What Price for A Veteran Quarterback?
Fans love to speculate about trading for a top veteran QB, but the cost involved may be more than what they realize.
When you are a building an NFL team, there is no position that's more important than the quarterback.
So, whenever there is talk about a quarterback who is unhappy, or struggling, or may not be with a team much longer, there's always going to be the talk about whether or not a team should trade for that quarterback.
In some cases, the talk is hotter than others. With reports that DeShaun Watson is unhappy with the Houston Texans, there are countless fans who flood social media, hoping that their team will be the lucky one to get one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.
In other cases, it's the belief that the team will have to send a draft pick along with the quarterback just to be rid of him — that talk definitely surrounds Carson Wentz.
Still, in others, there's rumblings that a team will want to draft a quarterback early, and thus may be prepared to part ways with the veteran they have, even if the veteran can still play. In Broncos fan circles, Matthew Stafford gets discussed a lot.
And while there hasn’t been big headlines about Matt Ryan being traded, the talk is already out there, no doubt because the Falcons draft fourth overall in 2021 and might take a quarterback.
The questions to ask when any quarterback is traded is this: How well does it help the team dealing the quarterback, how well it will help the team acquiring him, and how do those factors lead to the price you have to pay?
To understand what's at stake here when acquiring a big-name veteran quarterback, let's look at each of the four quarterbacks I've mentioned, regardless of the likelihood of them being traded.
DeShaun Watson
It's highly unlikely the Texans will entertain trading Watson -- though it's true you can't rule it out, especially if reports keep coming that Watson isn't happy.
Setting those reports aside, if the Texans were to trade Watson, they wouldn't get any salary cap relief. They would lose $5.6M in cap space, in a year in which they are projected to be $17.8M over the cap.
The current projections reflect the expected base cap of $176M for 2021 -- though if it comes in higher than that, it will help with the Texans' cap space. Still, losing cap space, particularly when the Texans don't have a 2021 draft pick until the third round, isn't a good situation.
Meanwhile, for a team who trades for Watson, they would take on his $10.5M base salary in 2021, but then owe him $35M in base salary in 2022. A restructure, by converting base salary into a signing bonus, would lower his cap number in 2022, though.
But because the Texans would lose cap space, and are in need of draft capital, they would demand a lot of draft capital in return, especially when they are trading a player who is arguably top five at his position.
If I were the Texans, I would demand no less than four first-round picks, three second-round picks, a quarterback and at least a couple more picks. That's a high price for any team to pay to acquire him, even if Watson is a top-five QB.
A team like the Miami Dolphins would be in position to acquire Watson, because they have two firsts and two seconds in 2021, plus Tua Tagovailoa, who is on a cheap draft pick contract., relative to what veteran QBs get. And because the Dolphins have stockpiled the roster with young talent, they are in a position to get a QB like Watson.
Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap remarked that it would look bad for the Texans to trade Watson to the Dolphins after giving the Dolphins so much for Laremy Tunsil. However, the chance to get high picks, plus a potential franchise QB, might be enough to get the Texans to consider it.
Still, I seriously doubt the Texans trade him, and to be honest, I wouldn't trade him. But if the Texans ever gave it any thought, they are clearly in position to demand a high price from any team who wants him. And if teams who want him aren't careful, they could give up so much that they suddenly aren't in a position to build around him.
Matthew Stafford
The Detroit Lions have the seventh overall pick and just five picks in the 2021 NFL Draft. They are likely entering a rebuild and, thus, it could be tempting for them to deal Stafford.
For any team acquiring Stafford, they would get him at a base salary of $9.5M for 2021, then a base salary of $12.5M in 2022. He has a void year in 2023 for salary cap purposes, which wouldn't affect the team acquiring him. That makes it a good deal for any team who acquires him.
For the Lions, it does help their cap situation to an extent. They are projected to have $11.6M in cap space in 2021 and would gain $14M of space by dealing Stafford, though it comes with a $19M dead money charge.
However, the problem for the Lions is that they would be left with Chase Daniel as their top QB and no guarantees that a quarterback will be there at the seventh overall pick.
The truth is, Stafford represents the ideal "bridge QB," meaning he is the perfect veteran to have to take the starting job, while a quarterback you draft can sit on the bench and develop, until Stafford's play declines and you have to start the draft pick, or the 2021 season ends and, then, you can consider trading Stafford.
