Who Has the Most NFL Salary Cap Work Ahead, Part 1
There are 12 teams who will have work to do to get under the 2023 salary cap. Let's look at the first six and their situations.
With the NFL playoff field to be reduced to four teams after the divisional round is played, the bulk of teams will now be focused on offseason decisions.
For some teams, this is going to mean making some difficult decisions when it comes to putting together a roster that allows them to get under the salary cap.
Over the Cap projects the base cap to be $225M. There will be a number of teams who have some cap carryover from 2022, so their actual cap (base cap plus carryover) may be higher.
But there will still be a few teams who will have to make some decisions about who to keep on the roster going into 2023. In some cases, they may have to do restructures (convert base salary or roster bonus into signing bonus), but in other cases, they may want to renegotiate contracts (this usually means reducing base salary but with the chance to earn incentives).
Here are six teams whose cap situations are the worst and what they will need to consider as they go into the offseason. Next week, I'll go over the other six teams who will have work to do as well.
New Orleans Saints
It seems we capologists are always talking about the Saints. This is a team that has kicked the cap can down the road so many times when it chased a final Super Bowl trip under Drew Brees, that it's still trying to dig out of that hole.
Projected to be $61.2M under the cap once they get 51 players under contract, the Saints have a lot of work to do. They won't be able to just cut their way to get under the cap and, in some cases, will likely have to restructure deals, though in other cases, they probably need to renegotiate.
The Saints already re-worked the contract of Michael Thomas so they may utilize the post-June 1 designation to get out of his deal. They are also reportedly trying to extend David Onyemata, whose deal expired but had void years for cap purposes. Otherwise, they'll likely talk themselves into more restructures, but they may want to consider renegotiating some contracts instead.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs used to keep the bulk of their guaranteed money in base salaries and didn't use signing bonuses. However, after they won the Super Bowl two years ago, they used those bonuses to keep the team together for another run.
Now the bill has come due because the Bucs are projected to be $54.6M over the cap. There's talk that Tom Brady may move on to another team, which means $35M in dead money from a signing bonus pro-rated through void years will accelerate onto the cap.
The Bucs will likely have to restructure a bunch of contracts, though in some cases, they should probably renegotiate. They will likely extend Devin White to lower his cap number. They also have to ask if they want to extend Lavonte David, lest they deal with $6.8M in dead money that will accelerate onto the cap.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were a team that either hung around in close games and managed to win or came from behind when down by a fair margin (and in one case by a large margin). While they deserve credit for a successful season, they now have some decisions to make.
The Vikings are projected to be $24.5M over the cap. They could do another extension for Kirk Cousins, but I've talked about how that may not be the smartest decision.
There are ways for the Vikings to get under the cap without having to extend Cousins again. Where it really needs to start is parting ways with aging players and replacing them with younger, cheaper players. They may have won the NFC North this year, but they cannot assume that they are just a few players away from a Super Bowl.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans hired Ran Cathron to be the new general manager. His first task will be figuring out how the roster should be built moving forward. And that may mean having to do a soft rebuild.
The Titans are projected to be $23.3M over the cap. They have multiple players who are aging and it's probably best to cut at least a couple of them. Some will point to Ryan Tannehill, but then the Titans have to figure out who will be the quarterback for 2023.
Some may argue that head coach Mike Vrabel won't want to go through a rebuild and, thus, the Titans should restructure contracts instead. However, it's possible for the Titans to get under the cap without having to gut the roster. They just have to be honest about who can be a contributor going forward and who isn't performing as expected.
Los Angeles Chargers
After the Chargers blew a large lead in the wild card round of the playoffs, the talk was that Brandon Staley would be fired. He's coming back for another year, while offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was fired instead, but the Chargers still have some questions to answer about the roster.
The Chargers are projected to be $19.9M over the cap. They are also nearing the point in which they will have to extend quarterback Justin Herbert. That extension might come while other players are being cut.
Some of the players who the Chargers might have to make tough decisions about are notable names. There will be those who push for restructures instead, but the Chargers have to be careful with that, particularly if they are older players in which there's no telling when their play will start declining.
Green Bay Packers
After the Packers gave Aaron Rodgers a massive extension, the expectation was that they would win the NFC North again. That didn't happen, though they came close to slipping in as the No. 7 playoff seed.
Still, the Packers are in a rough situation as they are projected to be $16.2M over the cap. They've built the roster with the expectation of playoff trips but have to ask themselves if how much longer they'll be in that position.
It's not just about Rodgers and what he decides to do, but how much longer other players on the roster will be around or able to play at a high level. That means they'll have to be careful about the restructures. It's tempting for them to keep chasing playoff trips, but the more they hear about Rodgers possibly retiring, the more they need to ask if it's time for a soft rebuild.