How Many QB Trades Are Worth The Price Paid?
The more you give up to get a quarterback, the more you should expect in return. How much did teams who traded for a veteran QB get in return?
In my last Substack, I reviewed the NFL trades for quarterbacks since 1993 in which a first-round pick was involved. In terms of looking for at least three playoff trips, the success rate of those trades wasn't that high.
Does it make more sense, then, to trade for a QB when the highest pick you give up is in the second round? Let's first consider what teams may be thinking when they do that.
If a team gives up a first rounder, it certainly wants a long-term starter who will get the team multiple playoff trips. For a second rounder, a team is likely to expect similar success, though a team might be prepared to find a replacement sooner.
When the most you give up is a third-round pick, you may be more likely taking a chance that the QB could potentially be starter, or that the QB will be a short-term solution. For picks in the fourth round or later, it depends on what round the highest pick and how many, and it can range from a QB who is meant to start for the time being until the team finds a QB through the draft, to one who is simply meant to be a backup.
Let's first go over the data I've gathered. I pulled the most notable trades from 1993 to present time, then I narrowed it down to those in which the highest pick involved was at least a fourth-round pick. Such trades indicated that the acquiring team saw this quarterback as a potential starter for at least the short term.
I then measured the trades thusly to determine if they were successes:
First-round pick highest involved: Need to be the starter for at least five seasons with winning records each season and playoff trips in at least half the seasons the quarterback is the starter.
Second-round pick highest involved: Need at least three seasons as the starter with winning records each season and at least one playoff trip.
Third-round pick highest involved: Need a winning record as the starter for at least two seasons. A playoff trip helps but isn't an absolute.
Fourth-round pick highest involved: Need at least one season as the starter with a winning record.
In my last review of the trades since 1993 with a first-round pick the highest involved, just one of the 10 met my criteria, for a success rate of 10 percent.
For those with a second-round pick the highest involved, there were 10 trades, of which one met my criteria and seven did not, while one saw a quarterback acquired, later traded for a high pick, and another would be “remains to be seen” (and I’ll explain both later). If we stick to the eight trades in which there’s no debating the criteria or outcome, you have a success rate of 12.5 percent.
For those with a third-round pick the highest involved, there were nine such trades, of which one met my criteria, seven did not and one I put aside as a special case (again, I’ll explain later). Sticking with the nine trades with no debating of criteria, you have a success rate of 11 percent.
For those with a fourth-round pick the highest involved, there were 14 such trades, of which six met my criteria, one sort of did (again, I'll explain) and seven did not. Sticking with the 13 in which there isn’t debate, you have a success rate of 46.15 percent.
Yes, it may sound crazy that you have better success when the highest pick you give up comes in the later rounds, but as I've said, the lower the round your most valuable pick is, the lower your expectations for what you get in return. The higher your most valuable pick, the higher your expectations.
Now let's go over the trades that worked out for the teams in question.
1994 - Warren Moon, Oilers to Vikings: Despite finishing 12-4 for the 1993 season, the Oilers decided it was time to part ways with Moon, one of the more prolific passers of that era, but who was to turn 38 years old in 1994. The Vikings sent fourth and fifth-round picks to the Oilers, then went 10-6 with a playoff trip in Moon's first year with the team. Though they never got back to the playoffs again with Moon under center, it bought the Vikings some time to find their next guy.
1995 - Mark Brunell, Packers to Jaguars: The Jaguars were an expansion team under the guidance of Tom Coughlin and had veteran Steve Beuerlein as their starter, but showed interest in Brunell, a 1993 fifth-round pick who was Brett Favre's backup. The Jags sent a third-round pick to the Packers and it paid off. Brunell eventually took over as the starter that year, then the Jaguars followed their inaugural season with playoff trips in the next four. Brunell lasted nine seasons with the team, making this one of the best QB trades ever.
1994 - Steve Bono, Niners to Chiefs: Bono had modest success when he started a handful of games for the Niners, and he was eventually traded to the Chiefs for a fourth-round pick. Though the Chiefs may have anticipated that he would be a backup, he was named the starter in 1995 and exceeded expectations. The Chiefs went 13-3 and made the playoffs that year. In 1996, he started 13 games during a 9-7 season, but the Chiefs decided to move forward with Elvis Grbac as the starter and released Bono in 1997. Still, the trade worked out fairly well for the Chiefs.
1997 - Chris Chandler, Titans to Falcons: In 1996, the Titans drafted Steve McNair, who eventually replaced Chandler as the starter. Chandler was then traded to the Falcons after the season for fourth and sixth round picks. He lasted three seasons as the starter, but one of those seasons included a 14-2 season in 1998, capped with a trip to the Super Bowl.
