What Should the Bears Do at Quarterback?
Let's examine both cases: Keep Justin Fields or draft another QB
The Chicago Bears will have the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft for the second straight year, even as they have obtained that pick through different means.
In 2022, the Bears finished 3-14 overall and number one in the 2023 draft order. They opted to trade the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Carolina Panthers, obtaining the Panthers' 2024 first-round pick in the process.
This season, the Panthers were 2-14 going into the final week of the season while every other team will finish with at least four wins. As a result, the Panthers finished number on the 2024 draft order, but the pick will go to the Bears.
Meanwhile, the Bears traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Justin Fields in the first round. Fields was considered the best quarterback prospect behind Trevor Lawrence but slid down the board.
Since that time, the Bears have changed their general manager and head coach. Ryan Poles has finished his second season as general manager and Matt Eberflus his second year as head coach. The Bears were 7-9 overall going into the final week of the season.
There are those who still think that Fields could become the quarterback the Bears could build around. The current Bears regime has already given Fields two seasons, in addition to the one season he got under former general manager Ryan Pace and former head coach Matt Nagy.
However, with the Bears having the No. 1 overall pick in the draft again, and multiple quarterback prospects considered worth taking in the first round, there are those who believe that it's time for the Bears to draft another quarterback and trade Fields.
I'm going to outline the case for keeping Fields and trading the No. 1 overall pick, along with the case for trading Fields and using the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback. From there, I'll consider what really is the best thing for the Bears to do.
The Case for the Bears Keeping Justin Fields and Trading the No. 1 Overall Pick
While it's true that Fields' career hasn't been great overall, he's shown some improvement. In 2021, he threw seven touchdown passes with 10 interceptions in 12 games (10 starts). In 2022, he threw 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 15 starts. In 2023, he has thrown 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 12 starts.
Fields did miss some time this season because of injuries, but it's possible that he would have finished with better numbers had he not missed those four games. His replacement, Tyler Bagent, wasn't as good, having thrown three touchdowns with six interceptions in four starts.
There's also the rushing touchdowns to consider. Fields has 14 rushing touchdowns in his career, including eight such scores in 2022, a season in which he rushed for 1,143 yards.
Then there's the Bears' 2023 overall season and draft position. It's true the Bears have the No. 1 overall pick but that's only because they obtained the pick in a trade and that team happened to finish in that spot. Where the Bears actually draft is likely to be no higher than the 10th overall pick.
A team should evaluate its decision on drafting a quarterback based on how the team fared overall, not based on whether or not they had acquired a pick from another team that had a bad season.
Besides, if you look at the Bears' current draft capital, they have just six total picks. They sent a 2024 second-round pick to acquire Montez Sweat, and while Sweat has played well, the Bears need more talent.
And while the Bears have an initial projection of $61.5M in cap space for 2024, that space will be reduced once they get 51 players under contract. More importantly, it's better to build a team through the draft than free agency, so the Bears would benefit from acquiring more draft capital.
As far as talent goes, the Bears still don't have all the pieces in place. They still lack enough quality players on the offensive line and they need another wide receiver to pair with DJ Jones. Better to use draft capital on those positions than on another quarterback.
When it comes to Fields, he has the fifth-year option in his first-round pick contract. It's estimated to be about $22M, which is a pretty good deal for a starting quarterback. If the Bears pick up that option, they will commit a little more than $25M to Fields over two years. That comes to $12.5M per year and that's a good deal for a starting QB.
Then there's the coaching staff. It's not clear, as of this writing, if the staff will be retained. If they are, it makes more sense to keep Fields than chase after another QB. After all, if the staff is brought back, they will likely be expected to produce a winning season in 2024.
Fields' development was arguably harmed by changing coaching staffs after his first season with the team. If the Bears trade Fields, then draft another QB, but don't get a winning record and change the coaching staff, you will have another QB whose development has been harmed.
And there is no guarantee that a drafted quarterback will do any better than Fields. Last offseason, there was the debate between which QB was worth the No. 1 overall pick. Bryce Young was the QB taken No. 1 overall and he has struggled.
You have yet another debate about which QB should go No. 1 overall. Do you really want to chance that you take the guy who turns into Bryce Young?
The Case for the Bears Trading Justin Fields and Using the No. 1 Overall Pick on A Quarterback
Those who cite statistics to support Fields' improved play need to look at advanced metrics for Fields. Per Aaron Schatz, Fields will have negative DYAR (Defensive-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) for the third straight season. Here is a link to Schatz’s tweet that looks at some notable QBs who had negative DYAR in their first three seasons.
