What Might Happen With A Tua Tagovailoa Extension
The Miami Dolphins quarterback is off to a strong start and could join other 2020 QB draftees in getting a big contract.
The NFL quarterback class of 2020 has become the best QB draft class in recent years, with four of the quarterbacks taken early playing at a high level thus far.
Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert both established themselves by their second season in the NFL while Jalen Hurts established himself by his third. All three have recently received massive extensions that should keep them with their teams for the foreseeable future.
The fourth quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has his best season as a pro in 2022 but missed a couple of games because of injuries. Unlike Hurts, the Dolphins had a fifth-year option they could pick up on his draft pick contract, thus giving them more time to decide whether or not to extend him.
Three games into the season, Tagovailoa is off to a hot start. He's on pace for 5,803 yards with 45 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. Of course, some of those numbers are skewed because of the 70-point blowout against the Broncos in Week 3. Still, at the rate he's going, Tagovailoa is going to be in line for a large extension.
While the Dolphins are projected to be above the cap in 2024 (Over the Cap has Miami at $22.69M above the cap, assuming a base cap of $256M), an extension would lower Tagovailoa's cap hit. He's due nearly $23.2M in fully guaranteed money from the fifth-year option of his rookie deal.
To get an idea about what an extension would like for Tagovailoa, one can compare the contracts that Hurts, Herbert, Burrow and Lamar Jackson received.
While comparing the average per year salary is one metric, it's not the only one and, truth be told, not the best metric. Examining full guarantees, total guarantees, new money and cash flow are better measures to determine how good a contract really is.
Jackson, by far, got the best deal in terms of new money. His rookie deal, including the fifth-year option, expired and he didn't sign a new contract until several months after the Ravens placed the franchise tag on him. Though Jackson didn't get a deal like DeShaun Watson got, his $135M in full guarantees is all new money, whereas with the other three, they all signed their extensions before their rookie deals expired.
Hurts had one year left on his deal, with escalators set to kick in, before he agreed to his extension that paid him $110M in full guarantees. Herbert had two years left on his deal, which included an exercised fifth-year option for $29.5M, before he agreed to a contract that gave him $133.7M in full guarantees.
As for Burrow, he re-set the market for full guarantees at $146.5M but he still had two years left on his deal, which included the fifth-year option of $29.5M. Jackson thus beat him out in terms of new money.
If Tagovailoa agrees to an extension after the 2023 season, any full guarantees are going to include the $23.2M that he's due in 2024. If he really wants to beat out Jackson on full guarantees, he's going to need to more than exceed $135M for the total sum. To do that, Tagovailoa will need to push for more than $159M in full guarantees.
It's hard to see the Dolphins going that high on the full guarantees. They may try to come in closer to the $147M mark, which means Tagovailoa's new money in full guarantees would amount to $124M. If Tagovailoa wants to truly beat out Jackson, he would want to play out 2024 under the fifth-year option.
Given that Tagovailoa is playing well, it could be to his advantage to play out that scenario. However, given that he missed three games because of injury in 2022, there's always the risk he could miss time again. Of course, Jackson also missed time because of injuries, but while he was out, his absence was clearly felt.
If the Dolphins took a similar drop in performance should Tagovailoa miss games again, that would strengthen Tagovailoa's case to get a long-term deal. There is, of course, the fact that Lamar Jackson has an MVP award to his name. At the rate things are going for Tagovailoa, though, he could be an MVP candidate this season.
Getting back to a potential contract, Burrow did receive $219M in total guarantees, the most of any quarterback other than DeShaun Watson. Burrow's contract structure assures he'll likely be with the Bengals through 2026, unless the team decided to use a post-June 1 cut in 2025 before his 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed.
I could certainly see Tagovailoa exceeding the total guarantees Burrow received should Tagovailoa put up an MVP-caliber season. The same would apply if the Dolphins manage a deep playoff run.
The only thing that might temper what Tagovailoa gets in an extension is that it took him a bit longer to settle into his starting role than Burrow and Herbert did. Some might argue it's one thing for Hurts, a second-round pick who sat behind Carson Wentz as a rookie, to take time to get there, but a first-round pick should break out sooner.
This newsletter is going out before the Dolphins-Bills game in Week Four, in which we are likely to find out more about how good Tagovailoa really is. A strong Week Four performance will help his cause to join his fellow Class of 2020 QB draftees in getting a massive extension.
The question thus simply comes down to how soon the Dolphins will want to get a deal done and how much Tagovailoa is willing to risk in taking the approach Jackson took. While Jackson didn't get the Watson contract, he still made out well for himself when it came to new money even given his injury history.
There is some risk to the strategy Jackson employed, but it worked out well for him. If Tagovailoa does put together an MVP-caliber season this year, he might be able to make that same strategy work.