We Don't Need Another Regime-Change War
The United States is going down that same path again. It needs to stop.
I was sick last week and didn't get to write an original piece, but I do hope people have enjoyed the Arrowverse Elseworld installments thus far (and I’ll be putting another one up soon).
Also, I have been trying to think about what to write regarding the latest developments in the Middle East. I'm not the most knowledgeable about the events that are happening there, though from reading those who have followed things closely (and aren't simply lapping up the talking points), I am convinced that we're about to start a regime war in Iran and I don't like that one bit.
The problem I see is that President Trump believes that he can get Iran to agree to the most severe restrictions on their uranium enrichment, to the point that Iran has declared such requests to be a non-starter. Additionally, there is evidence that Benjamin Netanyahu is losing support from the Israeli people, to the point that he started another war to ensure he doesn't lose his office.
While I am no fan of the Iranian regime and would never want to live under it, I can't blame the regime for refusing to give in on every point. Iran has witnessed what happened in Libya, in which Muammar Gaddafi was considered to be a threat and was ultimately ousted and killed (though the reasons weren’t simply because he was a military threat). Like Iran's regime, Gaddafi's regime is not one I would want to live under, but that doesn't make him an imperialist or a threat to military power.
And the reality behind what happened to Gaddafi and Libya is that the United States got involved and, after doing so, left a mess behind. And back then, it was Barack Obama who was in The White House while Republican leadership cried foul. Fast forward to today, and it's Trump in The White House while Democrat leadership (who was silent under Obama) cries foul and Republican leadership is cheerleading.
There are those who have been consistent on the "don't get involved in the Middle East any longer" stance, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie for the Republicans and Ro Khanna for the Democrats. But the reality is we are still seeing foreign policy pushed by the usual neocon and neoliberal types.
Getting back to Iran for a minute, it's easy to go in and side against a brutal dictator, but often, conflicts develop because people only know about certain events or perspectives but don't ask themselves the question about other events or perspectives. Let's consider a simple test that has nothing to do with politics or foreign policy but will tell you a lot about perspective.
It's called the Sally-Anne task and it goes like this: There are two girls in front of you, one named Sally who has a basket and one named Anne who has a box. Anne and Sally are playing with a marble, which Sally takes and places in her basket. Sally then leaves the room.
Anne then decides she wants to play with the marble again, but after doing so, she puts the marble into the box. Sally then returns to the room. Where will Sally look for the marble?
If you answer the question correctly, you have a basic understanding about perspective. In this task, you have information known to you, but not all of it is known to Sally. The lesson: If somebody doesn't know all the details, it's not as easy to judge their actions as one may think.
How does this apply to what is happening in the Middle East? It's because there are events that people in the United States may not be aware of as they pertain to Iran or Israel. Getting back to Netanyahu, the Israeli governing body was just a few votes shy of dissolving Parliament and forcing elections, at a time when support for Netanyahu among Israeli citizens is declining.
And switching over to Iran, the nation had already agreed to a deal in which its uranium enrichment would be limited, to the point that it would have its uranium processed in France so Iran could fuel its nuclear power plant (and, thus, have no access to any plutonium). That deal, which happened under the Obama administration, came to an end after Trump wanted out of the deal during his first term.
All signs point to Trump wanting Iran to give up its uranium to the control of another nation (reportedly Saudi Arabia). I may not know everything there is to know about the negotiations, but I would find that point to be a non-starter for Iran.
Furthermore, if Iran were to get a nuclear weapon, that does not mean Iran is immediately going to start firing away. North Korea has had nukes for decades and their leaders have, at times, talked about sending a nuke toward the United States. But that has never happened — and the talk was happening long before Trump got elected to his first term.
Why do you suppose that was? A possible answer is that North Korea wasn't concerned about attacking the United States but about telling the United States to stay out of North Korean affairs. Again, I would not want to live under North Korea's regime, but that doesn't mean I want regime change at the United States' hands, regardless of how it's done.
If Trump truly wants that as a condition of any agreement, my belief is that he will have no choice but to do a regime-change war — and that's something a lot of his supporters don't want.
Tucker Carlson has taken the position that, if Israel wants to go to war with Iran, that's Israel's decision, but the United States needs to stay out. He's been consistent with the position that the United States should not be involved in foreign wars (a position that led to him parting ways with Fox News). There are plenty of Trump supporters — the majority of them younger people — who want nothing to do with these wars in the Middle East and they are more likely to take Carlson's side on this issue.
And it's the younger voters who could be the ones who tip the scales in a way that may not help Trump — not because they will suddenly vote Democrat, but because they will become disillusioned and turn into non-voters. If that were to happen, that might tip the scales against Trump and the Republicans as the "we gotta stop Trump no matter what" crew gets its voters out and shifts the tide.
Perhaps I'm wrong about that. Still, I don't think regime-change war is the answer and it's more likely to backfire on the United States and Israel alike. I already watched people celebrate the regime change in Syria but I have my doubts that Syria's current leader has truly renounced his ties with ISIS (which rose to prominence thanks to the Iraq war) and Al-Qaeda.
And for those who have said the United States isn't going to get involved, the instant they started defending Israel was the instant the United States got involved. And after the latest strikes, the United States is clearly involved now.
But as far as the relations between Israel and Iran are concerned, it's up to those two countries to figure it out. If they go to war, so be it. The only thing I want is for the United States to stay out it with only one exception: That the United States could negotiate a ceasefire or treaty if that is what Israel and Iran decide they want.
Otherwise, it's time for the United States to stay out of this. The establishment has gotten its way almost every time when it comes to foreign policy but the moment is past due for the establishment to be told we're done with interventionism — and if Trump won't do it, then we need somebody else to take the lead when it’s time to elect a new President.
(On another note, if you want to know more about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — which is certainly relevant both to the war between Israel and Iran and what is currently happening in Gaza — I strongly recommend Darryl Cooper’s Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem podcast series.)