Consider Sam Darnold, the most recent example of a QB who did not play well overall in his first three seasons and never got on track and ask yourself why you believe things would be different with Fields.
It's true that Fields generates rushing touchdowns, too, but this season, he had four such TDs along with 630 yards rushing. Additionally, while it's true Bagent struggled, the Bears still went 2-2 in the games in which he started. That includes a 30-12 win over the Raiders in which the Bears rushed for 173 yards and, while the defense forced three turnovers, the Bears only got good field position off one of them. On other scoring drives, the Bears had to drive from within their own territory.
As far as the claim about lack of talent goes, the Bears have made every effort to acquire talent. Not everything has worked out (see the Chase Claypool trade as an example) but others have worked well.
Moore, for example, has proven himself to be the clear No. 1 receiver the Bears needed. They spent a first-round pick on offensive tackle Darnell Wright, who has been solid in his rookie season. Cole Kmet has shown himself to be a quality tight end.
And as for the offensive line as a whole, while a couple individuals have struggled, the line as a whole hasn't been that bad. Furthermore, several players have missed time with injuries, and one thing that helps with offensive line play is continuity from game to game.
It won’t be that difficult to add interior offensive linemen to improve the line’s play, which will be an important step to improving the line. As for another offensive tackle, it’s possible to get yet another one in the draft (and we’ll get to the point about acquiring more draft capital).
Regarding how the Bears got the No. 1 overall pick, why does that matter? The point is you have the top overall pick and there are two quarterbacks, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, who are thought to be worth the No. 1 overall pick.
If this was a draft in which there wasn't a QB thought worth taking with a first-round pick, it would make sense to keep Fields for another year. But when you have two strong prospects and a third on the rise (Jaylen Daniels), it's harder to argue against taking the QB.
As for draft capital, the Bears can always acquire more. For starters, there’s the draft capital the Bears might obtain for Fields. Also, it’s possible for the Bears to trade down from their own first-round pick, regardless of where it falls. Other teams are likely to want to move up the draft board, which allows the Bears to get additional picks that way.
Regarding free agency, while the Bears don't want to spend too much there, they could still find quality players at the right price. They will need to commit money to Jaylon Johnson, assuming they want to keep him. But it's not like they would be forced to go to free agency to acquire talent. Even if the Bears take a QB at No. 1 overall, they still have opportunities to trade down at their next first-round spot.
While the fifth-year option isn't costly compared to other QBs, it's costly in other ways. That money is fully guaranteed and, if it's exercised and Fields doesn't come through in 2024, the Bears are stuck with the bill in 2025. His trade value will be lower, too.
And while the current coaching staff does have room for improvement, this staff wasn't around when Fields was drafted. Neither is current GM Ryan Poles. They have given Fields his opportunity, but they aren't going to keep doing that, especially if they see another QB they like.
It may be time for Fields' supporters to acknowledge that his failure to improve as much as he should has as much to do with him as anything else. Lamar Jackson improved from his rookie season to year two, to the point he won MVP. While Jackson regressed in year three, he returned to form in year four. Josh Allen showed some improvement in year two, then broke out in year three. We're still waiting for Fields to break out after three seasons.
As for the Bryce Young comment, CJ Stroud is right there. Just because the guy that went No. 1 overall had struggled in his rookie season and the one who went No. 2 overall has excelled doesn't mean that scenario is fated to repeat itself in 2024.
The reality is, if you have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and you have a strong overall group of QB prospects, with more than one who are thought to be worth the No. 1 overall pick, it's a good time to take the QB.
So What Should The Bears Do?
I believe there are good points to consider by both camps. But the bottom line is this: The Bears should be asking themselves one question before all others.
Who is your guy?
If the Bears truly believe that Fields is their guy, they should forget any arguments for drafting a QB and trade the No. 1 overall pick. If, on the other hand, the Bears believe that somebody like Williams or Maye is their guy, they should forget any arguments for keeping Fields, trade him and use the No. 1 overall pick on the QB they love.
Determining who your guy is can sometimes be difficult and there's no guarantee you'll get it right. But you have a better chance of success if you answer the question about who is your guy than on simply making guesses based on theories out there, even if those theories hold merit.
In short, the Bears need to go with whoever is their guy and let the chips fall where they may.