Is Free Agency Really Where You Can Find Your QB?
While there have been a couple of success stories in finding QBs in free agency, there have been many more bad signings.
I've talked about whether or not it makes sense to trade for a veteran quarterback, whether it's a first-round pick involved or a lower pick involved, or whether it makes sense to trade up in the first round to get one. We've seen mixed results, in which the odds aren't high, but suggest it's better to look for value in a trade.
But there's another avenue one can take: Free agency.
I examined trades for QBs and trades up the draft board since 1993, because that was when the NFL had true free agency for the first time. The question, though, is how do those compare to pursuing a free agent quarterback?
First, it's important we distinguish between a QB signed to be the starter or the backup. It's not unusual to see backup QBs hit free agency, but starters are another matter. In most cases, when teams have a clear starting QB, they want to keep him for the long term and he almost never hits free agency.
Second, we have to remember that the money paid to quarterbacks when free agency first came to the NFL was much lower than what is paid to QBs now. Still, there are certain deals that were made in which it was clear the team wanted the player to be the starter.
I looked at free agent signings since 1993 and focused on those who left their previous teams to join others, with the team signing the QB to a deal that made it clear he was to be the starter -- even if it was just for the short term (though I include one backup signing that stands out as being a large overpay).
I judged a signing by a simple standard: Did the team get a winning season or better for at least half the contract's duration? If so, you can put it down as a good signing, but if not, it doesn't -- and it goes down as a really bad signing if the QB doesn't finish out the contract at all. Bonus points are given if the team makes the playoffs with the QB starting, especially if they go multiple times or reach the Super Bowl.
Let's examine those signings that worked out great for the teams in question.
2006: Drew Brees signs with the Saints.
Here, we have a definite winner among free agent signings. Brees had spent five years with the Chargers, who were intent on going with Phillip Rivers as their starter after acquiring him in a draft-day trade in 2004.
Brees entertained offers from the Dolphins and Saints, but the former team had concerns about his shoulder. The Saints didn't, opting to give him a six-year, $60M contract.
The rest, as they say, is history. Brees became one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, throwing for at least 4,000 yards in his first 12 seasons with the Saints at least 25 touchdowns in his first 11. The Saints had winning seasons in nine of his seasons as the starter and won a Super Bowl.
2012: Peyton Manning signs with the Broncos.
Manning's success with the Colts is known by all NFL fans, but in 2010, neck surgery sidelined him for the season. The Colts finished with the No. 1 overall pick and decided to part ways with Manning, because Andrew Luck was entering the draft and the Colts wanted him instead.
Manning was courted by several teams and chose to sign with the Broncos, getting a five-year, $96M contract. The Broncos made the playoffs four straight years, got to two Super Bowl and won one (albeit with a dominant defense), before Manning announced his retirement.
This goes down as a winner, but it's worth asking how history would have changed if Manning hadn't missed the 2010 season.
2020: Tom Brady signs with the Buccaneers.
Few could have imagined Brady -- the quarterback many call the greatest of all time -- deciding to leave the Patriots, but that's exactly what happened in 2020 when his contract expired.
The Buccaneers came calling and gave Brady a two-year, $50M contract, in the hopes that he'd get them to the playoffs.
They got that and more, as the Bucs entered as a wild card and made it all the way to the Super Bowl, in which they surprised everyone by dominating the Chiefs. We'll see what happens in 2021, but one Super Bowl win in exchange for a two-year contract is certainly a great deal.
Then there are a few signings I included, in which the intent was for the quarterback to be the backup, but later became the starter and did some good things. Feel free to debate whether or not these signings are thus winners.
1998: Vinny Testaverde signs with the Jets.
After stints with the Buccaneers and Browns (the latter moved to Baltimore in 1996 and became the Ravens) that didn't pan out, Testaverde signed a two-year, $8.7M contract. However, he entered the season as the backup.
Starter Glenn Foley lasted just two games before he was benched for Testaverde. The Jets then went 12-1 in the games that he started and reached the AFC Championship game.
Because Testaverde was signed to be the backup, it depends on how strict on my criteria you are to say whether or not this was a winner. It did lead to the Jets moving forward with Testaverde as the starter (and a big extension for him), in which the Jets got two more winning seasons and reached the playoffs again in 2001.
2001: Jon Kitna signs with the Bengals.
Kitna started 22 games in four seasons with the Seahawks and was mostly average in terms of his play. The Bengals, though, were looking for a veteran backup who could push Akili Smith and signed Kitna to a three-year, $8.6M contract.
Kitna would go on to start 17 games over the next two seasons, but the Bengals' fortunes didn't improve. However, in 2003, after the Bengals drafted Carson Palmer No. 1 overall, the Bengals stuck with Kitna as the starter and went 8-8 that season.
