Which Quarterbacks Will Dominate Offseason Extension Talks?

The QBs still under contract for 2022 are likely to be the ones that get the most attention when talking new deals.

When it comes to new quarterback contracts, the ones that may draw the most attention aren't for those who will be free agents in 2022, but those who could become free agents in 2023.

There are three starting quarterbacks on rookie deals who are eligible for extensions next year, plus six who will enter the final years of their contracts and might get extensions.

It's these quarterbacks where most of the talk about "how much is he worth" is likely to take place. Sure, a QB like Jameis Winston or Teddy Bridgewater could get paid well by a desperate team, but it's the ones who won't hit free agency in 2022 who will likely draw more attention.

Let's look at each of these quarterbacks, starting with the three on draft pick contracts, then consider the six veterans with deals that expire after 2022. In each case, we'll ask the question about how much each of them are worth.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens

Plenty of speculation surrounded an extension for Jackson this past offseason, namely whether he or two fellow 2018 draft picks, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, would be the first to get extended. Allen was the first, setting new marks for full and total guarantees.

Jackson and the Ravens didn't come to terms on an extension, and this season, we've seen him play well early on, but as injuries piled up, Jackson arguably had to take a bigger role, but wasn't able to keep his level of play going. He then got injured and his replacement, Tyler Huntley, has shown he can be a capable player.

With Jackson entering the fifth-year option of his draft pick contract ($23.1M for 2022), the talk about an extension will rise again. The question is how much the Ravens should pay him.

I don't think Jackson has reached a level of play that warrants a contract setting new records in full and total guarantees like Allen did. He's had one elite season thus far, but his play otherwise suggests he is a good, but not elite, QB. It's possible that's why the Ravens haven't come to terms with him on an extension, as they are asking whether or not his contract should re-set the market.

Baker Mayfield, Browns

Mayfield has shown, at times, that he can be very good, and at times, that he isn't so good. Between coaching changes, injuries and some issues with the roster, Mayfield hasn't quite developed into a top quarterback.

He did play well enough his first three years for the Browns to pick up his fifth-year option, which comes in at $18.8M in 2022. That's a salary one can argue that an average starting QB should get.

I don't think anyone will argue that Mayfield should re-set the market when it comes to an extension, and some will say he shouldn't be extended at all. That's why I wouldn't expect Mayfield to get a new deal in 2022.

After 2022, though, the possibility exists that Mayfield could get the franchise tag -- particularly if he has a strong season in 2022. If that were to happen, we'd be asking the question about just how much Mayfield is worth and whether the Browns should commit to him.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Murray started his third season well, throwing 17 touchdowns with five interceptions in the Cardinals' first seven games, in which the Cardinals won them all. The Cardinals then lost to the Packers and Murray, who threw two interceptions, was injured.

Since his return from injury, Murray has thrown three touchdowns to three interceptions in the last three games and the Cardinals, who looked like a favorite to claim the top seed in the NFC playoffs, are watching those hopes slip away.

How good is Murray? He showed, prior to injury, that he can be very good. But since his return, he hasn't looked as good, plus the Cardinals lost wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to injury, forcing Murray to do more with less, so to speak.

I believe the Cardinals will pick up his fifth-year option, but it wouldn't surprise me if they hold off on an extension in 2022. They need to see what he does next season to figure out if his recent play can be attributed to his health and the loss of Hopkins, or if he simply couldn't keep up the pace he was at to start the season.

Now we come to the veterans up for extensions.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

I've already talked about Rodgers' situation, in which the Packers either need to extend or trade him, given their cap situation. Regardless of what happens, Rodgers is in the final year of his contract, so wherever he plays, an extension has to be discussed.

Let's say the Packers keep Rodgers. A three-year extension to 2025 would make sense, as that allows the Packers to lower his cap hit. He's due a $26.4M base salary, so converting some of that into a signing bonus lowers his cap hit.

However, there's the question of how much cash they should pay him in 2022 and how much they should guarantee in future seasons. If the Packers extend Rodgers, he'll want to know they are committing to him for multiple seasons.

I don't think the Packers (or any team, for that matter) will have to set new benchmarks for QBs in an extension. Most likely, a deal that keeps his APY salary around $26M, but gives him a good chunk of cash in 2022 and guarantees his 2023 salary, is what Rodgers will get. All that needs to be asked is how much money the team will guarantee for him.

