Is The 2021 QB Draft Class Going to Be the Best Ever?
Five quarterbacks were taken in the first round in 2021. How have they done thus far and is this the best group ever among first-round selections?
The 2021 NFL quarterback draft class was touted by many as one that had the potential to be the best QB draft class ever, on par with the 1984 draft class that produced three Hall of Fame QBs and one other QB who played in a Super Bowl, among the six taken in the first round.
I've written this post prior to the Sunday afternoon slate of NFL games, so I don't have every performance for the QBs drafted in 2021 in those games. However, the 2022 data is mostly complete for those players as of this writing.
And when you consider there are theories about how much time you give an NFL quarterback before you decide when to move on from him, particularly when it comes to the rookie pay scale, it's worth examining where things stand with those QBs taken in the first round in 2021.
Before we get to that, I'll tell you about how I examine NFL quarterbacks and what I believe is necessary for them to ensure success.
The “Draft Your Guy” Theory
My personal theory is that, when it comes to taking a quarterback, you focus on who is "your guy" rather than a consensus top prospect among analysts. By focusing on "your guy," you maximize the chance that QB will succeed, because you have everyone in the building who is committed to developing the QB and figuring out what are the things to do to give him the best chance to succeed.
While there is merit to taking a QB in the first round because of the rookie pay scale, that's because the pay scale allows you to get QBs on a cheap contract. At the very least, you may have a competent backup.
The downside to that is, if all you do is keep drafting QBs, year after year, because they don't give you instant gratification, you are missing an important consideration: What is it about this QB that convinces you that he is the guy you can build around?
I go back to Josh Allen, from which evidence indicates that the Buffalo Bills identified him as "our guy." The Bills have kept the same head coach, general manager, and mostly the same coaching staff ever since they drafted Allen. While they haven't hit on every other draft pick or free agent, they've generally done well in identifying players that fit their philosophies and, in some cases, maximize Allen's talents.
A Brief Note About DYAR
Allen may have had accuracy issues in college and struggled as a rookie, but he has since developed into one of the top NFL passers. When one looks at passing DYAR as an example, he posted -534 DYAR as a rookie, then -21 in 2019.
While both years were negative, Allen showed improvement. He then broke out in 2020 with 1,469 DYAR. The last two years, he's posted DYAR of 705 and 984.
Some may argue that Allen's running ability helped, but that was no guarantee that he would improve as a passer. A QB who is a running threat but who can't fix his accuracy issues or his ability to read the field isn't going to make it.
Of course, DYAR doesn't paint a full picture of what a quarterback does. It doesn't necessarily reflect the talent around the QB, nor does it necessarily reflect the coaching a QB received. Nor can DYAR tell you anything about the QB's willingness to hold himself accountable.
However, DYAR provides a reasonable look at the QB overall and, from there, you can ask other questions about his play, ranging from coaching to attitude.
With all that in mind, let's look at the five quarterbacks taken in the first round of 2021, their situations and how they may be trending.
Trevor Lawrence
As a rookie, Lawrence posted -345 DYAR. Of course, in his rookie season, Urban Meyer was the head coach and everything points to Meyer having no clue what he was doing. The Jaguars were also rebuilding that season.
In 2022, Doug Pedersen took over as head coach and, after a slow start, Lawrence has improved. He posted 866 DYAR (not counting the final game against the Titans) and has shown more potential to be the top-rated passer that most analysts believed he would become.
The fact that Lawrence took a strong jump from his rookie season to his second season would indicate that he has a strong chance to be a successful NFL quarterback, possibly one who could be considered elite.
From a team-building standpoint, it remains to be seen how things turn out. The Jaguars spent a lot of money in 2022 free agency and are projected to be $5.3M over the cap. They will have to focus more on the draft, in which they have nine total picks.
As for Pedersen, who is in his second head coaching stint, time will tell if he can bring some consistency to the Jaguars. The same holds true for general manager Trent Baalke, whose final years with the 49ers weren't particularly good.
The Jaguars, in 2023, need to show they can go beyond winning a weak division and that they can take the next step toward becoming a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Much of that will come from Lawrence's continued progression, but he is on the right track.
Justin Fields
Considered by many to be the best QB prospect after Lawrence, Fields struggled as a rookie, posting -569 DYAR. The Bears, who traded up to get Fields, fired general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy.
In Fields' second season, he posted -324 DYAR. On one hand, he struggled again as a passer. On the other hand, he showed he can be dangerous in the running game, similar to Allen and Lamar Jackson.
We also need to consider that the Bears had done a poor job of team building under Pace and that first-year general manager Ryan Poles can correct that. The Bears had limited cap resources and draft picks in 2022, but they'll be better positioned in 2023, as they will have the most cap space of any team at $118M and have eight total picks, one a top-five pick (it was second overall going into Sunday's games.)
Fields has the potential to follow Allen's path, though with changes in both the front office and coaching staff. The Bears should be in position to better build around Fields, particularly if they are able to trade down with a team who really wants a QB in the 2023 draft.