While certainly not a clear winner, Kitna is credited with being the right mentor for Palmer -- and he was signed more with the intent of being a backup than the clear starter. For that reason, I don't call it a bad signing.
2009: Michael Vick signs with the Eagles.
After Vick was released from prison for his involvement in a dog fighting ring, the Eagles took a chance after he was reinstated, signing him to a two year $6.875M contract.
Vick started just one game in 2009 and, after the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb, they seemed set on going with Kevin Kolb as their starter with Vick as the backup. But when Kolb got injured, Vick took over and played well, so the Eagles went with him as their starter.
Vick signed an extension in 2011 and played for three more seasons with the Eagles. He was originally brought in to be the backup, though, but that he became the starter made this a good signing. Whether you want to put it down as a clear winner, though, depends on how strict you want to be on my criteria that the intent is for the QB to start.
2015: Tyrod Taylor signs with the Bills.
Taylor spent his first four seasons as a third-string quarterback, then a backup, with the Baltimore Ravens. He had shown some promise in limited regular-season action and the preseason that the Bills decided to sign him.
The three-year, $3.35M contract the Bills gave him indicated they saw him as more of a backup than a starter, but Taylor would claim the starting job and hold it for the next three seasons, including a winning record in 2017.
However, the Bills did give Taylor an extension in 2016, so he didn't play out his entire time with the team under that original three-year deal. Thus, it's not what I would call a clear winner, but I'd say it's a respectable one that gave the Bills more than they may have expected.
2017: Nick Foles signs with the Eagles.
Foles had one good season in which he threw 27 touchdowns with two interceptions in 10 starts in 2013. However, after he regressed in 2014, he was traded to the Rams for Sam Bradford, in which draft picks were exchanged.
Foles eventually returned to the Eagles, signing a two-year, $11M deal to back up Carson Wentz. After Wentz was lost for the season after tearing his ACL, Foles took over as the starter and the Eagles won the Super Bowl.
Because this was a backup QB signing from the start, I don't consider it to be a winner, even with the Super Bowl win. However, it was a solid signing, because it gave the Eagles the right backup who could take over when the starter was lost to injury.
You also have quarterback signings in which the intent was for him to be the starter, but the results, while showing they weren't bad signings, don't show them to be a clear winner, either. Again, these will be the subject of debate.
2001: Brad Johnson signs with the Buccaneers.
Johnson had moderate success with the Vikings, but an ankle injury in 1998 led to Randall Cunningham replacing him as the starter. He was later traded to Washington for first and third-round picks in 1999 and a second-round pick in 2000 — and that was a trade I missed in my review of such trades. Washington went to the playoffs in 1999, but missed the playoffs in 2000.
Washington opted to go with Jeff George as their starter in 2001, though, and Johnson signed a five-year, $28M deal with the Bucs. They went 9-7 in his first season with the team, then went all the way to the Super Bowl in 2002 and won it. True, the Bucs had a dominant defense, but Johnson had one of his best seasons as a pro.
Unfortunately, things didn't work out so well after that, and Johnson was benched in 2004, then cut after the season. The Super Bowl win makes this at least a respectable signing, but his benching in 2004 keeps this one from being a clear winner.
2003: Jake Plummer signs with the Broncos.
A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 1997, Plummer showed promise early on and the Cardinals made the playoffs in his second year as the starter. However, the Cardinals never finished better than 7-9 after that, though some may have argued that the Cardinals didn't do a good job of building the team around him.
The Broncos opted to sign Plummer for seven years at $40.7M, a high sum at the time. The Broncos then made the playoffs the next three years, reaching the AFC title game in 2005. However, the Broncos opted to move up in 2006 to draft Jay Cutler and Plummer fell out of favor with the coaching staff, who benched him for the final five games of the season for Cutler.
Again, I'd call this a respectable signing, though it's not a clear winner.
2008: Chad Pennington signs with the Dolphins.
Pennington was a steady but not dominant performer in his eight seasons with the Jets, but he missed starts either because of injuries or benching for not being as good as some hoped.
The Dolphins needed a quarterback and gave Pennington a two-year, $11.5M contract. They finished 11-5 that year and went to the playoffs.
Pennington, though, started just four games in the next two seasons, so this isn't a clear winner among free agent signings. However, that playoff trip makes this a respectable signing.
2018: Kirk Cousins signs with the Vikings.
Washington's fourth-round pick in 2012 ultimately claimed the starting job in 2015, then got the franchise tag the next two seasons. Never able to come to terms on an extension with the team, he left in free agency for the Vikings.
The Vikings gave him a three-year, $84M contract that was fully guaranteed, a contract that few could have predicted would be that way.
The Vikings have had two winning seasons under Cousins with a playoff trip, but finished 7-9 this past season after giving Cousins an extension. Perhaps they bounce back, but for now, we'll call it a decent signing, but certainly not a winner.
2020: Phillip Rivers signs with the Colts.
