Election 2022: Everything We Know Is Wrong
The red wave never happened -- in fact, it wasn't even a red trickle. What do we really need to learn?
I subtitled my last Substack "get ready for another week in which results may likely go a way pundits don't expect." That turned out to be the case, but I have to include myself among those pundits.
I thought Republicans would take a 52-48 majority in the Senate but that's not going to happen. I thought Republicans wouldn't have much trouble taking control of the House of Representatives but we get a close result instead.
Of course, plenty could be asked about why it's taking so long for Arizona and Nevada to get their votes counted, but that's another topic I'll get to later.
As for the governor's races, most of the results did go as expected when I wondered if some would not. However, some of those races were closer than expected and, while Republicans might control the majority of states, Democrats gained control of one state.
Even then, there's talk about the Republicans winning the "nationwide popular vote," even though we don't utilize that to determine any race.
It's leading to yet another round of punditry chatter, in which everyone is trying to figure out what it all means.
I have my own thoughts, of course, but I did find one of the better reads about the 2022 elections was written by Jesse Arm for City Journal. He talks about popularism, or focusing on what views are popular with the majority of voters while ignoring those that are not.
Popularism is a theory advanced by left-wing data scientist David Shor, but as the right-wing analyst Arm argues, the theory has merit when you look at voting results.
For example, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tended to back proposals favored by the Republican Party, but he made sure those proposals had broad support, not just those that pacify the GOP base.
I would encourage everyone to read what Arm has to say, but I would add a few of my own thoughts about what to recognize going forward.
1. The “more likely to vote” demographic has changed from older to college educated.
The common wisdom was that older voters could be counted on to vote in elections and that tended to vote Republican. But with each generation that has come along, more of them have earned college degrees. Generation X had more college degrees earners than the Baby Boomer generation, the millennials have earned more than either generation and Generation Z has the most college degree earners.
These college educated voters, thus far, have tended to vote Democrat but are facing economic concerns that may be similar to older voters who don't have a college degree. Those who frequent TikTok may be talking a lot about gender ideology and climate alarmism, but that doesn't mean they aren't thinking about their personal economic situations.
Addressing the concerns that college educated voters have is part of the equation, though you probably should focus on those issues that get broad support.
2. People are going to want jobs that make them feel valued and allow them basic necessities.
Working class voters of all types just want to be able to make ends meet. They aren’t all demanding jobs that pay them six figures, nor are they all demanding that every business owner kowtow to their every demand.
But they are more concerned about the power of major corporations to dictate wages and how government officials are often quick to give those corporations what they want, while ignoring the concerns workers have about being able to afford housing, transportation, groceries and health care.
And the same applies to those college educated voters who were told to pursue those degrees because that's how to get a good paying job, only to find out those jobs aren't there. They may not have realistic ideas about what a job will pay, but like working class voters, they want a job that makes them feel valued and allows them to make a decent living.
3. Complaining about “stolen elections” doesn’t sell with voters, but solutions might.
There are legitimate concerns about how elections are being run. A person wouldn’t be wrong to point out that it’s bad that certain states take multiple days to count all the votes. Declaring that the nearly week-long counts in Arizona and Nevada are "normal" is ridiculous.
However, spending all your time screaming “the election was stolen” isn’t going to sell with most voters. The better solution is to suggest reforms and why they would help.
You probably won’t get voting by mail eliminated entirely, for example, but you might get it limited to those who are clearly in need of it. Other solutions might be photo ID coupled with automatic voter registration, expanding the number of precincts in larger cities to accommodate increased voters, and limiting early voting to two weeks before Election Day and at a single location, but having that location open on Saturdays.
For those who push back on early voting, keep in mind that each party is going to have a base and that it's going to take a lot of persuasion to convince them to vote the other party. Better to let the base vote early, get them out of the way, and spend your time persuading those not part of the base, who may be willing to take more time to think about their vote.
4. The golden rule about parents is that they don’t want to be told how to raise their kids.
It matters not whether you push critical race theory, intelligent design, gender ideology, the United States is a Christian nation or whatever belief system you want to teach kids. If parents are left confused or in the dark about what their kids are learning, they are going to push back. They will particularly push back if you tell them it’s not their business what their kids learn.
But the same holds true with most every other attempt to tell parents how to raise their kids. Jailing parents for getting their kids certain medical treatments isn’t a winning issue, even if you can show evidence the treatment does more harm than good. In such cases, you need to ask about where parents are getting advice about treatment and address that instead.
5. Absolutism on social issues doesn’t sell with the vast majority of voters.
The majority of voters don’t want abortions with no restrictions at all. Neither do they want all abortions banned. They are fine with some restrictions but not a lot. And they think the same way in terms of most other social issues.
It’s why you see more states legalizing marijuana or why voters may be in favor of keeping critical race theory out of elementary classrooms, but might not be prepared to remove it from colleges.
While these issues don't pass with voters in every state, that they have passed more often than not should serve as a reminder about "popularism" and how that may be the better approach to winning voters.
6. Most voters prefer local police to federal or world police.
“Defund the police” doesn’t sell with voters because it takes away a part of a community and ensures they have some protection from criminal activity. Voters might be willing to consider ways to reform police, but you won’t get them to back diverting funds from police to something else.
However, the same voters don’t trust the FBI and don’t want that agency dictating policy. Furthermore, while they are happy to say thanks to veterans and soldiers, they don’t want to run around the world trying to solve every problem, whether it’s sending troops, money or both.
Smaller-scale policing gets a favorable response from voters, but large-scale efforts that try to implement a national or worldwide vision are going to get a negative response, particularly when voters see no benefit they get from it.
7. Populist measures only work if you have somebody who knows how to challenge anger and frustration.
Donald Trump may have gotten the ball rolling with Make America Great Again, but he’s not the guy to be carrying it forward. He’s too interested in people who pacify his ego rather than staying the course with addressing voter concerns.
His rash of executive orders may have given the appearance he did something, but it didn’t last. And since 2020, Trump has spent more time acting like the sore loser who demands unquestioned loyalty.
If angry, frustrated voters want to get their concerns addressed, they need somebody who can take the anger and frustration, then channel it in a direction that leads to solutions that, at the very least, attempt to address their concerns. Even if they don’t work, voters will at least appreciate the effort.
8. The establishment shouldn’t rest on its laurels, regardless of which side of the political spectrum they’re on.
Democrats will spend their time proclaiming the results show that they are doing nothing wrong or how people "saved democracy." Republicans will spend their time touting Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp and Greg Abbott as politicians who know what they’re doing and, therefore, follow their lead.
But if the establishment thinks they can keep going about with business as usual or just push more policies that placate the big donors, they could be in for another rude awakening.
Pay more attention to what lies underneath, not just what lies at the surface. Otherwise, it's going to be another round of punditry in which they believe certain things to be true about voters, only for the results to demonstrate it's not what the pundits think.