Learning From Past NFL Trades

A team who wants DeShaun Watson shouldn't assume his unhappiness means you don't have to give up a lot in trade.

Things haven't gotten any better for the Houston Texans, with the report that DeShaun Watson has formally requested a trade. That news sent the NFL into a frenzy, with plenty of teams reportedly interested.

Should a trade happen, the question to ask is how much a team has to give up to acquire Watson.

Back in 2009, a young quarterback named Jay Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears, in which the Bears sent two first-round picks, a third-round pick and quarterback Kyle Orton, while receiving a fifth-round pick back from the team dealing Cutler, the Denver Broncos.

Alex Smith was the subject of later trades, the first in which he was sent from the San Francisco 49ers to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013 for a second-round pick and a conditional pick in 2014. Smith was then traded to Washington in 2018, who sent a third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs.

However, in Smith's case, he was traded when the team already had another QB on the roster. The Niners, at the time, had Colin Kaepernick and advanced to a Super Bowl with him running the offense. When the Chiefs later dealt Smith, they had moved up in the 2017 draft for the rights to select Patrick Mahomes.

We can see that a team may be more inclined to trade a QB if it already has a QB who can be the guy to build around, or if they can get a QB in return that they are content with for the time being.

Of course, a week ago, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, who sent a 2021 third, firsts in 2022 and 2023 and Jared Goff. Now reports have surfaced that Carson Wentz may be traded, despite Wentz coming off a dismal season.

But the fact Wentz may be dealt goes to show you how desperate teams are for a quarterback, which means the price for Watson is likely to be steep.

Could other trades that have happened in recent year affect the price for Watson? Though they are different positions, we can get some insight there into what factors into a potential trade.

Antonio Brown: The former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver became a major distraction to the team, to the point it was willing to send Brown to the Raiders in 2019 for third- and fourth-round picks while getting a fifth-round pick back.

However, while Watson may be requesting a trade, he isn't like Brown, in that many with the Steelers wanted him gone, while plenty with the Texans don't want Watson gone, even if he wants out.

Jadeveon Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue: Both players got the franchise tag from their respective teams -- Clowney from the Texans in 2019 and Ngakoue from the Jaguars in 2020. The Texans reportedly tried to trade Clowney to the Dolphins, but he wouldn't sign the tag. Much later, Clowney was dealt to the Seahawks for a third-round pick and two players.

Ngakoue never signed his tag, either, and was ultimately traded to the Vikings for a second-round pick and a conditional fifth. In his and Clowney's cases, both could only sign one-year deals with their new teams (because they were traded after the deadline to sign franchised players to long-term deals), which meant those teams had less incentive to give up a higher draft pick.

This certainly doesn't apply to Watson, who is under contract through 2025, after signing an extension just as the 2020 season got underway.

Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills: When Bill O'Brien was the Texans de facto general manager in 2019, and the Dolphins were exploring trade options for Tunsil, the two teams came to an agreement -- one that's considered a lopsided trade for the Dolphins.

The Texans sent two first-round picks (2020 and 2021) and a second-round pick in 2021 to the Dolphins, who also sent wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Texans. The Dolphins also included a 2020 fourth-round pick and each team included two backup players.

It was a lopsided trade because O'Brien thought that an offensive tackle was worth two firsts, and more or less gave up a third for Stills, who was a No. 3 receiver at best.

O'Brien had another lopsided trade that favored the acquiring team, when he sent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals, receiving a 2020 second-round and a 2022 fourth-round pick, plus running back David Johnson. The Cardinals also received a 2020 fourth-round pick. Perhaps you can argue that Johnson was worth a fourth rounder, but Hopkins was worth at least a first.

One would hope that, with O'Brien gone, the Texans will get more value for Watson. But if none of these trades reflect what the Texans might get, what else would?

Let's look at a few more recent trades that didn't involve QBs.

Stefon Diggs: There were a few reports that Diggs wanted out of Minnesota after the 2019 season. Still, the Vikings seemed reluctant to trade him.

