Which NFL Teams Are Really Set Well for the Future?
It's easy to look at a team's short-term picture, but the long-term pictures matters, too.
It's easy for NFL fans to look at teams who keep restructuring contracts to gain more cap space and believe this is the way to go to build an instant Super Bowl contender.
However, when teams keep restructuring deals or extending certain players to retain them for coming seasons, they can harm themselves in the long term, even if it may mean a playoff trip in the short term.
I wanted to examine all 32 teams to look at how they are positioned for 2023, in terms of projected cap space, players currently under contract and the current number of draft picks.
These numbers are subject to change, of course, but they can give you an idea about what the team needs to consider in the seasons to come. Thinking both short-term and long-term picture is going to give teams a better chance of ensuring success, rather than going year to year all the time.
And, at some point, every team needs to hit the reset button and not try to keep everyone together in the hopes that they get just one more run at a Super Bowl.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are clearly aiming for a Super Bowl this season, but they are in a solid position for next year, with the majority of players under contract and likely a decent amount of cap space. They will simply need to be selective when it comes to which players to retain or add.
In the 2022 draft, the Bills will have eight total picks, which will allow them a chance to find a few players to develop, who could potentially take over for any players they don't plan to keep after 2022. As long as they continue to be selective with offseason decisions, they should be in good shape.
Miami Dolphins
After a quiet start to free agency, the Dolphins made two splashy moves with the signing of Terron Armstead and the trade for Tyreek Hill. Interestingly, the Dolphins will have a good number of players under contract next year and a decent amount of cap space, though it remains to be seen how many recently drafted players will make the roster this season.
The issue that could come into play is the draft, with the Dolphins now having just five picks in 2022 and no picks until the third round. If things do not work out this year with Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins will need to use 2023 as a time to reassess, rather than go all in on free agency again.
New England Patriots
The Patriots were the biggest spenders last season but sat out of free agency for the most part this year, mainly out of necessity because they were tight against the cap. Next year, they should have a good number of players still under contract and a better cap situation, plus they will be able to get out of a couple of bad contracts.
They do have seven total picks in this year's draft and it won't surprise me if they look to trade down this year. The Patriots are likely to be in a holding pattern this season, but if Mac Jones improves, they may have to look at 2023 as the time to explore free agency again while Jones is still under an inexpensive rookie contract.
New York Jets
The Jets made a few moves this free agency period, but they weren't what one would call splashy. They are in a strong position for 2023 with 42 players under contract and expected to have plenty of cap space.
With nine picks in this year's draft, including two in the top 10, the Jets really need to find additional players who can form the core of the roster. They also need to see Zach Wilson improve, and if he does, 2023 could be the year they are more aggressive in free agency.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will likely have a lot of cap space for 2023, but some of that space could go toward an extension for Lamar Jackson. It's possible the Ravens could just usethe franchise tag, but if they do extend them, they at least will be able to get a team-friendly structure in place.
With 10 picks in this year's draft, the Ravens are in good position to replenish the roster. One would expect that the Ravens should be in the playoff conversation this year, after losing so many players to injury last year. If they do get back to the playoffs, they will be in good position in 2023 to build the roster to stay in the playoff hunt.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have become more active in free agency, but they aren't sacrificing too much in the long term to gain more in the short term. That's a good thing, because if Joe Burrow builds upon a good 2022 season, an extension is likely coming for him in 2023.
With eight total picks in the draft, the Bengals have enough resources remaining to fill remaining roster holes and show that their 2021 success was no fluke. If they do make another deep playoff run, they will be in a strong position in 2023 to ensure they keep doing so in the future.
Cleveland Browns
The DeShaun Watson trade and subsequent contract he received makes it clear that the Browns are tying themselves to him for the next few years. But consider that they will be tight on cap space and don't have many players under contract for 2023, and it's clear that the Browns will be in a bad position if things don't work out in 2022.