2006 - Steve McNair, Titans to Ravens: A dispute between the Titans and McNair over access to the practice facilities led to McNair being dealt to the Ravens for a fourth-round pick in 2007. The Ravens finished 13-3 that year and made the playoffs. While injuries cut McNair's second season with the team short, it was still a solid return for a fourth rounder.
2008 - Brett Favre, Packers to Jets: OK, so you might quibble with this one, but the Jets, after sending a conditional fourth-round pick to the Packers for Favre, did finish with a 9-7 record. Unfortunately, they missed the playoffs, and I imagine everyone was expecting such a trip. My criteria, though, didn't require a playoff trip, but you may feel free to disagree with this one -- particularly after Favre supposedly retired, but was then released entirely from his contract, then came out of retirement to join the Vikings, the team he always wanted to play for after his split with the Packers.
2013: Alex Smith, Niners to Chiefs: In this case, though, you can't argue with the success, in which the Chiefs got Smith for a second-round pick, plus a conditional the following year, making him the starter for Andy Reid's first season with Kansas City. The Chiefs made the playoffs in four of Smith's five seasons as the starter (all with winning records), before they traded him to Washington (which we will cover later).
2019: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins to Titans: The Dolphins were in full rebuild mode in 2019 and wanted to move on from Tannehill, who was good from a statistical standpoint, but never got the Dolphins to the playoffs. The Titans sent fourth and sixth-round picks to acquire Tannehill, who appeared destined to be a backup behind Marcus Mariota. As fate would have it, Mariota was benched for Tannehill when the Titans were 2-4, then the team turned its fortunes around and went 7-3, made the playoffs and reached the AFC championship. In 2020, the Titans did even better, going 11-5 and winning the AFC South.
Then we come to the trades in which whether you think they are successes or not depends on how strict you are with my criteria. However, I suspect you'll find at least one in which you'll argue the team got a reasonable return.
2010 - Jason Campbell, Washington to Raiders: Washington went 4-12 in 2009 and decided to move on from Campbell, who had been the starter for four seasons. The Raiders sent a 2012 fourth-round pick to acquire Campbell, who started 12 games in 2010, with the Raiders winning seven but missing the playoffs. The Raiders actually finished 8-8 in 2010, so they didn't really have a winning record. However, if you only want to count the games Campbell started, you would call this a solid trade. The Raiders then went 4-2 in 2011, but Campbell's season ended because of injuries. Here, you can definitely argue that, if Campbell hadn't been injured in 2011, the Raiders never would have made that trade for Carson Palmer.
2015 - Sam Bradford for Nick Foles, Eagles and Rams: This one is more about the Eagles than the Rams, in which the two teams swapped quarterbacks, but the Rams only included a fifth-round pick in the trade, while the Eagles included a fourth and a 2016 second. The Eagles went 7-7 in Bradford's 14 starts, then he was re-signed after the season, only to be traded to the Vikings for a first before the 2016 season. Because the Eagles got that first in return for Bradford, I pulled this out as “debatable.” (For completeness sake, the Rams, meanwhile, went 4-7 in Foles' 11 starts, and after the Rams traded up for Jared Goff, Foles asked for his release and eventually got it.)
2017 - Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots to Niners: Here's a trade that's sure to generate a lot of debate. The so-called smart money was Garoppolo would eventually supplant Tom Brady as the starter, but that changed when the Niners sent a 2018 second-round pick to the Patriots in a 2017 midseason trade to acquire Garoppolo. He started the last five games of the season and the Niners won them all. Since then, Garoppolo has started just three games in 2018 and six in 2020, missing the rest with injuries. However, in 2019, he started all 16 games and the Niners reached the Super Bowl. On one hand, you might argue a healthy Garoppolo means the Niners have more playoff trips. On the other hand, the fact he's missed so many starts means you might argue he wasn't worth that second-round pick. It remains to be seen if Garoppolo will be the starter for 2021, but if he is and the Niners get a winning record — and especially if they make the playoffs — I’d say you could call it one that worked out. But if he’s cut this offseason, I wouldn’t.
2018 - Alex Smith, Chiefs to Washington: Though the Chiefs had plenty of success with Smith as starter, they had traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 and were ready for him to start. They agreed to send Smith to Washington for a third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller. Things started off well, with Washington going 6-3 with Smith as the starter, but a gruesome leg injury against the Texans ended his season, then a life-threatening infection following surgery put his career into question. He managed a comeback in 2020, but additional injuries limited him to eight games with six starts, though Washington made the playoffs. Only time will tell if Smith stays healthy for 2021. But given the circumstances surrounding Smith’s health, I wouldn’t call this a bad trade.
But while those trades are debatable in terms of their success, the rest of the trades that involved the highest pick in the second, third or fourth round aren't debatable in terms of the outcome, given the compensation dealt.
