.
The fifth-year option in 2024 for Jefferson is projected to be $19.8M. An extension completed in 2024 would lower his cap number. However, if he pushes for an extension in 2023, it would not do much to lower his cap hit, which is just $4.175M next year.
And given the level of play Jefferson has demonstrated, it will come as no surprise if he becomes the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. Currently, Tyreek Hill tops the market at $30M in average-per-year salary and $52.35M fully guaranteed (he's second overall in total guarantees with $72.2M, while Cooper Kupp has the most total guarantees at $75M).
If the Vikings believe they need to get an extension done before the market goes any higher, that means getting a deal done in 2023. The contracts for Hill and Kupp have set the bar for Jefferson, who could demand at least $31M APY, $55 in full guarantees and $80M in total guarantees in a new contract.
All of these factors point to why the Vikings must be careful before looking at Cousins' contract as the way to solve their cap issues for 2023. Do that and not only are you giving more money to a Tier Two QB at best -- and one who will turn 35 next year -- you have less cash to commit to the likes of Hunter and Jefferson, the former who isn't going to take any more below-market deals and the latter who will look to re-set the market at his position.
I'm happy for Vikings fans that the Vikings are on their way to the playoffs with what will likely be their best overall record since 2017. However, that was when the Vikings had Case Keenum for the bulk of the season. And though the Vikings were correct to let Keenum depart, they've still committed a ton of cash to Cousins when some might say he's not worth the cash committed.
Thus, even as the Vikings celebrate their success in 2022, they have to ask themselves if it's worth sticking with Cousins for the foreseeable future. Giving him another extension to lower his cap number gives you short-term relief, but could put you into a position in which you have a declining QB that you still have to pay in 2024.