My opinion of Fields was that he had the potential to be a top QB but he needed to go a team that truly believed in him. It doesn't appear the current Bears regime is giving up on him and will give Fields the chance in 2023 to show what he can do.
If Fields does improve in 2023 and manages a season similar to what Allen has in 2020, he could be the next QB that causes people to question the wisdom of giving up on a QB after one or two seasons. It would also lend more credence to the idea that, in order to maximize a QB's chances for success, you have to have the right coaching and team building in place, too.
Mac Jones
Jones had what you might call a respectable rookie season. He posted 620 DYAR, an indicator of a quality rookie season. However, plenty of people noted that Jones was limited as a passer.
We come to his second season in which his DYAR was -8 going into the final week. Some would call this regression while others would call this Jones' limitations getting exposed. Regardless, it's not a sign of a quarterback that's showing he can be the guy to build the team around.
The Patriots, of course, have had many years of success under head coach Bill Belichick. However, while things went well when Tom Brady was around, there were issues underneath the surface when it came to their drafting.
The Patriots opted to spend big in 2021 free agency. Whether that worked or not is up for debate, though I would call it a class in which they had a couple of hits, a couple of misses and the rest draw a shrug. They weren't wrong to allow JC Jackson to depart in free agency, when I believed they should at least have given him the franchise tag,
However, the Patriots still have issues to sort out with the roster overall and might with the play calling, too. They are in a position to improve the roster, given that are projected to have $54M in cap space (and get out of deals signed in 2021 that weren't worth the money) and have 11 total picks.
The question, though, is how the Patriots go about their team building process this offseason and how much of Jones' struggles are because of his play, the play calling or the talent around him. Regardless, 2023 is what will tell the tale about Jones.
Zach Wilson
Wilson struggled as a rookie, posting -68 DYAR in 13 games. Things didn't go much better for him this season, in which he posted -569 DYAR in nine games.
Wilson also sounded like he was full of excuses after a bad performance in Week 11 against the Patriots. It led to the Jets benching him for Mike White (though Wilson was back in the lineup for Weeks 15 and 16 after White was injured).
With Wilson, his issues sound like they have more to do with his willingness to hold himself accountable. However, there are those who pointed out that Wilson didn't play particularly well in 2019 while with BYU, then broke out in 2020 -- the same year that COVID-19 restrictions were in place and, thus, Wilson didn't always face opponents who were at full strength.
The Jets did signal that Wilson was "our guy" when they drafted him, which does indicate that the "our guy" approach isn't foolproof. However, one can also question whether or not the Jets have done the best job with free agency or if they had been reaching on certain players in the draft.
At any rate, Wilson isn't trending in the right direction at all. The Jets haven't indicated they plan to give up on him, but considering the reports that the Jets are linked to quarterbacks expected to hit free agency (notably Jimmy Garoppolo), it's hard not to look at Wilson as anything but a bust.
Trey Lance
The Niners gave up a lot of picks to move up the 2021 draft board to take Lance. It was another indication of a team targeting "our guy" and going to get him.
Lance didn't play much as a rookie, having not played his final year of college football amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Many analysts believed it was for the best for Lance to sit for a year and learn, though the Niners did work him into six games, two in which he started.
The Niners named him the starter for 2022, but he played just two games before a torn ACL ended his season. It took a while for the Niners to get on track with Garoppolo back under center, but that's what happened. And though they lost Garoppolo to an injury, Brock Purdy — the final player taken in the 2022 NFL Draft — has shown he can be a capable player in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Purdy, at the very least, has shown that the Niners don't need to keep Garoppolo next season However, the question remains about what this means for Lance.
My opinion is that it's best for the Niners to give Lance the chance to start in 2023. His sample size remains too small to say for sure if he's the long-term guy or not. Having Purdy in the fold at least gives the Niners a fallback option in case Lance doesn't show he can be the guy.
As far as where to put Lance at this point, he remains an unknown. The Niners do have a good roster in place but are projected to have $14.5M in cap space and will have to make decisions about key free agents. The Niners do have nine picks in the draft, though none until the third round.
I do think the Niners have done a good job of building the roster under Shanahan and John Lynch. Shanahan has also proven to be a quality head coach. Thus, the only question that remains is Lance's recovery from injury and whether he shows enough to demonstrate the Niners were correct to make that bold move to get him in 2021.
The Verdict
It's still too early to say where the 2021 draft class will go overall, but one can point to one success story thus far (Lawrence) and one trending bust (Wilson). In that sense, if we are using the 1984 class for comparison, Lawrence may be John Elway while Wilson may be Todd Blackledge.
But as for the other three, the jury is still out and 2023 is likely to tell us where things stand. In other words, the only correct answer to whether or not this is going to be the best QB draft class ever remains unanswered and won't be answered unless we go against those who believe that, with the rookie pay scale in place, you can't afford to be patient with a young QB.