The Browns at least have seven picks in this year's draft, so they will have a chance to find a few contributors there. However, if they don't draft well or things otherwise fall apart this season, they will find it extremely difficult to get back on track, given a lack of resources in 2023.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers didn't leverage their future much with their offseason moves and, while they won't have many players under contract, they will be in position to keep those they wish to retain or add free agents from other teams.
As for the draft, the Steelers have enough picks this year to fill needs, but given the state of the team, 2022 might be best served as a chance to assess where they really stand in the AFC. If they do finish last in the AFC North, then they know they will need to pursue their next quarterback to build around and go from there for 2023.
AFC South
Houston Texans
The Texans just seem to be kicking the can down the road to 2023, but at least they will have more cap space to work with. Given that they don't have a lot of players under contract in 2023, they would be advised to be more active in free agency next year.
In the draft, they have no shortage of capital with 11 draft picks, two in the top 15. With multiple firsts in the 2023 draft as well, they very much look like a team that is playing for 2023. The main thing is for the Texans to draft players who become part of their core and get them back into the playoff hunt.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a team that continues to tread water, going with what would be short-term solutions at best at the QB position and avoiding free agency. They will have no shortage of cap space next season, but if the past couple of seasons are any indication, they probably won't be active in free agency for another season.
Given that the Colts have just seven picks in this year's draft, with no first-round pick, they need to ask themselves if they are trying to make the playoffs this year or if they are better served playing for 2023. Getting stuck in that 9-8 territory isn't going to do them any favors if they hope to draft a QB to build around.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After spending a lot in free agency, you would think they have leveraged too much of the future to focus on the present. The Jaguars, though, will have a decent amount of cap space and don't have a lot of players with expiring contracts that they must retain for 2023.
They are still in good position in the draft with 12 total picks. If they can find some immediate contributors, they are a team that could challenge for the top spot of a weak division. The main thing is to not lose sight of the need for flexibility and, thus, go "all in" in 2023 if they continue to struggle.
Tennessee Titans
For some reason, the Titans continue to operate as though they are just a few players away from reaching the Super Bowl. But with limited cap space next year and several players on the current roster showing their age, they need to reconsider.
The Titans do have seven draft picks, so they aren't lacking for resources there. However, if the Titans don't make the playoffs in 2022, they need to step back and reassess. Even if they do reach the playoffs, they will need to ask themselves how much longer they believe that run will continue with the roster they have.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren't projected to have a lot of cap space for 2023, so they will need to be careful with roster decisions moving forward. While they did give up a lot of draft capital for Russell Wilson, they aren't necessarily in a position to go "all in" on free agency.
Of course, the Broncos won't have first-round picks this and next year and no second-round pick next year (they have one this year). They will need to do a good job of finding players in this year's draft who have potential to be developed into starters. They do have some flexibility to increase cap space for 2023, but again, they don't want to be too aggressive with free agent moves.
Kansas City Chiefs
On one hand, the Chiefs are expected to have more cap space for 2023. On the other hand, they don't have a lot of players under contract for 2023. Therefore, they need to take time to identify who is going to form the core of the roster going forward.
They did gain more draft capital after trading Tyreek Hill, and with 12 draft picks, they are in position to add young talent that could become part of that core. If they draft the right players, they should be able to keep themselves in the Super Bowl hunt, even if they might not enter the coming years as the hands-down favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are projected to have a lot of cap space in 2023, but not a lot of players under contract, and one of those with an expiring contract is quarterback Derek Carr. They thus need to decide what his future is with the team and how much they are willing to pay if they keep him after 2022.
After the Davante Adams trade, the Raiders have just five picks in the upcoming draft, meaning they won't be able to add as much in the way of younger players. They still need to look at 2022 as the year in which they determine what Carr's future will be. Once they know that, they can go from there in 2023.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were more aggressive in free agency this year, both in signings and trades, but it's going to come with a cost next year. They aren't projected to have a lot of cap space (though they will likely have some carryover from 2022) and don't have that many players under contract for 2023.
