Who Re-sets the NFL Contract Market Next?
It seems big contracts are being handed out a lot, but for players with expiring deals, there are only a handful likely to top the field at their positions.
We have entered what is usually the quiet part of the NFL offseason. The draft was more than a month ago, the free agent frenzy period is long over and fans now count the days until training camp.
But the quiet part has the occasional blip of a player signing a new extension. We've already seen that happen with Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp of the Rams, and now, we've seen it with the Steelers and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick signed a four-year extension that gave him $36M fully guaranteed, though only about $26M of that is new money. He already had $10.6M in fully guaranteed money due in 2022, after the Steelers exercised his fifth-year option in 2021.
Of course, the talk will mostly focus on the big payday for a top player whose deal was going to expire after 2022. After all, Fitzpatrick just re-set the market for safeties, so who is going to be next?
Among safeties, Jessie Bates III is probably going to be the name everybody thinks about first, but there will be talk about who is going to re-set the market at other positions, too.
Our focus here will be on those who enter the last year of their current deals. In other words, you won't see somebody like Kyler Murray or Cameron Jordan, who are under contract for 2023. The ones we'll discuss are those who have deals that expire after 2022 and, as of this writing, have yet to be extended.
Let's look at each position and ask ourselves if one of these players is going to be next in line to top the market.
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson is certain to get most of the attention. The assumption is every franchise QB who gets a new deal is going to top Aaron Rodgers, because of course they will.
But while Jackson is a good quarterback, is he really a game changer? Should he be surpassing everyone from Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes to Josh Allen on a new contract?
Unless the Ravens reach the Super Bowl this season and Jackson has another MVP-worthy year, he's more likely to fall below those QBs on a new deal. He'll still be compensated well — after all, the likes of Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford averaged $40M APY on their deals — but Jackson will probably settle in below the top three QBs.
Running back: This is the part where people will remind you about the dangers of giving a big contract to a running back. This is particularly true if you were foolish enough to draft a running back early in the first round.
Saquon Barkley was the No. 2 overall pick in 2018 and Dave Gettleman even exercised his fifth-year option. However, it's hard to see anybody putting up big money for Barkley at this point — even those who would dare to hand out big money to a running back.
Maybe somebody gets smitten with Josh Jacobs and looks past the fact his 1,000-yard season came with 273 rushing attempts, giving him 3.9 yards per carry. Otherwise, it's hard to see any running back re-set the market, especially because most of the backs with expiring deals are on one-year deals to begin with.
Wide receiver: Now here's a position in which you will see plenty of names, many who have already been mentioned since the likes of Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown agreed to new deals after being traded.
Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin lead the way. There may be talk about Jakobi Meyers and Diontae Johnson getting paid well. Who among these could be the one to break the $30M APY threshold?
While one can't rule out any of these players topping the APY list, it's more likely they come in at what Brown received. Hill and Adams both got their third contracts and are considered to be the best of the best.
The younger receivers with expiring deals are quality players, but may not be "best of the best." While they will get paid well, they may not get paid as much as some may think.
Tight end: Most of our candidates are under the franchise tag. Because the tag is a one-year contract once signed, we will count these players in our discussion.
David Njoku didn't re-set the market in his deal, but he got paid more than some might expect. That means Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki will likely push for a deal similar to Njoku's.
And keep an eye on Dawson Knox, the most notable of the tight ends with an expiring deal, but not under the franchise tag. Another quality season from Knox means we could see another tight end maybe not exceeding George Kittle, but possibly entering the $14M APY club.
Offensive tackle: Start with Orlando Brown, who is under the franchise tag. He's the only left tackle likely to enter the conversation, though. While he will push for more than $20M APY, the other left tackles are either older or don't play a lot of snaps.
Right tackle has two players to watch. It remains to be seen what the Jaguars think about Jawaan Taylor and the Falcons think about Kaleb McGary. Both teams already paid their left tackles well, though they didn't re-set the market.
It's hard to see any of the remaining tackles topping the field. Therefore, you probably won't see a lot of talk about big money at this position, other than the three mentioned.
Offensive guard: The highest paid guards in the NFL get $16M APY or more, but there's just three (Joel Bitonio, Joe Thuney and Brandon Scherff). But the majority of guards haven't received deals that grab your attention.
Quenton Nelson, a former first-round pick, could be in line for a top-of-the-market deal. Otherwise, it's players such as David Edwards, Olisaemeka Udoh, Nate Davis and Dalton Risner -- good players but maybe not ones that make waves with new contracts.
It's possible that Nelson closes in on $16M APY, but it's hard to see anyone else doing that. The reality is that guards haven't moved the market as much as it first appears. You can still sign players at this position for less than $10M APY.
Center: The highest-paid centers get $13M APY. It's not a position that moves the needle much when it comes to big contracts.
I don’t believe any player with an expiring deal getting big money here. Such players are either approaching 30 years old or aren't that talented.
Interior defender: After Donald became the first defensive player to surpass $30M APY, all eyes moved toward players whose deals are about to expire. However, when it comes to interior defenders, don't expect somebody to join him.
Donald is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. He generates a lot of quarterback pressures, more than any other player.
Most of the interior defenders with expiring contracts are either older players whose best days are behind them or younger players who, while good, are not game changers. You might see a few contracts exceeding $10M APY, but nothing like what Donald received.
Edge rusher: However, it's the edge rushers who tend to get more of the top deals. Could it be that somebody with an expiring contract is in line to push for that $30M APY mark?
Not likely. Bradley Chubb is the closest, but he's more likely to fall into the second tier, and those players fall well below $20M APY. Everybody else is either aging or a young depth player.
I'm sure somebody will mention Nick Bosa, but he still has the fifth-year option in 2023. But it's possible he gets extended this offseason — and if so, we might have the player who threatens to re-set the market.
Off-ball linebacker: Fred Warner and Darius Leonard surpassed the $19M APY mark -- a mark you might think is fine or is ridiculous, depending on how much you value the position.
There might be a player or two who pushes for big money, but maybe not the $19M mark. Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds are former first-round picks. The same applies to Devin Bush, but he had his fifth-year option declined.
Maybe somebody like Bobby Okereke surprises, but for the moment, there doesn't appear to be a linebacker who is going to jump Leonard or Warner.
Cornerback: Denzel Ward and Jaire Alexander joined Jalen Ramsey in the $20M APY club. Are there any other cornerbacks who are candidates to join the club?
If we are sticking to players with expiring contracts, the answer is likely "no." Every cornerback who could hit free agency in 2023 falls into two categories: Aging or a fine complementary player, but not a No. 1 corner.
Perhaps you think somebody like Byron Murphy will surpass $15M APY because a team is desperate for help. But for now, it's hard to see a cornerback re-setting the market.
Safety: We've already mentioned Bates, but he doesn't have the multiple Pro Bowl bids that Fitzpatrick has. It's hard to justify top dollar for somebody who is good but not elite.
Bates is more likely to get money similar to Marcus Williams, who played under the franchise tag in 2021, before for signing for $14M APY in a deal with the Ravens.
The one to actually watch is Derwin James. He did miss all of 2020 and most of 2019 with injuries, but he's made the Pro Bowl twice. He'll likely have to play out 2022, but another strong season means you could be looking at $19M APY coming his way.