Is Trading A First Or More For A Veteran QB A Good Idea?
Since the salary cap was instituted, 10 trades for a veteran passer have involved a first-round pick.
The need for quarterbacks in the NFL means teams are often willing to do whatever they can to find one. And before the 2021 NFL league year has officially started, we've seen two situations in which teams have agreed to trade them.
Matthew Stafford will go the Rams, in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick, two future firsts and Jared Goff. And, now, Carson Wentz will go from the Eagles to the Colts, in exchange for a 2021 third and a conditional 2022 second, which could become a first depending on circumstances.
I've already written about the Stafford trade and my thoughts about what to give up in a trade for Wentz, but I wondered how often trades for veteran quarterbacks have worked out, compared to methods such as signing one in free agency or trading up to draft one.
I started this exercise with the year 1992, because that's when a first-round pick for a veteran QB worked out pretty well for the acquiring team. That would be the Green Bay Packers, who sent a first-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for Brett Favre.
Favre, a second-round pick in the 1991 NFL draft, didn't take a regular-season snap his rookie year. The Falcons already had Chris Miller, who had his best season as a pro, and when the Packers looked for a quarterback to replace Don Majkowski, who was dealing with injuries, they made the deal with the Falcons.
It worked out pretty well for the Packers, who got 10 playoff trips in 16 seasons with Favre as quarterback, reached two Super Bowls and won one.
Soon after, though, that's when the NFL Players Association successfully got free agency implemented as we know it today, with the salary cap taking effect in 1994.
Though 1994 was actually the first year of real free agency, I thought I would include trades from 1993 and on, to compare the success rate of finding a starting QB through them, as compared to a trade up the draft board and to free agency. I wanted to ask the question: What is really the best route to take to find your starting quarterback?
In this part, I'll examine all trades for veteran QBs in which a first-round pick was involved -- and as you are about to find out, the results haven't exactly worked in favor of the teams who acquired them.
(Note: I didn't include the Eli Manning for Phillip Rivers trade that took place in the 2004 draft, because neither QB had taken an NFL snap yet. In essence, that trade was really the equivalent of a trade up the draft board.)
NFL Veteran QB Trades Involving A First-Round Pick
1993 - Joe Montana, Niners to Chiefs
The 49ers reached four Super Bowls under Montana, but he injured his elbow in the NFC championship game of the 1990 season. He missed all of 1991 and, by the time he was cleared to play in 1992, Steve Young had cemented himself as the starter.
The Niners put Montana on the trading block after 1992 and the Chiefs agreed to acquire him, sending a first-round pick to the Niners while getting a third-round pick. Though a first-round pick was involved, the draft compensation essentially amounted to a second-round pick.
Montana played two seasons with the Chiefs, who made the playoffs each year. However, Montan's health remained an issue and he retired in 1995. The Chiefs didn't get a lot in return, but didn't risk as much as it first appears, given that they got a relatively high pick back from the Niners.
1994: Jeff George, Colts to Falcons
Back in 1990, the Colts made a blockbuster deal with the Falcons to acquire the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. They sent their own first-round pick, a fourth-round pick, offensive tackle Chris Hinton and wide receiver Andre Rison.
After four seasons with no playoff trips, the Colts traded George to the very team they made that 1990 draft-day deal with, the Falcons. The Colts got first and third-round picks in 1994 and a conditional pick in 1996 that became a first-round pick.
The Falcons did reach the playoffs in 1995, but George clashed often with then-head coach June Jones. He played just three games in 1996 before the Falcons moved on, thus getting little in return for a significant amount of draft capital.
1995: Craig Erickson, Bucs to Colts
A fourth-round pick in 1992, Erickson started 15 games in 1993 and threw 18 touchdown passes with 21 interceptions. In 1994, he threw 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, but the Bucs had drafted Trent Dilfer seventh overall before the season and wanted to start him.
In April of 1995, the Colts agreed to send their 1996 first-round pick for Erickson, who started just three games for the Colts before an elbow injury sidelined him. He underwent Tommy John surgery, by which point the Colts had moved on. Who knows how Erickson would have done if not for the elbow injury, but the Colts paid a high price and got nothing.
2001: Trent Green, Rams to Chiefs
Green was expected to be the starting quarterback for the Rams in 1999, but was lost for the season to injuries. Kurt Warner was named the starter and led the Rams to back-to-back Super Bowl trips.
In 2001, the Rams agreed to send Green to the Chiefs for a first-round pick that year. It wasn't until 2003, though, that the Chiefs reached the playoffs for the first time with Green udner center. They made the playoffs again in 2005, but otherwise, the Chiefs had one .500 season and two losing seasons.
Green's final season with the team was 2006, in which he got a concussion and Damon Huard took over as the starter. He was then traded to the Dolphins in June of 2007 for a fifth-round pick. While one could say that the Chiefs got a decent return for that first-round pick that went to the Rams, the Chiefs probably hoped for more.
2001: Matt Hasselbeck, Packers to Seahawks
Another trade for a veteran QB in 2001 involved a first-round pick, but there's a catch: When the Seahawks sent their 2001 first to the Packers for their backup who had never started a regular-season game, the Packers sent their 2001 first to the Seahawks. The Seahawks also included a third-round pick, though, so that's really the compensation we're talking about here.
Still, because the trade included a first-round pick, I'll give you this one. And in this case, it turned out to be a good investment for the Seahawks, who made the playoffs five times in Hasselbeck's 10 seasons with the team and played in one Super Bowl.
Of course, if you're the type who believes that a trade involving a first-round pick doesn't count if you're really swapping spots in that round, you won't count this trade. I'll leave it up to you to decide if it counts, but I will tell you that I actually see the trade as the equivalent of a high third-round pick.
