What's the Best Strategy When Paying a Running Back?
A look at values for high-paid veterans, low-paid veterans and recently drafted players
If you ask the majority of people who do salary cap analysis for the NFL, they will tell you it’s not a good idea to pay a lot of money for a veteran running back.
Yet, in 2024, three running backs got signed to deals that, while not market-changing deals, compensated them well: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs.
Two of those backs — Barkley and Henry — got extensions this past offseason. And there are other veteran backs who are getting paid a considerable sum of money, even if not all of them have re-set the market for the position.
And going back to those who believe it’s not a good idea to pay a lot for a veteran running back, these same people will point to veteran running backs on low-cost deals or to drafted players and say that’s where you get a better return for your money.
I decided to look at a few notable running backs and their Over the Cap valuation compared to their APY salary. The question to answer is whether it’s better to go with the low-cost veteran or drafted back as opposed to considerable compensation for a veteran back.
Let’s start with the three running backs who signed noteworthy deals in 2024, keeping in mind that two of them got extensions this past offseason.
Saquon Barkley: $20.6M APY, $7.386M OTCV
Derrick Henry: $15M APY, $3M OTCV
Josh Jacobs: $12M APY, $13M OTCV
Note that Barkley signed for $12.5M APY on a three-year deal in 2024 while Henry signed for $9M APY on a three-year deal.
The real mistake the Eagles and Ravens made was giving their running backs a new extension rather than letting them play out the deals they signed in 2024. This does not mean the two would be delivering better results if they hadn’t been extended. Rather, it means that the gap between their APY salary and their valuation wouldn’t be as significant.
The other thing to note is Jacobs is younger than Barkley and Henry, even though Jacobs saw a lot of touches in his time with the Raiders. With Henry, it was risky to give him a new deal as he turned 31 this year.
What if we look at some notable veteran backs who are getting paid significant sums of money? Here are the other backs who are getting at least $10M APY salary.
Christian McCaffrey: $19M APY, $13.25M OTCV
Jonathan Taylor: $14M APY, $13.648M OTCV
Alvin Kamara: $12.25M APY, $6.088M OTCV
James Cook: $11.5M APY, $11.65M OTCV
Kyren Williams: $11M APY, $10.379M OTCV
Aaron Jones: $10M APY, $1.118M OTCV
McCaffrey, Taylor and Kamara all signed their extensions several years ago. Taylor is delivering as expected, while McCaffrey is playing well but not at a level that justifies the deal. Kamara is 30 years old and on a team that’s rebuilding, meaning he’s a potential cap casualty in 2026. Jones is 31 years old and in the final year of a two-year deal.
Cook and Williams signed their extensions this year and are delivering as expected. Both teams did a solid job understanding that it was better to pay them closer to what Barkley and Jacobs got in 2024 rather than going for the deal Barkley got this past offseason.
Cook and Williams are also examples of running backs who weren’t drafted early and got extended in their final years of their rookie deals. That can be a good strategy to follow, in that you don’t pay the back a lot of money at first, but if he performs well, you can reward him once he’s eligible for an extension.
Here are some other veteran running backs who got multi-year deals for less than $10M APY.
David Montgomery: $9.125M APY, $4.329M OTCV
Rhamondre Stevenson: $9M APY, $3.4M OTCV
Chuba Hubbard: $8.3M APY, $6.175M OTCV
D’Andre Swift: $8M APY, $5,906M OTCV
Tony Pollard: $7.25M APY, $7.25M OTCV
Devin Singletary: $5.5M APY, $1.56M OTCV
Jaylen Warren: $5.952M APY, $5.183M OTCV
These backs didn’t necessarily stand out as featured backs and their APY salaries reflect that. Pollard and Warren are delivering as expected, while the others aren’t doing that to various degrees. But the teams didn’t necessarily overspend on a running back here and, in a couple of cases, the teams can move on from the player next season if necessary.
What about veteran backs who signed one-year deals this past offseason? Here are some examples.
Najee Harris: $5.25M APY, $1.034M OTCV
Javonte Williams: $3M APY, $13.365M OTCV
Rico Dowdle: $2.75M APY, $3.86M OTCV
JK Dobbins: $2.065M APY, $7.14M OTCV
Nick Chubb: $2.5M APY, $2.997M OTCV
Williams is having a career-best season and Dobbins has been a steady performer, while Dowdle and Chubb are delivering as expected for their deals and Harris tore his Achilles tendon and is done for the season. While Williams can certainly be an example of why it’s better to sign veteran backs to one-year deals, he’s not the rule in terms of the value he delivers. Teams should also be cautious about paying him too much in a new deal based on his play this season.
What about drafted running backs? Let’s look at those who were recently taken in the first round.
Ashton Jeanty: $8.9M APY, $8.697M OTCV
Bijan Robinson: $5.5M APY, $14.178M OTCV
Jahmyr Gibbs: $4.5M APY, $8.989M OTCV
Omarion Hampton: $4.4M APY, $9.861M OTCV
Travis Etienne: $3.2M APY, $9.5M OTCV
Etienne is on the fifth-year option of his deal, which is for $6.143M, so he’s delivering a solid return. Jeanty was drafted in the top 10 and, thus, his salary is higher than any other back among the five, but he’s at least delivering on it. The others are exceeding the value of their deals. Etienne will be an unrestricted free agent and it will be interesting to see how he’s treated in the market.
Finally, let’s look at a few running backs who were recent draft picks after the first round and see what they are delivering.
Quinshon Judkins: $2.85M APY, $5.74M OTCV
TreVeyon Henderson: $2.785M APY, $2.43M OTCV
Rachaad White: $1.28M APY, $3.545M OTCV
Breece Hall: $2.25M APY, $8.676M OTCV
Cam Skattebo: $1.32M APY, $10.418M OTCV
Isaiah Pacheco: $935K APY, $3.437M OTCV
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: $1.076M APY, $3.71M OTCV
Skattebo is a fourth-round pick and in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year given his play. While he certainly stands as an example in finding value in a running back in the later rounds, he’s not the clear rule. Judkins, though, got a late start to the season and could do more to raise his value.
Hall, to his credit, is playing well and is in the final year of his deal. He’s another player in which it will be interesting to see what he gets in the open market, should he not be extended by the Jets.
In looking at these examples, there is a case to make for relying more on low-cost veterans and draft picks at the running back position, but it’s more about justifying the investment in the player than it is about getting great value. With that said, that case is not definitively supported, as there are examples of veteran backs who got considerable amounts and are delivering.
I think the best advice for teams is to wait until after the first round to draft a running back, then if he plays well for three seasons, you can extend him before he starts his fourth season but structure the deal so it’s “two years then we’ll see.” That way, you can hedge your bets a bit should the running back’s play decline. And if you do sign a veteran back to a multi-year deal, it’s better to let the back play out the deal, rather than extending him again after one season simply because he played better than you expected.