Matthew Stafford, Rams

Acquired in a trade with the Lions earlier this year, Stafford is on pace for a 40-touchdown season. Given that he'll be 34 years old next season, it's likely he'll be in line for one more significant contract.

The Rams are very much in "win now" mode, having traded away so much draft capital in their pursuit of a Super Bowl. Thus, they are likely to be in a position in which they'll have to extend Stafford -- and it may very well happen early, given that the Rams don't have much cap space to work with for 2022 ($3.3M with 45 players under contract).

Stafford is due a $12.5M base salary with a $10M roster bonus and has a void year for 2023. An extension would convert the roster bonus into a signing bonus, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Stafford get additional money beyond the $22.5M he's set to receive.

The Rams gave up first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to acquire Stafford, so they will have to treat him like he's their long-term guy. While he's looked good this year, the question of how much the Rams should commit to him likely gets answered in the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Cousins got a three-year deal in 2018 from the Vikings in which nearly every penny was fully guaranteed. The Vikings then needed cap space in 2020, so Cousins signed an extension that kept him through 2022.

Cousins may be the epitome of good, but not elite, quarterback. He can post statistics that suggest he is an ideal QB to build around but he doesn't have the playoff track record to back it up.

The Vikings have to be careful with extending Cousins this offseason, because they need to ask themselves if they are truly a team that is just a few players away from being a top playoff contender (as opposed to one who pushes for a wild card berth) or if they need to enter a soft rebuild.

If they believe they are the latter, they shouldn't extend Cousins -- but even if they think they are the former, they need to ask if Cousins has reached his ceiling. They're already committed to paying Cousins $35M in 2022, and need to ask themselves how much longer they are willing to keep committing that type of money to him.

Derek Carr, Raiders

It seems every year since Jon Gruden came back to coach the Raiders, people wondered how much longer Carr would be with the team. Gruden has since departed (a story unto itself), but the questions about how much longer Carr will be the Raiders are likely to come up again.

My belief is that the Raiders are likely to stick with Carr in 2022 -- but what about after that? He enters the final year of his deal and will receive $19.7M in base salary -- an amount that some would say fits a QB of his talents.

Given that Carr will be 31 years old next season, he's likely looking for one more big payday. But given that Carr is similar to Cousins, in that he can post numbers suggesting he's a QB you can build around but lacks the playoff track record to back it up, is it worth paying him a significant sum?

I imagine his fate with the Raiders will be determined after the 2022 season, but it's certainly possible he hits the open market in 2023, at which point we may find out what other teams think he's really worth.

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Some wondered if Garoppolo might be a cap casualty in 2021, but the Niners made no such move. Then they traded up in the 2021 draft and selected Trey Lance with the No. 3 overall pick, bringing back the questions about how much longer Garoppolo had with the Niners.

The Niners are now making a playoff push and Garoppolo, while not posting elite numbers, has been a steady performer. However, he's due $24.2M in 2022 and the Niners are almost certain to want Lance to start next season.

Depending on what happens the rest of the season and in the playoffs, the Niners will likely be able to trade Garoppolo. Given that Garoppolo is an average QB at best, I wouldn't give up more than a fourth-round pick for him.

Assuming he is traded rather than cut, an acquiring team needs to avoid extending Garoppolo. He needs to be treated as a one-year bridge QB, but with the possibility he could be extended if he plays well in 2022. You just have to watch how much you pay, because Garoppolo is not a QB who should be re-setting the market any time soon.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers

This one is simple enough from one standpoint: Brady will decide if he wants to return to play in 2022 and, if so, takes a one-year extension to lower his cap number, currently at $18.3M.

Brady did get a sizable cash payment for 2021 ($40M, which was spread out over 2022 and three void years) so it's likely he will get additional cash beyond the $8.9M base salary he's due in 2022. The question will be how much cash he'll get, because the Bucs will have to be careful how much dead money they spread out over future seasons.

By the way, Brady's contract is a good example of why you shouldn't read too much into APY salary. While APY says he's getting $25M per year, he got $40M this year in a signing bonus with void years added. Remember that cash spent tells you more about what a player gets in a current year than APY salary does.