What Happens If the Falcons Move On From Cousins?
It's going to be painful if the Falcons decide to move on from the QB they signed during the 2024 offseason.
Last week, I wrote about the worst value free agent signings of 2024, but I had one player I thought about adding to the list but didn't: Kirk Cousins.
Admittedly, I looked at the fact that most of the quarterbacks under veteran contracts (as opposed to recently drafted QBs still on their rookie deals) don't always measure up to the deals they signed. Furthermore, Cousins hasn't been bad throughout the entire season.
But the bigger issue with Cousins is this: He was given a two-year commitment from a team that probably shouldn't have done that, particularly after making another decision.
Let's first start with the fact that the Falcons signed Cousins in free agency to a "two years then we'll see" contract while using a first-round pick on Michael Penix Jr.
I do not have an issue with a team signing a veteran quarterback, then drafting one the same year. The issue with the Falcons was this: They gave Cousins a two-year commitment after they had reportedly fell in love with Penix before free agency got underway.
With Penix, the reports I read suggested the Falcons front office and coaching staff wanted him to be their guy after the combine. But they still went out and committed money to Cousins over a two-year period.
This isn't like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, in every sense. For one thing, Love was younger than Penix when he was drafted. Second, and more importantly, the Packers already had Rodgers under contract. Third, the Packers knew what they had in Rodgers at the time but didn't know how much longer he would play at that level.
Cousins wasn't under contract with the Falcons when they scouted Penix and reportedly saw him as their guy. Furthermore, Cousins was coming off a torn Achilles and it was anyone's guess if he could come back.
As for Cousins and his play this season, he's thrown 17 touchdowns with 15 interceptions through 13 games. But some context is needed here. Through the first seven games, Cousins threw 10 touchdown passes with seven interceptions. He then had a two-game stretch in which he threw seven touchdowns with no interceptions. But the past four games, he's thrown eight interceptions with no touchdown passes.
In other words, Cousins started off as an average-to-good passer, but then had back-to-back outings in which he looked really good, with one of them being a win over the Buccaneers that ensured the Falcons of the tiebreaker for the NFC South, only to look terrible the last four weeks.
If Cousins continues to play poorly, the Falcons won't have much choice but to move on in 2025. He will have no trade value at this point and the only other ways to get out of the deal in 2025 are either for Cousins to retire or to use the post-June 1 designation to cut him before March 17, to ensure his $10M roster bonus doesn't become guaranteed.
And if he's cut, the Falcons are still on the hook for $27.5M. There may be offset clauses, but other teams will treat him the same as when the Broncos cut Russell Wilson and just sign Cousins to the veteran minimum.
The Falcons won't get any cap relief from using the post-June 1 designation and will have to carry Cousins' cap charge until June 1. And that doesn't help matters when the Falcons are projected to be tight against the cap next year — and that's without 51 players under contract.
For 2025, the Falcons are projected to be $6.5M under the cap (assuming a base cap of $272.5M) but that's with 36 players under contract. Once the Falcons get to 51 players, they'll be over the cap.
On top of that, the Falcons have just five total picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Between that, the cap situation and the cash they'll have to commit to Cousins unless he retires, it's going to be difficult to take advantage of the cheap draft pick contract that Penix has.
And given that the Falcons defense has a lot of holes to fill, they could really use more cap space and draft capital. Their best defensive players are AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates III. And while Grady Jarrett hasn't been bad, he's not at the same level he was a few years ago.
The first step for the Falcons to take this offseason is to recognize that they aren't just a few players away from a deep playoff run. While I don't believe they have to tear it all down, they do need to make some decisions on which players are part of the long-term picture.
Let's go over a few things the Falcons need to consider.
Cut IDL David Onyemata: He will be 33 years old and is due a $10M base salary. The Falcons need to get younger at the position. Cutting him saves a little more than $8M in cap space. I would do a straight cut because the Falcons need immediate cap relief.
Restructure the contract of CB AJ Terrell: This is the only contract I would feel comfortable restructuring. Terrell was extended prior to the start of the 2024 season and continues to play well. This is another move that would give the Falcons immediate cap relief.
Trade TE Kyle Pitts: The No. 4 overall pick in 2021 has proven to be a good player but not an elite one. I imagine Falcons fans wouldn't want the team trading away an offensive playmaker who could help Penix, but the Falcons do have Drake London and Bijan Robinson, plus Darnell Mooney has proven to be a quality No. 2 receiver in the offense. The Falcons need more draft capital and Pitts may be their best bet to get more. I'd seek at least a fourth-round pick for him. Trading him would free $10.8M in cap space.
Figure out what to do with IDL Grady Jarrett: While I wouldn't recommend cutting Jarrett, the Falcons have to figure out if it's better to trade him while they still can or just let him play out the final year of his contract. I wouldn't extend him because he's not playing at an elite level, but I would understand keeping him for 2025. If he was traded, the Falcons would free $16.25M in cap space.
Figure out what to do with OT Kaleb McGary: The Falcons have McGary on a reasonable contract for his position but 2025 is the final year of that contract. I wouldn't be opposed to the Falcons extending him for a couple more seasons. They should be able to do this without having to pay McGary a significant amount. An extension would lower McGary's cap number.
From there, the Falcons need to focus more on defense in free agency and the draft, though if they trade Pitts, they should look for a tight end in the draft. They might want to consider trading down in the first round if at all possible. Once the draft is over, they can then figure out what London is worth in an extension.
The one thing the Falcons shouldn't do is talk themselves into the idea that, if they don't win the division this season, they can reclaim it by doing a lot of restructures and adding more players in free agency. They need to approach 2025 as a soft rebuild while figuring out if Penix is the QB to build around.