Let's Talk Trading, Folks

NFL trades are fun to discuss, but you need to know what teams consider, to understand how they happen.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the possibility of certain NFL quarterbacks being traded and what one might expect to give up in return.

The Detroit Lions have since been reported that they will part ways with quarterback Matthew Stafford. While I was wrong that the Lions wouldn't trade Stafford, the talk that the Lions will seek at least a first-round pick for him indicates that they he won't come cheap.

Talk still persists about DeShaun Watson and his situation with the Texans. It's possible things settle down, depending on what happens with the head coaching position. However, if things get worse between the Texans and Watson, this could be another situation in which I said I didn't expect a trade, but it still comes at a high price.

So what sets the asking price for players when they become available in trade? An obvious factor is that the more suitors you have, the more you can drive up the price. But there are other factors that might not be evident upon first glance, and they can include the following.

Does the team really want to trade the player?

We hear stories about teams who trade players because the player has become a distraction. However, that's not always the case -- sometimes the "distraction" factor is exaggerated by those who report it.

In the case of Antonio Brown and the Steelers, the evidence was strong that Brown was becoming a distraction. That's not the case, though, with players such as Stefon Diggs and Jalen Ramsey, who weren't happy with their situations, but were players that the teams didn't really want to trade.

If a team doesn't want to part ways with a player, the team can ask for more, even if the player isn't happy with his situation. However, a team that finds a player truly is a distraction will be more inclined to take what it can get.

What position does the player play?

Quarterback is a premium position and demands the most in a trade. Pass rusher comes next, followed by the contingent of wide receiver, cornerback and offensive tackle.

Positions such as interior offensive lineman, off-ball linebacker and safety aren't premium positions and, in theory, shouldn't net a lot of compensation in return.

What becomes of the situation of the team trading the player?

A team trading away a proven quarterback is going to be in a worse position than, say, a team who trades away a wide receiver but has plenty of other receivers on the roster. When it comes to QBs, it’s particularly true if your QB is the main reason why people would want to play for or coach your team, as is the case with the Texans and Watson.

There's also the question of the salary cap -- a team that gets no cap benefit will likely want more in return, especially if the team doesn't want to trade the player. But a team that's pushing hard to gain cap space or dump salary will have to take less.

What does the team have to offer in return?

If a team wants to acquire a top quarterback, but has a promising young QB to offer in return, that team is in better position to make the trade than the team who has an aging QB.

A team who has more than one first-round pick in a current draft can offer more in trade than a team who has to offer a future first-round pick. One thing to remember about draft picks is that a pick in the current year is worth more than a pick in a future year in the same round, because you know when that pick will be, whereas you are guessing in the future.

Those that argue about teams who are confident in their drafting abilities are thinking about results, which you can't predict when a trade is completed. You should only base things on what you know at the time, not what you think will happen in the future.

How does the acquiring team improve its position?

Obviously, a team that gets a proven QB is upgrading when it doesn't have a proven QB. For other positions, teams have to ask how this player acquistion makes a difference in terms of its season aspirations.

A team that believes the player is the missing piece to becoming a playoff contender will be inclined to give up more. The same applies to a playoff contender who sees the player as the missing piece to getting to the Super Bowl.

How much control does the acquiring team have over the player in the long term?

The rule of thumb is that players in the final year of a contract don't generate as much in return as a player with multiple years left. There is an exception to that, in which the acquiring team signs the player to an extension.

But if you talk about a player, say, under the franchise tag, you won't get as much in trade if the team can only sign the player to a one-year deal, as opposed to a long-term deal.

This is why the Texans didn't get much for Jadeveon Clowney and the Jaguars didn't get much for Yannick Ngakoue, because the teams who acquired them could only sign the player to a one-year deal at the time they were acquired. Had the teams made deals back when the tag was first applied, they are in a position to get more in return, because acquiring teams can sign the players to long-term deals.

The Actual Trade Market

As we've seen, there are exceptions to these rules, which usually result in a team that is aggressive in acquiring a player it likes. But when those exceptions come along, teams are in a position to ask for more, especially if they know that a team who is aggressive in trading for players has entered the discussion.

In my next Substack, I'll talk about some of the trades that have taken place in recent years and what factors appeared to be driving the price.