What Young QBs Could Surpass Josh Allen's Contract?
After the Bills quarterback set new marks for guaranteed money, the question is whether other young QBs will surpass those marks.
Last week, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen signed a six-year contract that gave him the most full guarantees, and total guarantees, of any quarterback in NFL history.
Two more quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, are eligible for extensions. A third quarterback, Kyler Murray, won't be eligible until next year, while it's going to be several years before we'll think about extensions for the 2020 QB class.
Most of the talk will surround what these players will get in terms of average-per-year salary. But the real question, as always, is what they will get in terms of guaranteed money.
Furthermore, each team must examine its team building philosophy to determine how to best build around the quarterbacks, assuming the teams decide they are comfortable with doing so.
Let's look at each team's situation and what we may expect with these quarterbacks over time.
Baker Mayfield: After a solid rookie season, in which Mayfield posted 628 DYAR per Football Outsiders, he regressed in his second season and had just 48 DYAR. The Browns made changes to the coaching staff, including a new head coach, and Mayfield overcame a slow start to finish on a good note, positing 545 DYAR.
Mayfield appears to at least be a good quarterback capable of great games. That's somebody the Browns can build around, as long as they remain patient and properly build the team around him.
The Browns have done a good job building the offensive line and they have a good running back duo. Things haven't worked out as hoped, though, with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., so the team is still trying to find a receiver who can complement Jarvis Landry.
Should Mayfield improve further in 2021, the Browns will need to prioritize an extension. While one can argue that Mayfield shouldn't exceed the numbers Allen received, he's likely to surpass what Dak Prescott received. A contract with at least $130M guaranteed, with nearly $100M fully guaranteed, is likely to happen should Mayfield cement his status as the Browns' long-term guy.
Lamar Jackson: The Ravens QB had a typical rookie season, in which he showed he had plenty to improve but, at the same time, showed a lot of potential. That potential was realized in 2019 with his MVP season, but in 2020, he regressed more than one would have expected.
Jackson doesn't need to get to, say, Patrick Mahomes level to be the guy the Ravens can build around, but he does need to show that his 2020 performance isn't the norm and get better in the passing game. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be schemed in designed run plays, but he does need to refine his work as a passer to become a better overall player.
The Ravens have typically done a good job building their team, even when they haven't had a true franchise quarterback. Though they haven't quite put together a top contingent of receivers, it hasn't been for lack of trying.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have done a good job when it comes to building an offensive line and their defensive unit has been in the top 10 the past few seasons. If Jackson improves in 2021, they'll be in a great position.
As for a contract Jackson will command, it won't surprise me if he and his agent push for numbers closer to what Allen got, because Jackson has an MVP under his belt. If Jackson's 2021 shows he's more comparable to Mayfield, though, it won't surprise me if Jackson and his agent wait to see what Mayfield gets, then look to surpass it. And if Mayfield does surpass Prescott in the final numbers, Jackson would be in position to possibly hit $100M in full guarantees, matching Allen.
Kyler Murray: The Cardinals quarterback had a respectable showing as a passer in his second season and led all quarterbacks in rushing DYAR with 186. Though his ceiling appears to be that of a good, but not elite, QB, he's still a player the Cardinals can build around.
The Cardinals' offensive linemen have had to deal with injuries in recent seasons, but when healthy, they have some quality players. And the Cardinals took an important step in improving the line with the addition of center Rodney Hudson.
As for the receivers, DeAndre Hopkins is a top talent, but it remains to be seen if AJ Green can get healthy or if another player can step forward -- though rookie WR Rondale Moore has impressed in training camp, it's not unusual for rookie receivers to take time to adjust to the NFL.
If Murray is looking to hit the levels that Allen hit in his contract, he's going to have to take a major step forward this season. Otherwise, he's more likely to have to settle for something in line with what Mayfield is likely to receive in a deal.
One thing that could work in Murray's favor, though, is that he's the only QB in the 2019 class thus far who showed some improvement from his first to second year. If none of the others show improvement, it's possible Murray could take advantage of a situation in which he's the best QB entering his prime, among a group of middling players.
Justin Herbert: While it's easy to get caught up in the hype, the reality is that Herbert, while having a great rookie season, had a season that would be considered "good" when compared to others. Still, Herbert gave the Chargers plenty of reasons to be excited about his prospects.
The Chargers had a bad offensive line last year, but the Chargers took steps to address it, particularly through the signing of center Corey Linsley. Drafting offensive tackle Rashawn Slater was a smart move, too, though it may take time for him to adjust to NFL play.
The Chargers have a good No. 1 receiver in Keenan Allen, but Mike Williams is entering his fifth-year option and they'll have to ask if it's worth extending him -- especially with a potential free agent WR group in 2022 that will be deep with talent. Williams is a good player, but is he worth No. 1 WR money?
The defense will also need to be addressed next offseason, unless Brandon Staley finds a way to take the personnel he has now and surprises everyone.
With all that said, Herbert may not take a major leap forward in 2021, but it would be reasonable to expect some improvement. The Chargers have certainly made good moves on offense this offseason to help him do so. Only time will tell what happens with Herbert, but if he keeps playing at a high level, it won't be surprising to see him surpass Allen's contract.
Joe Burrow: A lot of people got caught up in the hype surrounding Burrow, but the reality was that he was having a typical rookie season in 2020, before a torn ACL ended his season. Burrow has the talent, but people should pump the brakes before declaring the Bengals have the QB who can take this team to the playoffs soon.
The Bengals offensive line wasn't good last year, but unlike the Chargers, the Bengals didn't do as much to improve the line. Certainly the signing of Riley Reiff was good, but then again, anybody was an upgrade over Bobby Hart at right tackle. Meanwhle, they continue to roll with Jonah Williams at left tackle when he's better suited to play guard, while rolling with either inexperienced players, failed prospects or journeymen to fill the interior.
The Bengals will have the receiving corps that gives Burrow the potential for big numbers. But what good is that if Burrow continues to run for his life on every play? The last thing the Bengals need is for Burrow to wind up like Andrew Luck, in that he takes a lot of punishment and decides he's had enough, because those building the team did a poor job of doing so.
Should Burrow overcome the team's deficiencies, though, he might be in position to ask for a lot of money in return. After all, if the evidence is clear that you are a QB who is making almost everybody else around you look better than they are, you would expect to be one of the highest paid in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins' 2020 first-round pick got plenty of criticism, but to be fair, he wasn't that bad. Tagovailoa had a typical rookie season, in which he showed flashes of potential, but plenty to improve.
Truth be told, people were spending their time comparing Tua to Herbert's great rookie season, to Burrow getting more highlight reel plays, and to the FitzMagic narrative. But to call Tagovailoa a bust already would be extremely short sighted.
The Dolphins relied more on the defense last season, which ranked 11th in Football Outsiders DVOA (the offense ranked 18th). They have a lot of younger players on offense, particularly the offensive line. In theory, the young players on the O-line could come together over time and play well as a unit.
The Dolphins added Will Fuller in free agency and drafted Jaylen Waddle to improve the receiving corps, and the selection of Liam Eichenberg in the 2021 draft is likely who the Dolphins hope will be the final piece of the O-line. If things come together, Tagovailoa could be set to break out in 2021.
As far as a contract is concerned, the Dolphins' philosophy of building around mostly younger players could make this a challenge. How many of those young players will they be able to keep together when it's time for them to be extended?
That could be a bigger challenge if Tagovailoa breaks out this year, then carries over that play into the next couple of seasons. While the jury is still out on what Tua will ultimately become, strong play means the Dolphins will have a QB looking to surpass Allen, while the team figures out who else in the supporting cast can be retained.