Why Shorter Contracts Are Better for Quarterbacks

Lengthy deals with a big number attached may look great, but in the long run, NFL quarterbacks miss out on making even more money

Josh Allen became the first of the quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft to sign an extension, and the numbers have drawn plenty of attention.

There's no question that Allen's deal is a great one for him for the next three seasons. As Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap explains, Allen set new benchmarks for fully guaranteed money and three-year cash flow.

However, was it wise for Allen to sign a six-year extension? It's easy to think about the total amount Allen can earn through the entire contract and say it was. But it's not that simple.

Allen's contract does tie him to the Bills through 2025, unless they trade him (they could reasonably do so in 2025, and in 2024, it's possible but not ideal from a dead money standpoint). However, the point about contract length is more about the opportunity for Allen to earn even more money in future years.

Quarterback salaries continue to rise -- as Fitzgerald pointed out in another article, the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning all saw considerable increases in their salaries when they got new deals.

Russell Wilson is another example, with his APY salary going from $21.9M in his second contract, to $35M in his third. In Wilson's case, he took four-year deals each time, which allowed him to get more money, thanks to the ever-rising salaries for NFL quarterbacks.

DeShaun Watson also got a four-year deal, and if his legal issues are cleared, he would be in a position to get more money when his contract runs out. His deal gives him $39M APY, and if his legal issues are cleared and he continues to play well, he could easily push past $45M on his next deal.

The same could be true for Dak Prescott, who got a four-year deal averaging $40M APY, despite his season ending early because of a broken ankle. The Cowboys usually like to go with longer deals, but Prescott got himself into a position in which, if he keeps playing well, he's looking at a bigger contract in the future.

Now compare that to Patrick Mahomes. Everyone talked about what a great deal Mahomes got with his 10-year, $450M contract. On one hand, he's in position to make a lot of money. On the other hand, he could have been in a position to make even more.

The Mahomes deal is a team-friendly contract, both in terms of the early cash flow, and in the fact that the Chiefs have him locked up for a long time. The earliest the Chiefs would likely entertain an extension is 2031, the final year of the deal, at which point Mahomes will be 36 and plenty of quarterbacks are likely to be making more money than him.

The truth is, a longer contract isn't as beneficial to a quarterback. Shorter contracts are better because the opportunity is there to take advantage of the QB market and the fact that salaries keep rising, even for average players at the position.

Just look at Kirk Cousins, who is a good but not elite quarterback, getting himself a three-year, $84M contract that was fully guaranteed -- an unprecedented deal at the time. After two seasons, Cousins was able to get an extension for two more years at $66M with $61M fully guaranteed.

Though the totals are lower than for other QBs, Cousins better positioned himself to take advantage of the market and the fact that teams are reluctant to move on from a quarterback who can deliver playoff trips, even if that QB isn’t elite.

And regardless of what one thinks about the money Cousins got, ask yourself this: If Mahomes had insisted upon taking just a three-year extension for, say, $135M (that's $45M APY) and that the amount be fully guaranteed, do you really think the Chiefs would have told him he could seek a deal elsewhere?

The truth is that NFL teams are desperate for long-term solutions at quarterback and, once they find their guy, they aren't going to let him go so easily.

Quarterbacks should be taken advantage of that and insisting on shorter contracts with more fully guaranteed money -- if not the entire amount fully guaranteed.

It's a smarter way for QBs and player agents to do business -- and while it won't mean other players will be able to follow suit, there might be a few other positions that would benefit. Pass rushers might be able to take that approach, and it's possible that wide receivers, cornerbacks and offensive tackles could, at the very least, get a larger percentage of their contracts fully guaranteed.

Some might question whether it's smart for a quarterback to take a shorter deal, because his play might decline or because he could get injured. However, if such a player did sign a longer contract and that happened, the team will be looking to cut him as soon as it gets the chance. Hence, they still miss out on money.

The truth is, the quarterback market is the most favorable to the player among all NFL positions and those who prove themselves over the long term are likely to keep getting rewarded. It's worth the risk for most quarterbacks to take the shorter deal with a larger percentage that's fully guaranteed.

Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson could be in line for extensions soon, and it won't be long before we may be talking the same for Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. They should all be taking a closer look at what the quarterback market is really like and capitalize on it.

By no means did Allen get a bad deal -- again, his contract is very good for him in certain aspects. But if quarterbacks really want to get the best deals, they need to think more about shorter contracts with more full guarantees.