Rivers had spent 16 years with the Chargers, 14 years as the starter, with the Chargers posting winning records in eight of those seasons. It was hard to imagine playing for any other team.
But the Chargers decided to move on after 2019, and Rivers signed a one-year, $25M deal with the Colts. They went 11-5 and made the playoffs.
Rivers then announced his retirement after the 2020 season. The Colts got about what they expected from the signing, but whether you think this was a winner or not depends on whether you think a QB should have been signed for more than one season.
While those signings can be debated, the rest of the signings on this list really aren't up for debate. Let's look at the ones that were clearly bad.
1994: Scott Mitchell to the Lions, four years, $21M: Considered one of the worst QB signings of all time, Mitchell's contract actually looks cheap compared to today's numbers. However, it was considered a big contract at the time, and all based on seven starts for the Dolphins in 1993 in which Mitchell looked the part of a starting QB. However, he was the first example of why you don't give starting money to QBs with a small sample size of starts.
1996: Neil O'Donnell to the Jets, five years, $24M: O'Donnell just had to be a quality starter, right? After all, the Steelers made the playoffs multiple years with him as the starter and were just coming off a Super Bowl trip. But after being paid a lot of money by the Jets, they went 8-12 in O’Donnell’s 20 starts over two seasons, before they parted ways.
1998: Rob Johnson to the Bills, five years, $25M: Here we go with another contract that ranks among the worst given to a QB, and another that serves as a warning to not pay starter money to a QB with a small sample size of starts. In this case, the Bills paid him big money based on one start for the Jaguars in 1997, in which he completed 22 of 28 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, he threw two interceptions, but hey, the Jaguars won, so hooray for QB wins!
2000: Jeff Blake to the Saints, four years, $14.7M: Blake had a couple of seasons with the Bengals in which he looked like a serviceable starter, but he never proved he was truly the guy. The Saints took a chance and gave Blake a four-year deal, and they went 7-4 in his 11 starts in 2000. However, he broke his foot that season, then Aaron Brooks took over as the starter and the Saints moved forward with him, cutting Blake after the 2001 season.
2001: Doug Flutie to the Chargers, six years, $30.3M: Considered to be too short to be an NFL quarterback, Flutie spent his early years as a backup, then played most of his career in the Canadian Football League, but returned to the NFL in 1998 and had moderate success with the Bills. The Chargers gave him a lengthy contract in 2001, despite him being 39 years old, and they went 5-11 in his first year as starter, before the Chargers turned over starting duties to second-round pick Drew Brees.
2004: Jeff Garcia to the Browns, four years, $25M: After some quality seasons with the Niners, the Browns thought they had the answer to their QB woes when they signed Garcia to this deal. He started just 10 games and was cut the following season, thus adding his name to that QB carousel that Browns fans endured for many years.
2006: Jon Kitna to the Lions, four years, $11.5M: While one can debate the worthiness of the Bengals adding Kitna back in 2001, there's no room for debate here. The Lions made it clear they were going with Kitna as their starting quarterback when they signed him to this contract. He put up a lot of passing yards in his three seasons with the team, but threw 44 touchdowns against 47 interceptions and was cut after the 2008 season.
2006: Brian Griese to the Bears: five years, $14.5M: After the Buccaneers cut Griese, when he tore his ACL after a promising start to the 2005 season, the Bears decided to add Griese. Despite the contract he signed, he spent most of the 2006 season as a backup to Rex Grossman, before getting his chance to start six games in 2007. He threw 10 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and was traded to the Bucs for a sixth-round pick in 2008.
2010: Jake Delhomme signs with the Browns, two years, $12.5M: Cut by the Panthers after seven seasons with the team, Delhomme signed a contract that signaled he was going to be the bridge to a player the Browns would draft and develop. He started just four games before being benched.
2012: Matt Flynn signs with the Seahawks, three years, $19.5M: After throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns in the Packers' season finale in 2011, many wondered if Flynn would be the next guy to get a big contract despite a small sample size. The Seahawks eventually signed him, though at least it was for less money that Scott Mitchell. Still, third-round pick Russell Wilson beat Flynn for the starting job and Flynn was traded to the Raiders after the season.
2014: Josh McCown signs with the Buccaneers, two years, $10M: The Bucs didn't give McCown a lot of money when they added him in free agency, but they went 1-10 in his 11 starts (he missed several games with a thumb injury) and he was cut after the season.
2015: Josh McCown signs with the Browns, three years, $14M: After he was cut, McCown signed with the Browns and was named the starter. He started eight games but his season was cut short because of a broken collarbone. McCown stuck around for another season as the backup, before the Browns released him.
