NFL Midseason: Where Do Teams Stand?
And how accurate were my preseason predictions, anyway?
Hey, didn't this used to be a Substack about the NFL and the salary cap?
Seriously, I thank those of you who stuck it out through my comic book geekery side for the past few weeks but, now that we are at the halfway point of the season, it's time we get back to the NFL.
You will recall my preseason predictions about where NFL teams would finish within their divisions. Now it's time to look where things actually stand.
When it came to my decisions about where to place teams in tier, I utilized Aaron Schatz's DVOA rankings, noted which teams have lost talent to injury and incorporated my own preseason expectations. In the third case, there are instances in which I stand by what I said then, but in other cases, I acknowledge where my expectations have not panned out.
I didn't go into much detail about the playoff locks because I would be repeating myself in some instances, but the teams I have as playoff locks are good in all three phases of the game for the most part. The teams I wrote more about are the teams that are in the playoff hunt but are lacking in ways that will keep them from making the Super Bowl.
From there, I kept my writing brief, with a "sum it up" about the teams I have in contention for a top-five draft pick.
Next week, I may talk more about the NFL and midseason awards, but for now, let's look at how I see things with the teams.
Bills, Ravens, Chiefs: These three AFC teams are consistent in all phases of the game, though the Ravens could be better defensively.
The Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, may be the most consistent team but the Bills are getting there. When it comes to the Ravens, they have the best offense in the NFL but the question is how good of a job the defense can do in playing complementary football.
But these are the three teams that should be the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The question, of course, is which one that will be. At this point, I still have the Chiefs as the favorite, but if the Ravens can improve defensively, they might be the biggest threat to keeping the Chiefs from three-peating.
Lions, Packers: Here we have the two best teams in the NFC at this point. Both are in the NFC North, which is easily the best overall division in the NFL.
The Lions may be the better team at this point, because they are good in all three phases of the game. The Packers aren't as good on special teams, the phase that gets overlooked but plays an important role.
Even with the season-ending injury for Aidan Hutchinson, I currently have the Lions as the best bet to win the NFC, but the Packers could have something to say about that if they keep improving.
Steelers: Probably the best bet to win a wild card berth in the AFC. They could steal the AFC North title from the Ravens if things fall into place, though.
With the Steelers, they are one of many examples of a team that is playing well on defense and special teams, but the offense isn't that good. But the Steelers have one of the best coaches in the NFL — and, yes, people who are still doubting Mike Tomlin need to recognize he's one of the best.
However, the issues on offense are what keep the Steelers from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Texans: They will most likely win the AFC South. They have a good defense and special teams but the offense isn't as good. That's not because CJ Stroud is struggling, though.
The Texans have had several injuries to receivers, which hasn't helped matters. They have gotten help in the running game from Joe Mixon but they need to get their injured receivers healthy or get others to step up.
Still, the Texans are a quality team overall and should have no trouble winning the division. But the offense's current struggles are what keep them out of contention for the AFC title.
Chargers: Here's another team with a quality defense but is struggling on offense. Right now, I have them as the next best bet for an AFC wild card berth.
For one, that defense can do a lot of good things, even with Joey Bosa not in the lineup. Second, their special teams has improved a lot. The Chargers used to be bad on special teams but that's no longer the case.
When it comes to the offense, though, they lack playmakers, particularly among the receivers. Though they probably will claim a wild card spot, they still have much work to do to become a Super Bowl contender.
Commanders: They are probably the biggest surprise among NFL teams. Their offense is really good! Jayden Daniels is likely to walk away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and Kliff Kingsbury has shown he can still be a good offensive coordinator in the NFL.
The issue the Commanders has is their defense — it's below average. While offense may be more valuable to winning NFL championships than defense these days, you still need your units to play complementary football. That isn't happening yet with the Commanders.
The good news is that the Commanders know they have their quarterback and offensive playmakers, so this coming offseason, they can concentrate on the defensive side of the ball. But an NFC title this season remains a long shot.
Eagles: Here's a team that could find a way to win the NFC East, despite not standing out in any phase of the game. The Eagles are above average on offense, average on defense and average on special teams.
Considering the state of some of the other teams in the NFC, though, the Eagles might be able to slip into a wild card berth. That's even with the NFC North being a strong overall division.
With that said, my understanding is that the Eagles coaching staff is on notice that it needs to get to the playoffs to stick around. We'll see what happens there, but for now, I think the Eagles will do enough to get at least a wild card berth.
Vikings: They have the best defense in the NFL, bottom line. There's a reason why Brian Flores is getting talked up as a head coaching candidate — his defense is excellent and on pace to be historically dominant.
The offense, though, isn't that good. Sam Darnold is in another season in which he starts off well but can't keep it going. The offense is likely what will keep the Vikings from winning the NFC North.
But let's give the Vikings credit, not just for the defense and Flores' job, but the work Kevin O'Connell has done as head coach. It's why I would expect the Vikings to get a wild card berth, assuming Darnold doesn't implode down the stretch.
Falcons: They would be the favorite to win the NFC South at this point. Going into the season, I didn't think the offense would be that good but the offense is getting it done for the most part.
On defense, while the Falcons are better than they were last year, they still aren't good enough. The defensive unit is what keeps the Falcons from being anything more than a divisional favorite.
I will say it's not a given the Falcons will win the division, but the reason I have them as the favorite brings me to the next team.
