To Move Up or Move Down the Draft Board, That Is the Question
What does a summary of NFL draft day moves tell us about whether it's better to move up or down the board?
I mentioned last week that I would do some research about whether it's better to trade up or down in the NFL draft. What exactly did I find out?
The short answer is, in the sample I examined, trading up was the better option. But I would add that whether you think a trade worked out or not depends on what you think the team should get out of the pick in question.
Let's start with what I examined. I looked at trades in which teams moved up or down the board, in which the team moving up obtained at least one pick in return and the team moving down obtained at least two picks in return. I did not include trades in which the team moving down got a pick and a player, nor did I include trades in which the swap was "current year pick in exchange for future year pick."
There were some trades in which teams who moved up got more than one pick in the deal. This usually happens when teams are negotiating based on how picks fall in the draft order.
The time period I examined was from 2011 to 2020, or the first 10 years of the rookie pay scale. A 10-year period gave me a large enough sample size to examine.
Then I had to ask the question: What value did the team get from the player in question? I utilized Pro Football Reference "drafted approximate value" to determine what a team got.
The reason I did this is that, sometimes, teams who draft a player would later trade that player. In some cases, the player was a disappointment, but in other cases, the player lived up to expectations, but the team may have thought the player asked for too much in an extension.
I also took into account the round in question in which the player was drafted. First-round picks, for example, should deliver more in return than sixth-round picks, in which it's not unusual for such players to not make the roster.
I also didn't put more weight into a trade based on the number of picks involved, even as one could argue that the more you give up moving up the board, the more is expected from the player in question.
The thing is, if we give more weight to trades in which you give up more to move up, should we then not expect as much from the team who moved down because that team got more picks in return? I would imagine most people would want a team that gets a lot in return for moving down to get some value out of what the team acquired.
Now, let's go over what I found from the drafts from 2011 to 2020. I won't go over every single move up and down the board but will go over the more notable trades.
In the 10-year period in question, there were 264 draft pick swaps, in which the team moving up got at least one pick in the deal and the team moving down got at least two picks.
Of those draft moves, I had 64 that worked out, to some degree, for the team moving up in terms of the player acquired, while I had 47 that worked out, to some degree, for the team moving down (again, in terms of a player acquired). Based on this simple math, trading up is actually the better option.
However, there is one important note to my tally of moves down that worked out — in some of these cases, the teams traded away picks they obtained. Sometimes they moved up and sometimes they moved down.
Regarding trades in which a team moved down, then used at least one acquired pick in a later move up or down the board, there were 106 instances in which a team who moved down the board later traded away acquired picks. Sometimes they kept a pick acquired and traded the other, but in other cases, all picks were traded. And in such trades, those teams either moved up or down.
In other words, there's a lot more to unpack about making moves up and down the board to figure out which trades really paid off. Therefore, one shouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion that moving up is better than moving down.
For the record, I don't judge whether trading up or down was better based on which team "won" the pick exchange. In a few cases, the team that moved up and the team that moved down drafted a quality player. There are instances in which a team may have clearly "won" because that player made a bigger impact, but that doesn't mean the other team "lost" if they still drafted a quality player.
Obviously, a deeper dive into the final outcome of every trade would be necessary to determine what statistics actually say about trading up or down the draft board. One would also need to include the 2021 draft (in which we have enough information to say which drafted players have lived up to expectations) and some might be ready to include the 2022 draft (though, in a few cases, we won't know more until after the 2024 season is finished).
But I will say that the short answer of "better to trade up than down" isn't necessarily the case. However, that doesn't mean that the opposite will be true.
Instead, it may be better to think about moving up or down the board based on your team's situation. Consider the following:
If you have a lot of draft picks going into a draft, a trade up the board might be worth pursuing. This is particularly true if you already have a quarterback you can build around and have other key positions set (at least two of pass rusher, offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback).
On the other hand, if your draft capital is limited, you may be better off trading down so you can fill more holes. Again, if you have a QB you can build around and are in good shape at other key positions, it may not be as urgent to acquire more picks.
There is, of course, the question about when you don't have the quarterback to build around. In such cases, trading up to get a QB gets talked up a lot. I will add, though, that it should be for a QB you love, not just for the sake of taking a QB.
What about other positions? If you have the QB you can build around, the other premium positions (pass rusher, offensive tackle, wide receiver, cornerback) are ones that could justify a move up the board. Other positions, though, could depend on the round. For example, while it may be hard to justify moving up for a tight end in the earlier rounds, a move up in the later rounds may be defensible.
There will always be a tendency to judge trades based on what a team gives up in order to move up the board. However, one should still keep in mind the round in question in which the player is drafted. A first-round pick, for example, needs to be a quality starter ASAP. But it's not unusual for third-round picks to take a year or two to develop.
Next time, I'll go over the more notable draft day moves, whether it was the team moving up, the team moving down or both teams who found a player that worked out for them.