1993 - Boomer Esiason, Bengals to Jets: Esiason started 11 games in 1992, but the Bengals wanted to move forward with 1992 first-round pick David Klinger as the starter. He was traded to the Jets for a third-round pick, who went 8-8 his first year with the team, but then had back-to-back losing seasons, after which Esiason was released.
1994 - Tommy Maddox, Broncos to Rams: Drafted by Dan Reeves in 1992 as the heir apparent to John Elway, Reeves was fired after the 1993 season and the Broncos moved forward with Elway as the starter, while dealing Maddox to the Rams for a fourth-round pick. He lasted just one season with the team, attempting 19 passes in five games.
1997 - Heath Shuler, Washington to Saints: A first-round pick in 1994, Shuler is considered one of the bigger busts among quarterbacks taken in that round. He started 13 games in two seasons with Washington and threw 13 touchdown passes with 19 interceptions, then was benched for Gus Frerotte in 1996. Washington got a fifth-round pick in 1997 and a third in 1998 in a deal with the Saints, and he started just nine games before a foot injury spelled an end to his career.
1999 - Scott Mitchell, Lions to Ravens: Mitchell is considered the prime example of why one shouldn't overpay for a free agent quarterback with a small sample size of starts -- and we'll talk more about that in a later installment. The Lions eventually gave up on Mitchell, and the Ravens came calling, sending a 1999 third and a 2000 fifth to acquire him. He started just two games in one season for the Ravens.
1999 - Jeff Lewis, Broncos to Panthers: Perhaps the Panthers thought they could duplicate the success the Jaguars had with Brunell. Lewis, though, was a third-stringer in two seasons with the Broncos, but that didn't stop the Panthers from sending a third-round pick to acquire him. He played in just seven games in the next two seasons.
2004 - A.J. Feeley, Eagles to Dolphins: Feeley started five games for the Eagles in 2002 and they won four of those games, but the Eagles had no intentions of replacing Donovan McNabb as the starter. The Dolphins sent a second-round pick to the Eagles for Feeley, who didn't start until after the Dolphins went 1-9. They went 3-3 with Feeley as the starter, but he lost a competition the following season to Gus Frerotte and was ultimately sent to the San Diego Chargers for backup QB Cleo Lemon.
2004 - Mark Brunell, Jaguars to Washington: Injuries caused Brunell to miss multiple games in his final seasons with the Jags, so they opted to send him to Washington for a third-round pick. Washington did make the playoffs in 2005, but Brunell never played a full 16-game season in his three seasons with the team, and in two of those seasons, Washington had a losing record with him as the starter.
2004 - Drew Henson, Texans to Cowboys: Henson left college football in 2001 to pursue baseball full-time, but entered the 2003 NFL draft when things didn't go as expected. The Houston Texans drafted him in the sixth round, but Henson opted to try baseball one more season. When that didn't work out, he decided to take a chance on the NFL. The Texans, though, were moving forward with Matt Schaub and sent Henson to the Cowboys for a third-round pick. Henson appeared in seven games, starting one, but that was it for his time with the team, who moved forward with Drew Bledsoe as the starter and Tony Romo as the backup.
2005 - Trent Dilfer, Seahawks to Browns: Dilfer was backing up Matt Hasselbeck at the time and the Seahawks opted to send Dilfer to the Browns for a fourth-round pick, with the Browns intending for him to mentor Charlie Frye. Dilfer became the starter and the Browns went 4-7 in his 11 starts. A dispute with offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon led to him wanting out, and he was traded to the Niners after the season for a seventh-round pick and backup quarterback Ken Dorsey.
2006 - Daunte Culpepper, Vikings to Dolphins: After deciding not to sign Drew Brees as a free agent that year, the Dolphins acquired Culpepper from the Vikings for a second-round pick. Culpepper started just four games and had an apparent shoulder injury, which led to then-head coach Nick Saban benching him. The Dolphins traded for Trent Green (sending a conditional fifth to the Chiefs) after the season, then Culpepper asked for his release and got it.
2007 - Josh McCown, Lions to Raiders: McCown was the backup to Jon Kitna in 2007, but wanted the chance to start. The Lions sent him and wide receiver Mike Williams to the Raiders in a draft-day trade, getting a fourth-round pick in return. McCown won the starting job, but the Raiders went 2-7 in his nine starts. He left as a free agent for the Dolphins after the 2007 season.
2009 - Matt Cassel, Patriots to Chiefs: After Cassel took over for an injured Tom Brady in 2008 and the Patriots went 11-5 (though they missed the playoffs), the Pats put the franchise tag on Cassel, then sent him and linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Chiefs for a second-round pick. The Chiefs made the playoffs in 2010, but injuries led to Cassel missing seven games in 2011 and in 2012. In three of his seasons with the teams, the Chiefs lost more games with him as the starter than they won.