Buccaneers: I would have the Bucs as the favorite to win the NFC South because their offense has been better overall than the Falcons. But the problem is that the Bucs have lost multiple players to injuries and, now, the question is how the Bucs will ride that out.
On defense, the Bucs aren't that good and it hasn't helped that there have been key injuries on that unit, too. Again, if everyone stayed healthy, this would be a different story.
With that said, I do think Todd Bowles does a better job with coaching than some people give him credit. The coaching may be enough to keep the Bucs in the divisional hunt.
Niners: They are the best team in the NFC West but the question here is how much injuries will hold them back.
Losing Brandon Aiyuk and not having Christian McCaffrey in the lineup is going to make things difficult for the offense. I give Kyle Shanahan a lot of credit for keeping the offense competitive but it's going to be a challenge to keep that up if players keeping getting injured.
If anything is going to keep the Niners on top of the NFC West, it's the defense. They have one of the better defenses in the NFL. But it's the injuries on offense that may keep the Niners from returning to the Super Bowl.
Seahawks: The Seahawks are doing a better job than I expected. The offense remains a quality unit, though there have been a few players dealing with injury. But give credit to Geno Smith, who continues to play well even with a new offensive coordinator.
The defense is strictly average but, with the Niners dealing with injuries, the defense may be good to help the Seahawks win the division. The Seahawks are also solid on special teams.
There's a chance the Seahawks could claim a wild card spot but they are certainly not out of the NFC West race.
I'll stick to thumbnail examinations of the rest of the teams.
Bengals: Of all the league average teams, the Bengals may have the best chance of clinching a wild card spot. The offense is really good but the defense is below average. If anything keeps them out of the playoffs, the defense will be it.
Bears: They are an improved team and the defense is playing well. The offense, though, isn't where it needs to be yet. They have a shot at the playoffs but it will come down to how tiebreakers go with the likes of the Eagles, Vikings and Seahawks, assuming none of those three teams win their divisions.
Broncos: Of all the teams with a top defense and special teams, they are the one being held back the most by the offense. The biggest problem is Bo Nix having a bad first half in the majority of games. That has to stop if the Broncos want to have a shot at the playoffs.
Colts: They may be the poster child for what a league-average team looks like. Their offense is strictly average, their defense is below average and their special teams is above average. I thought they would take steps toward winning the division but that hasn't happened yet.
Jets: I believe a number of analysts overrated this team going into the season. No, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been a bad quarterback but he's not the same QB he once was. It's OK to say Rodgers is in decline when his play was elite prior to his injury but is now inconsistent. On top of that, neither the defense nor special teams is good. They aren't out of the playoff hunt yet, but I'm not betting on making the playoffs.
Cowboys: I can't figure them out. One year the Cowboys look really good, the next year they look like a major disappointment. No, the issues with the Cowboys aren't solely because they didn't sign Derrick Henry, so please stop with that talking point. I will note the Cowboys have a great special teams but the offense and defense are far from it. Some of it may be because of injuries, but some of it is on the coaching, and not just on head coach Mike McCartney.
Dolphins: One of the three teams decimated by injuries, though the Dolphins might improve now that Tua Tagovailoa is back. I have mixed feeling about him returning to the field, though. If he gets injured again, the best thing the Dolphins can do is put him on IR and figure out how to bounce back in 2025.
Saints: It's hard to believe the Saints were once considered one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But the injuries piled up and they have been terrible. The thing that worries me is that everyone with the organization will tell themselves they are still just a few players away from a deep playoff run if only it hadn't been for the injuries. They were going to have to do a ton of restructures in the offseason, anyway, but they could ride them out if they sat out free agency in 2025. Now I worry that they won't.
Rams: Another team that took a big hit with injuries, but they have another issue: Their Super Bowl window has officially closed and it's time for the rebuild to begin this offseason. While it's easy to make fun of Les Snead and his "f them picks" remark, the truth is, when he trades early picks away, he counters by trading down in later rounds. I've learned to admit that Snead is a good general manager and I would expect him to recognize that it's time to turn the page this coming offseason.
Cardinals: While they are 3-4, I'm not convinced they're going to make the playoffs. While the offense is decent, the defense is bad and the special teams is mediocre. They strike me as a team that is still a year away from being a playoff contender. However, they are the team that could be the biggest spoiler when it comes to deciding playoff fates for other teams.
Raiders: They are not a good team but there is some talent there, enough that they could steal a couple of wins from teams who are trying to make the playoffs. The biggest need is obviously at quarterback but they need more playmakers on offense and some help for Maxx Crosby, who is an elite player but can't carry the defense by himself.
Giants: Another team that needs QB help but is in position to play spoiler for teams trying to make the playoffs. I don't think there needs to be a regime change for the Giants in the offseason (in my preseason predictions, I wondered if they would do that) but they do need to draft a QB in 2025, even if it's not the greatest QB class. Their defense is league average, so they do have something to build upon there.
The bottom five: The Patriots have an excuse for being here — they are a rebuilding team. The Browns might get out of the doldrums with Jameis Winston at QB but it's clear that the DeShaun Watson trade and contract were horrible moves. The Titans need to quit chasing after free agents and figure out their QB situation first. The Jaguars need a regime change because, while they have some talent, they aren't doing a good job of coaching or overall roster building. As for the Panthers, there's the old saying about what mothers tell you if you don't have anything good to say.