That means, if the Lions were to trade Stafford now, they are in position to demand a high draft pick, possibly an additional draft pick, and likely a quarterback who could compete for the starting job, in case they don't get a QB in the 2021 draft.
For a team who acquires Stafford, they are placing their bets on a player who has had some injury concerns in recent years, that he can be the player who can stay healthy and get a team to the playoffs, or ensure a playoff contender stays that way.
But given the risk involved for the Lions, the price could get too high. Given the circumstances, I'm unconvinced the Lions will trade Stafford.
Carson Wentz
The sudden decline of Wentz, to the point that he has to be replaced, is one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 season. After all, Wentz was a potential MVP candidate in his second season in the NFL, before an injury ended his season.
Though Wentz's health has been in question, he still showed enough signs that the Eagles were convinced to give him a four-year, $128M extension in 2019.
Then the rapid decline happened in 2020 and, now, it looks like a bad deal for the Eagles.
It's easy to think that Wentz is the type of quarterback that would force the Eagles to include a high draft pick just to move him, like the Texans including a second-round pick to move Brock Osweiler. But there's an important difference between Wentz and Osweiler.
With Osweiler, the Texans signed him based on a small sample size in which Osweiler looked average at best. With Wentz, the Eagles extended him based on multiple seasons in which he at least looked like a good QB who could have great games.
For the Texans, it was about buyer's remorse and a salary dump. For the Eagles, it would be about a player they really liked, but now doesn't appear to be the answer, with a player on the roster, Jalen Hurts, looking like he might be.
The Eagles wouldn't gain much in cap space by trading Wentz — they get just $852,000 in space. On the other hand, the Eagles are projected to be $70.2M over the cap, so they need to make all the moves they can to gain space.
A team acquiring Wentz would have to take on $25.4M in salary in 2021 and $22M in 2022, but that salary goes into the ballpark of what Teddy Bridgewater got from the Panthers. While Wentz wouldn't be cheap, he would fall in line with what an average QB gets, and there's always a chance he could get his play back up to average.
Of course, that doesn't mean you give up a high draft pick for Wentz — but it doesn't mean the Eagles have to include a high pick, either. A team acquiring Wentz could minimize its risk by sending just a 2021 fifth-round pick to the Eagles, perhaps including a 2022 sixth rounder, with the Eagles sending back a fifth. Giving up one Day Three pick, and getting to move up a round on Day Three in 2022, might be worth the risk.
Whether or not such a trade happens remains to be seen. I think there's a better chance of Wentz being traded than some may think, and it's more likely he's traded than Watson or Stafford.
The Colts have been pegged as the best fit for Wentz, but that all depends on what Phillip Rivers decides to do. If Rivers wants to play another year, he's likely returning to the Colts — and that might mean it's less likely the Eagles are able to deal Wentz.
Matt Ryan
Again, there's been little talk about the Falcons trading Ryan, who continues to play well, despite a team that has struggled overall.
However, the Falcons find themselves entering a rebuild. They are projected to be $24.3M over the cap for 2021. They have the fourth overall pick in the draft, meaning there's a good chance they will draft a QB early.
That would appear to be the recipe for trading Ryan. However, that's not necessarily going to be the case.
First, the Falcons would lose $3.5M in cap space by doing so. With Matt Schaub's retirement, they would need a veteran on hand to be the backup, and that would require more cap maneuvering to ensure they have the space for one.
Second, because Ryan will be 36 years old, the teams who would benefit the most by acquiring him are those who are likely playoff contenders in 2021. There will be a couple of teams who made the playoffs this year, who will be in need of a quarterback in 2021, should their current starters retire or otherwise depart.
But a team would need to have a lot of cap space available, because Ryan is due a $23M base salary in 2021. A couple of those teams who made the playoffs and might need QBs next year, such as the Saints, Steelers and Bears, are going to have cap issues to address and, thus, might not be in position to trade for Ryan.
The Colts could be an option if Rivers retires, and Ryan would be a better option than Wentz. However, the Falcons won’t trade Ryan for a fifth-round pick — the cost would be higher, perhaps as high as that for Stafford. Is that worth doing for a 36-year-old QB?
That's why the Falcons will most likely keep Ryan for the time being, but they can always consider trading him in 2022, should they draft a quarterback early in the 2021 draft. If Ryan continues to play well, there should be suitors in 2022.
The Falcons will have some tough decisions to make this offseason, but keeping Ryan should be an easy decision, unless a team comes along with an offer that blows away the Falcons -- and I'm not convinced such an offer will come along.