The good news is that the Chargers have 10 total picks in the upcoming draft. Therefore, they need to draft well to fill remaining holes on the roster. That will be important because, if Justin Herbert continues to play well, he is likely to seek an extension in 2023.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys aren't projected to have a lot of cap space next year, but with the majority of players under contract and some carryover likely coming, they don't necessarily need to make a lot of cuts.
With nine picks in the upcoming draft, the Cowboys need to have a good draft and, moving forward, be selective in free agency. They need to avoid the temptation of going "all in" for roster moves they think will get them to the Super Bowl.
New York Giants
The Giants pretty much did what they could in free agency to keep themselves under the cap, but the good news is they will have a lot more cap space in 2023. They won't have a lot of players under contract, though I don't believe they have a lot who must be retained.
The Giants have nine picks, two in the top 10, and are in position to add players that can form the core of the roster moving forward. It won't surprise me if the Giants are focused more on 2023 and drafting a quarterback at that time.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have the majority of their roster under contract for 2023 and a modest amount of cap space. They have done a good job navigating what could have been a difficult situation and are in position to keep the majority of the roster together if things go well in 2022.
And with 10 total picks, with three in the first round, the Eagles could find even more players who can contribute. They do need to ask themselves if Jalen Hurts is the long-term guy at quarterback, but if they choose to go in a different direction in 2023, they could have a roster that proves appealing to a veteran quarterback.
Washington Commanders
Cap space won't be an issue for the Commanders in 2023 and they don't have a lot of players with expiring contracts. The question is whether they have the roster in place now that will allow them to challenge for a playoff spot.
They have just six picks in the draft and could benefit from trading down in the first round. I still believe that the current regime is expected to "win or else" in 2022. If changes are made after the season, the Commanders will at least be in a solid position cap wise to fix the roster.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
The Bears are expected to have more cap space than any other NFL team in 2023. They don't have a lot of players under contract, but with the cap space they will likely have, they won't have an issue with finding ways to address the roster via free agency.
They did get some more draft capital in the Khalil Mack trade and have six total picks in the 2022 draft. That's still not enough to replenish the roster. But with the cap space expected for 2023 and a promising young QB in Justin Fields, the Bears can afford to build toward 2023, at which time they can be more aggressive with free agent moves.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are in a solid position in 2023 both in terms of cap space and how many players will be under contract. It's possible, though, that they will move on from Jared Goff next season, or at the very least, get him to renegotiate his salary.
Nine draft picks this year give the Lions plenty of chances to find players to form the core of the team going forward. Every indication is that the Lions will be focused on the 2023 QB draft class, so 2023 could be the year that they get more aggressive in free agency.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are in a good cap situation next year in terms of projected space, part which may be explained by the decision to trade Davante Adams after he indicated his desire to move on. However, the Packers will have to watch the increasing cap numbers for certain players and avoid restructures.
The Adams trade means the Packers have 11 total picks, so a good draft class will go a long way to ensuring they have a roster not just to ensure they keep winning as long as Rodgers keeps playing, but to find players who can be part of that core after Rodgers retires.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings aren't expected to have much cap space to work with in 2023. They continue to tie themselves to Kirk Cousins who, while not a bad quarterback, hasn't proven to be worth the money they have paid him.
They will have eight draft picks in 2022 and must identify players who will be part of the core going forward. If they do slip into the playoffs this year, they must be careful not to keep tying themselves to Cousins. At some point, they will need to move forward and, while they won't be able to cut Cousins, they will need to say no to any further extensions.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
After having failed to acquire DeShaun Watson, the Falcons appear to be going into this season thinking more about 2023 than 2022. The good news is that, while they are carrying a lot of dead money this year, they will finally be out of that tight cap situation next year and, thus, they will be in position to retain players they want to keep or add others in free agency.