The Bills approached the Vikings about Diggs and ultimately landed him for first, fifth and sixth round picks in 2020, while getting a seventh-round pick back. It was a good haul for the Vikings, who ultimately drafted Justin Jefferson with that first-round pick as Diggs' replacement.

While Diggs hinted he wanted out of Minnesota, his situation wasn't like Brown, because the Vikings didn't want to move him. That's why it took a first-round pick to be part of the package. The extra picks helped make the trade possible.

On the other hand, the Bills didn't give up more than one first rounder in the deal. That meant the Bills didn't necessarily overpay.

Jamal Adams: Another case of a player who made it no secret he wanted out, and the team in question not wanting to part ways with him. The New York Jets, even after Adams' request for a trade, hinted that they wanted two first-round picks for him.

A first-round pick might have been reasonable, considering that the Steelers gave that up to acquire Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. However, two firsts for a safety? That seemed too high.

However, the Seahawks sent exactly what the Jets wanted in the 2020 trade and then some, including a third-round pick in 2021 and Bradley McDougal, along with first rounders in 2021 and 2022, while getting back a 2022 fourth rounder. The Seahawks have a history of being aggressive in the trade market, but who would have expected that with Adams?

Still, you have the perfect example of a player who wanted to be traded, the team who traded him got a lot in return and the team who acquired him overpaid in the trade.

But this isn't the only trade which makes it clear that Watson won't be acquired for cheap.

Jalen Ramsey: Like Adams, Ramsey wasn't happy with his situation with the Jaguars in 2019. There could be arguments that he was a distraction in the locker room. Most of all, he was entering the fifth-year option of his first-round draft pick contract, meaning any team acquiring him would have to sign him to an extension.

None of that mattered to the Rams, though, who sent two first-round picks (2020 and 2021) and a 2021 fourth-round pick to acquire the cornerback. The Rams didn't get Ramsey extended until the 2020 offseason.

Once again, we have a case of a player who wasn't happy with his team, wanted out, and that team still managed to get a good haul in return.

Khalil Mack: Another blockbuster trade came when Mack wanted an extension from the then-Oakland Raiders, who appeared to be set on having him play out the fifth-year option on his rookie deal that took effect in the 2018 season.

Mack went on the trading block and the Raiders found a trading partner. The Chicago Bears sent several draft picks to the Raiders, which included first-round picks in 2019 and 2020, a 2019 sixth-round pick and a third-round pick in 2020. The Raiders sent a 2020 second-round pick back to the Bears to complete the trade.

It didn't matter that Mack was holding out for an extension -- all that mattered was he was a coveted pass rusher and the Bears were willing to get him. The Bears then agreed to an extension with Mack.

Knowing that we have three players who weren't happy with something about their situations, and that those teams still got a lot in return, should tell you that you won't get Watson for a bargain deal -- unless you think that the Texans are going to behave like O'Brien (and I don't believe it happens with Watson).

Of course, you also have to consider how much those three trades benefitted the acquiring teams. The Bears have made the playoffs two of the past three seasons, but haven't had consistent QB play. The Rams failed to make the playoffs when they acquired Ramsey, though they made it this past season -- and, as with the Bears, they haven't had consistent QB play. (We'll see if things change with Stafford.)

The Seahawks do have a quarterback, but for the cost to acquire Adams, they really needed to get to the NFC championship, which didn't happen.

It's clear that any team who acquires Watson is going to expect multiple playoff trips. Watson is certainly a QB who can elevate a team's play, but he's not the type of QB who can put a flawed team on his shoulders and take it to the playoffs, every single year.

That means, while Watson would certainly upgrade the QB position for the majority of NFL teams, the question to ask is this: How confident are you that you have a good supporting cast around him, that you can afford to give up lots of draft capital?

Another question to ask: If the Texans ask for current players on your roster, particularly younger players, how confident are you that Watson will make up for what you've lost? Bear in mind the Texans didn't build the team well around him in 2020, and the end result was a last-place finish in the AFC South.

We'll find out for sure if Watson does get traded -- even with his request, there's no guarantee he will be. But if it does happen, the draft pick package is going to be bigger than any trade in recent history.

And for whichever team acquires Watson, the expectations will always be "playoffs or bust."