2015: Brian Hoyer signs with the Texans, two years, $10.5M: Originally signed to be the bridge quarterback to a player the Texans would draft and develop, Hoyer started one game before he was benched for Ryan Mallett, who the Texans acquired in a trade with the Patriots. Mallett failed to impress and Hoyer started eight more games, with the Texans reaching the playoffs. However, he played poorly against the Chiefs in the wild card round and was released in 2016.
2016: Brock Osweiler signs with the Texans, four years, $72M: And here is the reason why the Texans cut Hoyer -- and where I remind everybody that giving big contracts to quarterbacks with a small sample size of starts is a bad idea. Osweiler, who started seven games for the Broncos in a season in which they won the Super Bowl, was given a deal that made it clear the Texans saw him as the starter. He started 14 games and, though the Texans made the playoffs, Osweiler played poorly and head coach Bill O'Brien didn't want him on the roster. Osweiler then was involved in one of the most infamous trades in NFL history (which I discussed previously).
2016: Chase Daniel signs with the Eagles, three years, $21M: If you wonder why backup quarterbacks get higher salaries these days than you think they should otherwise, here is why. After the Eagles gave Bradford a two-year contract to be their bridge QB, they turned around and made Daniel the highest-paid backup in the NFL. Though he was under the impression he'd have a chance to start, Daniel never got that chance, even after the Eagles traded Bradford to the Vikings, because they named Carson Wentz, who they traded up to No. 2 overall to select, their starter. Daniel requested his release in 2017 and got it.
2017: Brian Hoyer signs with the 49ers, two years, $12M: After signing a one-year, $2M contract with the Bears, but his season ending because of an injury in October of 2016, Hoyer took a deal with the Niners, in which they saw him as their bridge QB. Hoyer started just six games before being benched for C.J. Beathard.
2017: Mike Glennon signs with the Bears, three years, $45M: Glennon started 13 games in 2013 for the Buccaneers, but started just nine games in his remaining three seasons with the team and never looked like a worthy starter. The Bears still gave him a lot of money to be their bridge guy and he started just four games before Mitchell Trubisky took over.
2018: Sam Bradford signs with the Cardinals, two years, $20M: Bradford had talent but couldn't stay healthy, but the Cardinals needed somebody to start and went with Bradford. He lasted just two games before being benched for Josh Rosen. He was released in November, meaning the Cardinals avoided his $5M salary in 2021 and some incentives in the contract, but were still out the rest of the money.
2018: Case Keenum signs with the Broncos, two years, $36M: The Broncos haven't been able to find their clear starter since Peyton Manning retired, and Keenum was among their failed attempts to find their guy. Signed to be a bridge QB, Keenum started 16 games in 2018 and threw 18 touchdowns against three interceptions while the Broncos went 6-10. He was traded to Washington after the season when the Broncos changed coaching staffs and opted to trade for Joe Flacco.
2019: Nick Foles signs with the Jaguars, four years, $88M: Foles won a Super Bowl and he had shown promise in the past when he started 16 games, so this time, things were going to work out for him, right? The Jaguars thought so and gave him a big contract, but he started just one game before an injury led to Gardner Minshew taking over. Foles would start three more games later that season but never convinced the Jaguars that he was the guy. He was traded to the Bears after the season.
Tallying up the results, we have 33 free agent signings reviewed with 20 clear bad signings, and that alone is a rate of 60.6 percent of such acquisitions failing. There are just three clear successes, leaving a clear success rate of 9.1 percent. If you add the five signings in which QBs were intended to be starters and had a decent return, that's eight out of 33 for a 24.2 success rate.
Once again, we don't find a lot of success stories in free agency, particularly when it comes to signing guys who were mostly intended to be starters (and in one case, made the highest-paid backup). You might have a chance at finding a solid starter, but if you're looking for a clear winner, free agency isn't the place to look.
If you stick with clear successes, what have we learned thus far? Going back to my other installments, in reviewing major moves since true free agency came to the NFL in 1993:
* Trades for veterans if a first-round pick was highest involved had a success rate of 10 percent (though I forgot the Brad Johnson trade to Washington, which didn’t work out and lowered the success rate to 9.1 percent), a second-round pick highest involved had a success rate of 12.5 percent, a third-round pick highest involved had a success rate of 11 percent and a fourth-round pick highest involved had a success rate of 46.15 percent. Keep in mind that when your highest pick involved is from a lower round, you have lowered expectations for your return.
* Trades up the first round, or back into the first round, have a success rate of 20 percent if you include the two that are "so far, so good." If you don't, you have a success rate of 12 percent.
* Free agent signings have a success rate of 9.9 percent if you only include clear winners, and if you include those with a decent return, it's a success rate of 24.2 percent.
The verdict? It really depends on how strict you are with criteria, but one thing is clear: You need to look for value in any move you make.
But there's more to it than that, and that brings me to this point: If you make a bold move for a quarterback, you better be sure that he's "your guy" rather than just "a guy." I'll talk more about this in future installments.