Going into the draft, they already have nine total picks, but might want to think about trading down whenever possible, potentially adding more picks in 2023. That could put them in better position to draft a quarterback next year.
Carolina Panthers
On one hand, the Panthers aren't projected to have a lot of cap space in 2023. On the other hand, they could have a lot of carryover unless they make a bold move to acquire a veteran QB before the draft. Truth be told, they might actually be better off riding it out with Sam Darnold and a draft pick in 2022.
The Panthers gave up a lot of draft capital last year, so they have just five picks in this year's draft. The best thing the Panthers can do is ride it out this year and figure out exactly what direction they need to go for 2023. If they do make a bold move for a veteran QB, it's only going to make things worse in the future.
New Orleans Saints
Surprise, surprise -- the Saints are already projected to be over the cap in 2023. They have continued to restructure their way out of current cap predicaments, only to put themselves into more in the future. And after they didn't land DeShaun Watson, they will try again with Jameis Winston.
The Saints have seven picks in the 2022 draft and I suspect they'll only make it to the playoffs if they have a draft similar to 2017. But if they aren't fortunate to have that, they really need to ask themselves how much longer they can kick the cap can down the road and when it's time to take a different approach.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After Tom Brady decided to return for 2023, the Buccaneers kept multiple free agents, will be riding tight against the cap this year and are projected to be over it next year. As long as Brady is around, they will remain a Super Bowl contender -- but all they have to do is look at the Saints to see what happens when that QB retires for good and they try too hard to keep everyone together.
With just six picks in the upcoming draft, the Buccaneers have limited resources to find younger players for the future. While they are certainly playing for a Super Bowl this year, they will need to watch their situation moving forward. At whatever point Brady decides to call it a career -- and makes it a permanent decision -- the Bucs need to reassess and not try to keep everyone around for another year.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals will likely have a lot of cap space in 2023, but they don't have a lot of players under contract. They will have to ask themselves how much they are willing to pay Kyler Murray -- if they want to extend him, that is -- and how the roster will look going forward.
They do have eight picks in the 2022 draft, so they have plenty of opportunities to add players who can become part of the roster's core. What they need to do moving forward will depend on what they decide to do with Murray. If he shows in 2023 that he's clearly the guy to build around, they might want to do more in free agency to get the final pieces in place.
Los Angeles Rams
After extending Matthew Stafford and keeping Joseph Noteboom, the Rams now have the core of their roster intact going into 2022. They will be in a solid position in terms of cap space next season and don't have a lot of players with expiring contracts, so they shouldn't have to make bold moves going forward.
Plenty of people joke about the lack of first-round picks the Rams have, but they have done well finding players in later rounds and will have eight total picks this year. If they don't make the Super Bowl this year, they simply need to ask themselves in 2023 which players have to be part of the future going forward and which do not, then go from there.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners will have plenty of cap space in 2023 but have a lot of players with expiring contracts. That future cap space is likely to be committed to extending any players who deserve to be part of the roster moving forward. They will need to make a decision eventually about Jimmy Garoppolo, who I suspect is only on the roster now because he is recovering from offseason surgery and a release would trigger an injury settlement.
In the draft, the Niners will have nine total picks, so they will be able to find players to fill out the roster. They are clearly positioning themselves to build around Trey Lance and their focus will likely be on the current roster to determine who is worthy of extensions, rather than looking outside the team for help.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are another team that will have a lot of cap space in 2023 but a lot of players with expiring contracts. They are at a crossroads, having traded Russell Wilson while keeping the current regime around for what is a clear rebuild.
They will have plenty of draft capital after the Wilson trade, with eight total picks, and need to get things right with this draft class. Moving forward, they have to ask themselves if the current regime can be trusted with the rebuild and how it should be accomplished. It won't surprise me if the Seahawks are one of the teams keeping a close eye on the 2023 QB draft class.