2002: Drew Bledsoe, Patriots to Bills
In 2001, Bledsoe signed a 10-year contract extension with the Patriots, but his time as the starter didn't last. A hit from linebacker Mo Lewis of the Jets sidelined him, then Tom Brady took the starting job and never lost it, even after Bledsoe stepped in when Brady was hurt during the AFC championship game.
Bledsoe was ultimately traded to the Bills for a 2003 first-round pick. He was the starter for three seasons, in which the Bills never made the playoffs. The Bills then released Bledsoe after the 2004 season, wanting to go with 2004 first-round pick J.P. Losman as the starter. I'll talk about Losman in a future installment of this series, but as for Bledsoe, the Bills didn't get the playoff trips they expected.
2007: Matt Schaub, Falcons to Texans
Here we go with another "first-round pick involved" trade in which the teams actually swapped first rounders. Schaub was the backup to Michael Vick at the time (and this trade happened prior to Vick's arrest and subsequent guilty plea in a dog fighting investigation), but Schaub showed promise in limited action and the Texans were interested.
Along with the swap of firsts, the Texans sent second-round picks in 2007 and 2008 to complete the trade. It took the Texans a while before they got to the playoffs under Schaub, but they made it 2011 -- however, that was with T.J. Yates as the starter after Schaub was lost to injuries.
But the Texans made it again in 2012, this time with Schaub starting all 16 games. However, Schuab struggled in 2013 and that was the end of his run with the Texans. The result was one playoff trip in seven seasons with Schaub as the starter, though one could argue the Texans would have made in 2011 if Schaub started all 16 games. Still, that's just two playoff trips for a trade involving a first-round pick.
2009: Jay Cutler, Broncos to Bears
After Josh McDaniels was named the Broncos head coach in 2009, he had a falling out with Cutler. The Broncos ultimately put Cutler on the trading block, and the Bears got him, sending their 2009 and 2019 firsts, a 2009 third and Kyle Orton, while getting a 2009 fifth back from the Broncos.
The Bears had made the playoffs in 2005 and 2006, reaching the Super Bowl the latter year, with the likes of Orton and Rex Grossman, so certainly Cutler would get them back to the playoffs after missing them in 2007 and 2008, right?
Well, it looked good in 2010 when the Bears reached the NFC title game, but that's when things started falling apart. Cutler got injured in the game, tight end Greg Olsen was traded in the offseason, coaches and general managers were fired and the vaunted defense was aging and players retired.
In a nutshell, the problem was that the Bears had a great defense at the time they acquired Cutler, but the offense had more issues than just the lack of a quarterback. They didn't have a true No. 1 wide receiver and their offensive line wasn't good, and by the time they got those issues addressed, Cutler's injuries mounted up and all the Bears got after 2010 was one more winning season (2012, but they missed the playoffs) in Cutler's eight seasons with the team.
2011: Carson Palmer, Bengals to Raiders
In 2011, the Bengals drafted Andy Dalton in the second round and Palmer reportedly wasn't happy about that. He held out to open the season and Dalton was respectable as a rookie. Still, the Bengals appeared stubborn about trading Palmer, until the Raiders came calling.
The Raiders, who just lost Jason Campbell to a season-ending injury, sent first and second-round picks in 2012 for Palmer, in the hopes that he would get them to the playoffs.
But the Raiders, who led the AFC West at the time of the trade, couldn't close out, then they went 4-12 the following season. Palmer was then sent to the Cardinals for sixth and seventh-round picks, while getting a seventh back, and we'll get to that trade in the next part. Needless to say, the Raiders gave up a lot for Palmer and got little in return.
2016: Sam Bradford, Eagles to Vikings
The 2016 season was odd as far as the Eagles were concerned. They re-signed Bradford to a two-year, then inexplicably gave perennial backup Chase Daniel a three-year deal and announced he would compete for the starting job. Then the Eagles traded up to get the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft and selected Carson Wentz.
This QB controversy didn't last, though, because the Vikings lost Teddy Bridgewater to a gruesome leg injury in training camp and were coming off a playoff trip the year before. They decided to send a first-round pick in 2017 and a conditional fourth-round pick to the Eagles for Bradford.
Bradford wasn't terrible in 2016, but the Vikings failed to make the playoffs. They did make it the following year, but that was with Case Keenum as the starter, because Bradford got injured in the season opener. People may not have blamed the Vikings for the trade at the time, but the playoff trip they sought didn't come from the QB they acquired.
What Have We Learned?
It's a small sample size, but out of the 10 trades involving a first-round pick, just one (Hasselbeck) resulted in more than two playoff trips (and the Hasselbeck trade netted a Super Bowl trip). If you exclude that one (and, by process, exclude the Schaub trade, since that also involved a swap of firsts), you don't have a single such trade since 1993 getting a team more than two playoff trips out of the veteran QB.
None of this means that the Stafford trade is guaranteed to flop, nor does it mean the same applies if, say, DeShaun Watson gets traded (and such a trade will involve multiple firsts). But if you want to offer a first-round pick for a veteran passer, and you expect a lot of playoff trips, the reality is,
But if your expectation is that a quarterback taken in the first round of the NFL draft should be a guy who gets you a lot of playoff trips -- and you expect that to be more than two -- then you should expect the same for a veteran QB who you acquire for at least a first-round pick.
And the reality is, since legitimate free agency and the salary cap have been introduced in the NFL, most teams who have given up a first for a veteran passer didn’t get what they expected
I won't tell you that this is the be all, end all, for discussions about the likes of Stafford and Watson, but if you think learning from the past is important to proper team building, then this lesson might make you think twice about sending a first-round pick for a veteran QB.
But how does this compare to trades for veteran QBs in which no first-round pick was involved? That will be the subject of my next installment.