2010 - Donovan McNabb, Eagles to Washington: Mike Shanahan took over as head coach of the Washington Football Team in 2010 and the veteran quarterback he got his first year was McNabb, with the Eagles getting second and fourth-round picks in return. McNabb started 13 games but the team went 5-8 in those starts and he never seemed to be on the same page with Shanahan. He was traded to the Vikings the next season for a sixth-round pick.
2010 - Charlie Whitehurst, Chargers to Seahawks: Whitehurst was a restricted free agent at the time and had only appeared in two games in 2006, not attempting a single pass, then never appeared in a regular-season game for the next three. That didn't stop the Seahawks from agreeing to a deal with the Chargers to swap second-round picks that year, plus send a third in 2011 to the Chargers, to acquire Whitehurst. He started in just four games in the next two seasons. That included 2012, in which he started Week 8 after Tarvaris Jackson was injured, but in Week 9, he was benched after a poor start for Jackson despite the latter QB not fully recovered.
2011 - Kevin Kolb, Eagles to Cardinals: The Eagles had originally planned to go with Kolb as the starter after the McNabb trade, but Kolb suffered a concussion in the season opener. Michael Vick took over, and while Kolb took the job back when Vick suffered a chest injury, he lost the job back to Vick when the latter was healthy. The Eagles opted to trade Kolb in 2011, sending him to the Cardinals for a second-round pick and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Injuries continued to plague Kolb, who started 14 games in two seasons for Arizona, in which the team went 6-8, and he was cut in 2013.
2012 - Tim Tebow, Broncos to Jets: Though the Broncos went 7-4 in the 11 games Tebow started in 2011, his erratic play led to John Elway courting Peyton Manning in the 2012 offseason. When Manning signed, the Broncos dealt Tebow to the Jets for fourth and sixth-round picks. Tebow started two games but attempted just eight passes and was gone the following year.
2017 - Brock Osweiler, Texans to Browns: This trade involved a second-round pick, but I put it down under "involving a fourth rounder" because the second rounder was actually sent by the Texans alongside the quarterback. This, of course, was one of the most unusual trades ever, in which the Texans included that high pick simply to dump Osweiler's salary (I'll cover Osweiler's contract in a later installment). The Browns, though, sent a fourth-round pick to the Texans (and the Texans also included a sixth in the deal), then opted to cut Osweiler after training camp, meaning they essentially spent $17 million (Osweiler's salary that year) to acquire a second-round pick.
2018 - Tyrod Taylor, Bills to Browns: You can't really fault the Browns for making this trade, given that they needed a veteran in the fold in 2018. The price to get Taylor was a third-round pick. He started three games before injuries sidelined him, then No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield took over and Taylor played in just one game after that. He signed with the Chargers after the season.
2019 - Joe Flacco, Ravens to Broncos: The Broncos had given Case Keenum a two-year contract the year before and owed him $7 million in 2019, but decided to acquire Flacco for a fourth-round pick. Keenum was then sent to Washington and Flacco was named the starter to open the 2019 season. The Broncos went 2-6 in his eight starts, before a neck injury ended his season.
2019 - Josh Rosen, Cardinals to Dolphins: The Cardinals traded up in the 2018 draft to select Rosen, but finished with the No. 1 overall pick in 2019 and decided to take quarterback Kyler Murray. Rosen was dealt to the Dolphins after the first round for a second-round pick and a fourth in 2020. He played in just six games (three starts) in 2019.
2020 - Nick Foles, Jaguars to Bears: We'll discuss the Foles' contract with the Jaguars in a later installment, but it took just one season for the Jags to decide to move on. The Bears sent a fourth-round pick for Foles, who took over for Mitchell Trubisky as the starter for the 2020 season, but after seven starts, he lost the job back to Trubisky. The Bears made the playoffs, but I don't think anybody will credit QB play for that trip.
Finally, I won't go over all the QB trades in which the highest pick involved was no more than a fifth, because most of them were about finding backup QBs or taking a chance on a passer thought to be in decline. However, one trade bears special mention.
2013 - Carson Palmer, Raiders to Cardinals: After the Raiders' acquisition of Palmer from the Bengals failed to net any playoff trips, they pretty much decided they would take anything they could get for him. The Cardinals sent a sixth-round pick and a conditional seventh in 2014, while getting a seventh-round pick back, to acquire Palmer. The Cardinals went 10-6 in Palmer's first year as starter, then made the playoffs in 2014 and 2015-- though Palmer missed 10 games because of injuries in 2014. You can certainly argue the Cardinals would have still made the playoffs that year with Palmer starting all 16 games -- but even so, getting a 13-3 record in 2015 and a trip to the NFC title game made this an excellent trade for the Cardinals, and perhaps the best value trade ever for a quarterback.